By Dr J-F.K. AKINBAMI Energy Technology and Management Division

1. Climate Change and Energy: Issues, Prospects and Challenges for Sustainable Development in Nigeria By Dr J-F.K. AKINBAMI Energy Technology and Management Division Centre for Energy Research and Development Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria E-mail:akinbami_jfk@yahoo.com GSM: +234-(0)803-719-5198 Presented at the “CAPACITY BUILDING WORKSHOP FOR HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES’ COMMITTEE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE MEDIA” HAMDALA HOTEL, KADUNA, MAY 21 -24, 2009 Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

2. OUTLINE • Background • Energy Issues • Climate Change • Sustainable Development • Key Mitigation Technologies & Practices • Relationship between Emissions Mitigation and SD • Effects of Climate Policy on other Factors/Sectors • Climate Change and Other Issues • Co-Benefits of Climate Action • Changing Development Paths • Opportunities and Challenges to Emissions Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

4. Background - Energy • Energy is an essential input to a nation’s economic growth and development. In Nigeria, energy plays a dual role. In addition to being an essential input to all economic activities, it is also the country’s major foreign exchange earner. Increasing reliable and adequate supply of energy will be needed to support all the economic activities of the country in the nation’s developmental programs to attain an enviable standard of living for its citizens. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

5. Energy (Contd) • Expectedly, as a developing country, historical energy consumption pattern reveals an increasing trend as evidenced by Figure 1. As energy consumption is fundamental to economic development, it is also a precursor of environmental emissions. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

6. Energy (Contd) Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

7. Energy (Contd) Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

8. Energy Contd Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

9. Energy (Contd) • Presently, Nigeria’s energy supply system is characterized by technical inefficiency and gas flaring. In addition to these and as a result of the expected increase in future energy demand, there will be increased greenhouse gas emissions which will also increase the total build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

10. Energy (Contd) • For example, CO2 emissions from the energy system were 78 million tonnes (MTon) in 1980, 83 MTon in 1985, 90 MTon in 1990 and 98 MTon in 1995. This implied that between 1980 and 1995, CO2 emissions increased at an annual average rate of 1.5%. At this rate, CO2 emission would be 106, 114 and 123 MTon in 2000, 2005 and 2010 respectively. Hence measures to either mitigate the emissions or sinks to absorb them need to be put into the system. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

11. Energy (Contd) • The threat, climate change, posed by the continued emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere calls for a global action to combat it. Climate change has been described by scientists, environmentalists and politicians as a threat unprecedented in human experience. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

12. Equivalent carbon dioxide • Equivalent CO2 (CO2e) is the concentration of CO2 that would cause the same level of radiative forcing as a given type and concentration of greenhouse gas. Examples of such greenhouse gases are methane, perfluorocarbons and nitrous oxide. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

13. Equivalent carbon dioxide(Contd) • Carbon dioxide equivalency is a quantity that describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gas, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming potential (GWP), when measured over a specified timescale (generally, 100 years). Carbon dioxide equivalency thus reflects the time-integrated radiative forcing, rather than the instantaneous value described by CO2e. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

14. Background – Climate Change • The various definitions of climate change in the literature presuppose a definite change in climate which may be due to both anthropogenic activities and natural variability and this change refers to statistically significant variations in climate that persist for an extended period typically of at least decades. This change also includes shifts in the frequency and magnitude of sporadic weather events as well as the slow continuous rise in global mean surface temperature (Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 2002). Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

15. Climate Change (Contd) • The IPCC in its 1995 Climate Change Report concluded that there was a “discernible human influence” on the earth’s climate. This gives an indication that the observed “human influence” can be thoroughly examined with a view to curtailing and containing their negative impacts on the climate. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

16. Climate Change (Contd) • The threat of global climate change has been described as the biggest environmental challenge of the 21st century. It is hard to conceive of a more difficult policy issue to analyse than global climate change. The climatological dynamics are mind-numbingly complex, while the scope of the policy issues raised, encompassing economic, ethical, social, and even political aspects, seem limitless. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

17. Climate Change (Contd) • Views on global climate change range from doom sayers who predict, and perhaps even look forward to, humanity's eventual demise; to nay sayers who either deny the existence of global climate change or even welcome it. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

18. Climate Change (Contd) • However, climate change policy framework should be realistic and should form an integral part of the national development planning process in every country. Such framework will focus on policies at the national level to be implemented for the purpose of ameliorating the negative impacts of global climate change. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

19. Background - Sustainable Development • While the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) through the well-known Brundtland Commission Report provided the baseline conceptualization of sustainable development, 2 of the many interpretations of this concept predominate the literature. These are: Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

20. Sustainable Development (Contd) • Wealth Approach • This recognizes SD as that which fully appreciates the value of natural and built capital so that the next generation can inherit a stock of assets no less than those inherited by the preceding generation and thereby maintain intergenerational equity. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

21. Sustainable Development (Contd) • Mosaic Approach • This breaks SD into 3 main components: • Ecological sustainability which requires that development is compatible with the maintenance of ecological processes • Economic sustainability which requires that development be economically feasible and, • Social sustainability which requires that development be socially acceptable Hence SD is viewed in terms of ecological, economic and social sustainability Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

22. Sustainable Development (Contd) • Consumption of fossil fuels contributes significantly to the building up of GHG emissions globally • Hence mitigation options in the energy sector will play a crucial role in the overall climate change strategy. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

23. Key Mitigation Technologies and Practices • Currently commercially available • Improved supply and distribution efficiency in the Power sector, & Oil & Gas Sector • Fuel switching from coal to gas • Nuclear power • Renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

24. Key Mitigation Technologies and Practicescontd… • Projected to be commercialized by 2030 • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) for gas • Biomass and coal-fired electricity • Advanced nuclear power • Advanced renewable energy, including ocean energy, concentrating solar and solar PV. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

25. Two-Way Relationship between Mitigation and Sustainable Development • Climate policy can have positive or negative effects on other factors • --Ancillary benefits of co-benefits • CC  SD • Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies • --Requires mainstreaming climate change in decision-making. • SD  CC Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

26. Effects of Climate Policy on other Factors CC  SD Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

27. Climate Change and Other Issues Climate Change is a cross-cutting issue/phenomenon cutting across all sectors of an economy Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

28. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

29. Examples of Side-effects of Climate Mitigation Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

30. Sustainable Development • Co-benefits of Climate Action (Country-specific) • Reduced local air pollution • Better housing • Greater energy security • Energy access • Balance of trade benefits • Biodiversity benefits – with good forestry policy. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

31. Changing Development Paths • Climate policy alone will not solve the climate problem • Economic problem • Energy problem, forestry, housing, water, etc… • Decision about macroeconomic policy, multilateral development bank lending, insurance practices, electricity market reform, energy security and forest conservation, for example, which may seem unrelated to climate policy, can significantly reduce emissions. • Mitigation is not just an environmental problem • Making development more sustainable can make major contribution to mitigation • Need multiple actors involved • Government, business (private sector), civil society, communities, families and individuals. • At all scales – international, national, regional, provincial, local Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

32. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria • Energy Efficiency • Considerable scope for more rational energy use in Nigeria • Both supply side and demand side efficiency is low, e.g. • Supply side: High T & D losses >30% • Demand side: Boiler efficiencies in most industries are low. • For instance a combustion analysis of boilers in a beverage plant in SW Nigeria revealed that it was possible to obtain a fuel saving of about 12% by improving boiler efficiency alone. This would reduce the total energy cost of the plant by at least 1.1%/ annum and also cut down CO2 emissions by at least 1071 tons/year Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

33. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria (Contd) • Most industries are sited in Metropolitan and Cosmopolitan environment such as Lagos State • Statistics reveal that 55% of the total national petroleum products consumption takes place in Lagos State particularly in the transport sector. This can be greatly reduced through optimal use of available transport modes in the State Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

34. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria(contd.) • Fuel switching • Huge gas reserve provides ample opportunity to switch to lower carbon fuel • Challenges are: • the investment needed for gas infrastructure • institutional framework for the industry • pricing of gas, etc. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

35. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria(contd.) • Elimination of flaring will lead to annual GHG emission reduction of about 24.7 million ton of CO2 equivalent. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

36. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria(contd.) • Renewable Energy • Opportunity for decentralized energy system exist e.g. Small Hydropower (SHP), Solar for water pumping, lighting etc., Wind Energy. • Initial cost of devices is high but life cost is competitive with other energy sources. • Integrated policy and vigorous implementation strategy is needed to facilitate rapid diffusion of RE in the nation’s energy mix. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

37. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria(contd.)Proposed strategy for sustainable forest-energy-environment interactions in Nigeria • Technology option Time Region Targeted sector/income grp • Small-scale Hydropower LT All regions with available resources Rural • Improved Fuelwood Stove ST All regions Urban Poor & Rural Populace • Improved Kerosene Stove ST- MT All regions Urban • Biogas MT All regions Rural & Urban Poor • Coal Briquette MT All regions especially coal deposits exist Urban • Solar PV MT – LT All regions Rural sector & Medium/High income Urban Dwellers • A mixture of agroforestry, afforestation and forest protection ST – LT All regions Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

38. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria(contd.) • Industrial Energy Efficiency • Improved Cookstoves • Building Energy Efficiency • Transportation Energy • Mass Transit – BRT in Lagos State • Metroline • Intermodal Transportation Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

39. Opportunities for Mitigation Technologies in Nigeria(contd.) • Energy Generation • Decentralised Energy Generation • Solar PV • Small Hydropower • Wind Power • Biodiesel using Jatropha Plant • Waste to Power Production – eg Oko-Baba Sawmill in Lagos State, Ijebu Ode, Ijebu North, Ijebu North East and Odogbolu Local Government Areas of Ogun State, Rice Husk in Rice Mills in Ebonyi State • Biogas Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

40. Essential Documents on Energy Issues in the Country Some of the Documents needing the attention of the House with respect to Energy & CC • National Energy Policy • Renewable Energy Master Plan • National Energy Master Plan • Petroleum Bill still being debated in the House Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

41. Suggested Way Forward Existing Institution to address Climate Change • While it can be said that there are existing institutions to address climate change . The Federal Ministry of Housing and Environment is a policy making body which makes it inadequate to also be the implementing body to address issues concerning climate change in the country, even though there ia a climate change desk in the ministry. The National Designated Office on climate change is presently like a baby without adequate parenting making it difficult to function properly. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

42. Suggested Way Forward (Contd) • A National Climate Change Commission which is established and backed by an Act of the National Assembly, with well defined objectives and functions and adequate funding will be able to stand and address the issues of climate change and global warming and global cooling as they relate to Nigeria, West Africa sub-region, the African continent and the rest of the world. This I know the Hon House has started working on. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

43. Issues to be addressed by the Commission • As is well known, climate change has many implications for national development andglobal futures: for sustainability, equity and growth.  The effects of climate change permeate through all the sectors of a nation’s economy. Much current debate and policy action focuses on resolving future problems through the'mainstreaming' of climate change into development initiatives Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

44. Issues to be addressed by the Commission (Contd) • As the focal point on all issues relating to climate change in the country, some of the issues that the Commission will address include (but not exhaustive): • a) Identifying the various causal agents of climate change in the country • b) How to mitigate the causal agents of climate change and its consequences • c) Identification of the degree of susceptibility and vulnerability of people groups and regions and communities in the country to climate change and its consequences • d) How various people groups, regions and communities can adapt to climate change and its consequences Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

45. Issues to be addressed by the Commission (Contd) • e) Generate and establish a National Databank on climate change and its consequences for the country • f) Generate empirical data for policy and decision making on climate change in the country • g) Coordinate inter-agency and inter-ministerial cooperation on mitigating and adapting to climate change and its consequences • h) Create awareness on climate change and its consequences to the policy and decision makers in both public and private sectors as well as to the general populace right down to the rural settings Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

46. Issues to be addressed by the Commission (Contd) • i) Role of curriculum development in the educational sector to introduce climate change mitigation and adaptation techniques and strategies into our educational system so as to inculcate a lifestyle of climate change mitigation and adaptation into our national psyche • j) Roles of various tiers of government (local, state, federal) and even urban and rural communities and regions in climate change mitigation and adaptation • k) Sub-regional, regional and other international cooperation to mitigate climate change and its consequences • l) Promote research, development, demonstration and dissemination (R,D,D&D) on climate change mitigation and adaptation science, technologies, strategies and techniques Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

47. ACTION NOW!!! • Action must be taken NOW! NOW!! AND NOW!!! • To reduce the anthropogenic activities that enhance the negative effects of CC • To put in place necessary structures and infrastructures for effective adaptation to both current and future impacts of CC Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media

48. Thank you. Capacity Building Workshop for House of Rep Committe on Climate Change and the Media