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Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274)

Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274). Peter J. Hayes, Senior Climate Change Specialist, ADB (CWRD) phayes@adb.org Mark Allington, Managing Director ICF International mallington@icfi.com Wind Energy Status in Asia:

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Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274)

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  1. Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274) Peter J. Hayes, Senior Climate Change Specialist, ADB (CWRD) phayes@adb.org Mark Allington, Managing Director ICF International mallington@icfi.com Wind Energy Status in Asia: 2nd. ADB Quantum Leap in Wind Conference (Asia Clean Energy Forum 2011), Manila, 20 June 2011

  2. Genesis of wind resource map effort • TA7274 Enabling Climate Change Interventions in Central & West Asia • Region: Highly vulnerability to CC, high abatement ops • Need for Vulnerability & RE (solar & wind) resource maps • Formulation of high resolution wind resource maps (10 months)

  3. TA 7274 map coverage • Afghanistan • Armenia • Azerbaijan • Georgia • Kazakhstan • Kyrgyzstan • Pakistan • Tajikistan • Turkmenistan • Uzbekistan

  4. Why Map Wind Opportunities? • Allows investors to assess the energy yield, scale of investment needed and possible returns, at a range of power purchase tariffs, across a geographical area • Allows comparison of the relative economic viability of different locations • Facilitates dialogue on what needs to change to attract investment

  5. Assessment of Renewable EnergyPotential within TA 7274 Ten CWA countries Wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar

  6. Example: Kazakhstan wind

  7. Wind theoretical resource Wind power density and energy yield (source: NREL) Average annual wind speed GIS data at 100m hub height, grid square size ~10km2 (2 arc-minutes)

  8. Kazakhstan wind – theoretical resource

  9. Wind ecological resource calculation Weighted exclusion factors applied for: • Airports/runway alignments, railroads, urban areas • National borders (5km buffer) • Bird migration pathways • Areas >20km away from roads (for construction access) • Seismic danger areas • Areas with elevation >3500m or slopes >33% • All environmentally protected areas

  10. Kazakhstan wind – ecological resource

  11. Wind economic resource calculation • Capital costs (capex) $2,500/kW • Grid connection costs: $55,000/km • Operational lifetime: 25 years • Nearest electricity grid: 200 ha urban Others • Straight line depreciation period: 20 years • Income tax rate: 20% • Operating/maintenance costs: 2% capex • Discount rate: 8% or 12% • Power purchase tariff USD/MWh: varied • Grid square assumed economically viable at a given tariff / discount rate combination if Net Present Value is positive after operational lifetime

  12. Kazakhstan – infrastructure and ADB project locations

  13. Kazakhstan wind – economically viable resource at 12% discount rate Click here to start loop

  14. Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus tariff at different discount rates USD/MWh power purchase tariff (25 year lifetime)

  15. Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus tariff at 12% discount rate 10.4 GW USD/MWh power purchase tariff (25 year lifetime)

  16. Kazakhzstan wind – best sites

  17. Limitations • This method can guide where pre-feasibility study work is likely to be worthwhile • However it does not replace site-specific, technical and economic investigations and costing • Accuracy of wind speed estimates is around +/-10%

  18. GIS Visualization & Decision-Making Tool: Demonstration

  19. Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West Asia (TA 7274) Peter J. Hayes, Senior Climate Change Specialist, ADB (CWRD) phayes@adb.org Mark Allington, Managing Director ICF International mallington@icfi.com Wind Energy Status in Asia: 2nd. ADB Quantum Leap in Wind Conference (Asia Clean Energy Forum 2011), Manila, 20 June 2011

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