Global Climate Change and Uncertainty

1. Global Climate Change and Uncertainty David B. MacNeill Fisheries Specialist NY Sea Grant Extension SUNY Oswego dbm4@cornell.edu

2. Global Climate Change and Uncertainty Apocalypse Public perceptions Kyoto Heresy Biodiversity Al Gore Greenhouse gases Conspiracy IPCC Junk Science Disaster Human dimensions Polar bears Human behavior Chicanery Tradeoffs Glaciers Climate models Communication Decision-making Adaptation Mitigation Scenarios Policy implementation Social Sciences

3. This Presentation: • Broad-brush overviewof climate change uncertainties, communication etc. from literature sources, extension experience with scientific uncertainty. • Notan indictment of science or an admonishment of scientists, policy makers, government or the lay community!!

4. The uncertainty: What poker hand will I draw next? Understanding the concepts of risk and uncertainty with a deck of cards?? The Dead Man’s Hand: unlucky for Wild Bill Hickok? Therisk:What is the probability of drawing it?(<1%)

5. But, the card deck changes unexpectedly…… Death cards Other cards The Risk ?

6. Some Climate Change Perspectives • A complex, multidisciplinary issue of long-term global consequence, that demands: • Best available information • New assessment, predictive, decision-making tools • A carefully planned extension/outreach strategy • Better PR for science • An opportunity to: • Inform communities: climate science, risks, abatement and science 101 • Assist coastal communities: decision-making

7. Global Climate Model

8. Climate Change Complexity: • Many different disciplines. • Highly uncertain events; outcomes poorly defined. • Interactive anthropogenic and natural events. • Future outcomes sensitive to small changes in current conditions. • Incomplete understanding of climate system. • Imprecise models: feedbacks, interactions, parameter values. • Huge jigsaw puzzle having 10s of thousands of pieces. • Compilation: decades of intensive, international research.

9. Uncertainty leads to those nagging questions Is climate change real?, are humans responsible? • What are the impacts?, What should we do? • Why: • is science uncertain? • do scientists disagree? change their minds? • don’t scientists always have the answer? • do results contradict?

10. Uncertainty paradigms • Uncertainty is unwelcome, and needs to be avoided. Science must eliminate uncertainty through more and better research. • Uncertainty is undesirable, but unavoidable. Science must estimate and quantify uncertainty as well as possible. • Uncertainty creates opportunities. Science must contribute to more inclusive, understandable discussions. • Uncertainty is an integral part of decision-making. Science must have more societal influence.

11. Communicating Science and UncertaintiesWhy even bother ??? • PR: The process of science. • Restore credibility of science: increased transparency. • Provide accessible information/knowledge to decision-makers. • Decision-making: accurate and collaborative. • Increase public support/involvement: decision-making • Enhance societal abilities: adaptation & mitigation • GCC interactions: science and human ecology

12. Three Arguments for Climate Change • Climate is changing: analyses of many indicators • Human activities have contributed to increases in green house gas emissions • Scientific deliberations and large-scale computer models suggest potential for climate change from anthropogenic influences • High degree of confidence: weight of evidence from expert opinion

13. Is climate really changing? Sub-surface ocean temperatures Surface temperature record Convincing evidence Climate proxies Sea level Sea Ice Glacial record BUT.. Earth’s resiliency? Climate sensitivity Contentious Points Climate cycles Model predictive power Remote sensing calibration Policies: people or nature Climate proxy accuracy Natural vs. anthropogenic Solar activity

14. Seeing is Believing? Muir Glacier Alaska, August 2004. photo by B.F. Molnia Muir Glacier Alaska, August 1940.photo by W.O. Field

15. An exaggerated view….. “Science is sloppy - a collection of useless facts”. “You’re arrogant, out-of touch and have impractical ideas”. “You’ve been wrong before.” “Prove it.” “You just don’t understand.” “It’s too complicated”. “We know what is best.” “It’s not our job to explain it to you”. “We’re scientists, not interpreters”. Scientist Non-scientist Uncertainty

16. Some major challenges • Continuing uncertainties on climate system sensitivity to various feedbacks (e.g., clouds, water vapor, snow). • Several natural modes of climate variability have been identified and described, but their predictability is uncertain. • Need to improve understanding of whether and how human impacts may alter natural climate variability. • Do not yet have confident assessments of the likelihood of abrupt climate changes. • Insufficient understanding of effects of climate variability and change on extreme events. • Limited capabilities at regional scales. • Need better means for identifying, developing, and providing climate information required for policy and resource management decisions.

17. Mac’s Uncertainty Concept Model Stochastic (Surprises) Climate System Epistemic (Unknowns) Scientists Science Knowledge Knowledge communication (translation) Non-Scientists Human reflexive(volition) Decisions

18. Mac’s Uncertainty Concept Model Stochastic (Surprises) “To comprehend science as a responsible citizen…both contentand reasoning are essential. The absence of one or the other may produce laughter, but not good science.” Paul Gross. Learning Science: Content with Reason. American Educator Fall 2009: 35-40 Climate System Epistemic (Unknowns) Scientists Science Reasoning Knowledge Knowledge communication (translation) Content Non-Scientists Human reflexive(volition) Decisions

19. Mac’s Uncertainty Concept Model “To comprehend science as a responsible citizen…both contentand reasoning are essential. The absence of one or the other may produce laughter, but not good science.” Paul Gross. Learning Science: Content with Reason. American Educator Fall 2009: 35-40 Surprises Climate System Unknowns Scientists Science Reasoning Knowledge Knowledge communication (translation) Content Non-Scientists Human reflexive(volition) Decisions

20. Different Roles of Science in GCC Policy Pure scientist interpretation Politicians Science arbiter Scientific Knowledge Policy makers Decision making Policy Honest broker opinions Stakeholders ?? Issue advocate Advocacy Roger Pielke Jr.

21. How does science work, anyway? 1. Observe and describe something of interest 2. Make an informed guess about why or how something interesting happens 3. Check out how it (our speculation) stands up to what we know or what information we can get 4. Use our judgment whether to (tentatively) accept it, or change, improve or replace it Susan Haack

22. Addressing uncertainties • Identify • Characterize: source, magnitude • Solicit expert judgments: level of “confidence” • Sensitivity analysis: range of probable model outcomes assessed with model using a range of values various inputs, upper and lower bound • Quantify: probabilistic analysis (Frequentist and Bayesian), probabilistic distributions, deterministic analysis and hybrids • Clarify, document range and distributions • Articulate and communicate: probabilistic and scenarios

23. Warmer, dryer summers Warmer, wetter winters Increased spring flooding Changes in sea/lake levels, water currents, thermal structure Increased storm frequency, severity Droughts, crop loss, famine Invasive species, new or re-emerging pathogens, parasites More hyperthermia deaths Coastal infrastructure/tourism Habitat damage/loss Loss of biodiversity, extinctions? Some predicted impacts of climate change? In-direct Direct • Technological advances • Longer growing seasons • New agriculture/tourism opportunities. • More snow? • Reduced heating costs • Fewer hypothermia deaths

24. What are they really saying? Nature: too complex. Conflicting data. Models: poor predictors. Exaggerated impacts. Doom/gloom vs. facts. Earth’s resiliency. Strategies: cost/benefits? Consensus:evidence supports GCC Less consensus:drivers, impacts, strategies, policies GCC heretics, infidels, skeptics, nay-sayers, cynics, deniers??

25. What is the matter with science?The debate continues…… • Dyson (1993) • Consensus: peer pressure (entrepreneurial science) vs. debate • Public fear drives funding priorities = politicization of science • Science's failure to address global welfare vs. unrealistic expectations • Rubin (2001) • Science is not the sole repository of the truth • Little self-limitation on deliverable truths • Get the facts straight vs. overselling science • Scientific authority fosters hidden agendas that short-circuit debate • Participatory decision making impeded by science education shortfalls • Commoner (1971) • Illusion of scientific objectivity • Grant et al. (2004) • Popper’s vs. psychological v • Benedikter (2004) basic ideologies and mechanisms not fully visible (psychologically) • Malnes (2006) • Mixed messages: duplicity vs. extraneous diversions

26. Classical, Modern & Post-Normal Science • Classical: • Observations • Sense experiments • Subjective judgments • Past experience the Truth! Absolute • predictions • probabilities • possible explanations • disconnected policy • adversarial • communication gaps • Modern / Normal: • Exclusive, remote • Non-interdisciplinary • Experiments/models • Data analysis/interpretation • Hypothesis testing Reductionist, “puzzle-solving” • “Post-Normal” • Inclusive • Natural & social sciences • Complexity/risk/urgency • Systems approach • Cost/benefits • Public debate • shared decision making • problems solving • confidence/trust building • Anti-science perception Precautionary, risk management