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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 April 2019. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons. Outline. Highlights

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 29 April 2019 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits over the Amazon Basin and the Brazilian Plateau are still present but have decreased. • During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Brazil, southern Chile, northeastern Peru and southeastern Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of central and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay and central Bolivia. • For Days 1-7 (29 April – 05 May 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of northwestern South America, as well as the extreme southern Brazil and portions of southern Peru and southern Bolivia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of central Brazil, northern Argentina, southern Chile, Paraguay, Bolivia and northeastern Peru.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over portions of northern Brazil, southern Chile, northeastern Peru and southeastern Colombia. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of central and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay and central Bolivia.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over much of northern South America as well as Uruguay, southeastern Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of central and northern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, northern Peru and central Colombia.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Amazon Basin (~ 50 mm), the Brazilian Plateau (~ 200 mm).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are above-average across much of the tropical Pacific. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 21 – 27 Apr 2019, weak anomalous anticyclonic flow (center noted by red A) was observed over the extreme southern Brazil. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over northern and central Brazil and southeastern Argentina, and anomalous rising motion was observed elsewhere. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 21 – 27 Apr 2019, above-average temperature was seen over much of Brazil. Below-average temperature was observed over eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 29 April 2019–Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 29 April 2019– Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (29 April – 05 May 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of northwestern South America, as well as the extreme southern Brazil and portions of southern Peru and southern Bolivia. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of central Brazil, northern Argentina, southern Chile, Paraguay, Bolivia and northeastern Peru. • For Days 8-14 (06 – 12 May 2019), below-average precipitation is predicted over much of northern and central Brazil, Uruguay, southern Chile, Peru and northeastern Ecuador. Above-average precipitation is predicted for portions of northern Argentina, Paraguay, Colombia and Venezuela.

  13. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  14. Precipitation Climatology

  15. Precipitation Climatology Animation

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