Overview of UK Oil, Gas, and Alternative Energy Industry and Low Carbon Options for the Future

1. Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future ARAMCO 3rd July 2013 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia Н.К.Тови

2. Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future Energy is a key driver for Modern Economies However, energy production, generation and use is having an impact on the Climate. • Brief Review of Climate Change Issues • Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO2 issues • Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future • Technical options to reduce demand • Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management • Conclusions

3. Increasing Occurrence of Drought 3

4. Increasing Occurrence of Flood 4

5. Arctic Sea Ice Cover 1979 - 2012 • Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 1979 ~ 7.01 million sq km • Red line outlines extent for reference • Minimum Summer Sea Ice in 2012 ~ 3.44 million sq km • a loss of 51% in 33 years • Significantly lower in 2012 than average minimum • Source http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-seaicemin.html

6. Is Global Warming natural or man-made? • Natural causes • Earth’s Orbit • Sunspot Activity • Volcanic Eruptions • Etc. • Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

7. Temperature variations in last 160 years www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_11-014_Warmest_Year.htm

8. Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future • Brief Review of Climate Change Issues • Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO2 issues • Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future • Technical options to reduce demand • Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management • Conclusions

9. What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? How do UK and Saudi Arabia compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? Saudi Arabia France World Average UK Per capita Carbon Emissions (tonnes per capita) 9

10. Fossil Fuel Options for Electricity Generation High and Low Pressure Turbines Fuel In Coal/ Oil/ Gas/ Nuclear LP HP Boiler Generator Pump Condenser Schematic of a conventional coal, gas, oil or nuclear power plant Typical Maximum Efficiency for coal/oil/gas ~ 38 - 39% with super critical steam conditions ~ 42 – 45% Nuclear Efficiencies ~ 30 – 34% for PWR ~ 38 – 40% for AGR

11. Combined Cycle Gas Turbine for Electricity Generation Air LP HP C T WHB Generator Generator Combustion Exhaust Pump Condenser Gas C – Compressor T – Turbine WHB – Waste Heat Boiler Efficiency 47 – 56%

12. Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. • Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. • Transmission/Distribution losses • UK ~ 8%: Saudi Arabia 9%: India ~ 24%

13. CO2 Emissions and Electricity (kg/kWh) Saudi Arabia UK Saudi Arabia World Average 0.550 France Overall: UK ~500 gm/kWh: France ~80 gm/kWh Saudi Arabia ~700 gm/kWh 13

14. Electricity Generation Mix in selected Countries Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro/ Tidal/Wave Other Renewables Biofuels/Waste 14

15. Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future • Brief Review of Climate Change Issues • Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO2 issues • Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future • Technical options to reduce demand • Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management • Conclusions

16. Import Gap Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK Until 2004, the UK was a net exporter of gas. Currently only 50% now provided by UK sources. Reduction because of switch back to coal In early March 2013, technical issues with pipe line from Norway and restrictions on LNG imports made UK gas supply tight. In late March things became even more critical with less than 1 days supply available.

17. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods ? * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

18. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020. ? Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011

19. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes – operating for 12 years On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee

20. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich

21. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

22. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

23. Options for Renewable Electricity Generation in 2020 in desert climates but not in UK Central Solar Power Plants in Spain In foreground PS10 – 11 MW – in background PS20 – 20 MW A 500 MW plant is due for completion in 2013 at Crescent Dunes in USA

24. Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Plant Air G G WHB LP HP C T C – Compressor T – Turbine G – Generator WHB – Waste Heat Boiler Combustion Exhaust Condenser Pump Gas Parabolic Solar Power Plant Example: Hassi R’Mel , Algeria 25 MW Solar & 130 MW Combined Cycle

25. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

26. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable No sound on video Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

27. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Video of device There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device ScotRenewables Floating device Open Hydro commissioned off Eday – Sept 2007 Alstom Device seen at Hatston April 2013 Video of device There is no sound to this video, but it demonstrates some of technicalities of the device Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

28. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs In Orkney – Churchill Barriers Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south. Would save 40000 tonnes of CO2 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

29. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

30. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified

31. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics are mature but much more expensive than on shore wind. • Tidal and wave are not options for next 10 - 15 years except as demonstration projects. [technically immature ] • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee • [9th May 2011] If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

32. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • the UK will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • The majority of which will be imported at volatile prices • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another

33. Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation Version suitable for Office 2003, 2007 & 2010 • 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020. • 1 new coal station with CCS each year after 2020 • 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 - 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 15+ GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now • No electric cars or heat pumps Offshore Wind Imported Gas Oil UK Gas Onshore Wind Existing Coal Oil Other Renewables Existing Nuclear Existing Coal New Coal Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. New Nuclear? Existing Nuclear Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. 33

34. Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future • Brief Review of Climate Change Issues • Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO2 issues • Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future • Technical options to reduce demand • Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management • Conclusions

35. Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale Combined Heat/Cooling and Power 3% Radiation Losses 11% Flue Losses Gas Exhaust Heat Exchanger Engine Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat 36% 61% Flue Losses 86% Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly Heat Exchanger

36. UEA’s Combined Heat and Power 3 units each generating up to 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat

37. Carbon Savings at UEA CHP Plant Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide 37

38. Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale Combined Heat/Cooling and Power Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer 38 38

39. A more efficient way to provide Air-Conditioning 绝热 高温高压 Heat rejected High Temperature High Pressure 节流阀 Compressor 冷凝器 Throttle Valve Condenser 蒸发器 低温低压 Evaporator Low Temperature Low Pressure 压缩器 为冷却进行热提取 Heat extracted for cooling Electricity A typical Air conditioning/Refrigeration Unit Uses electricity to drive compressor

40. 外部热 Heat from external source 绝热 高温高压 Heat rejected High Temperature High Pressure 吸收器 Desorber 节流阀 冷凝器 Throttle Valve Condenser 热交换器 Heat Exchanger 蒸发器 低温低压 Evaporator Low Temperature Low Pressure W ~ 0 吸收器 为冷却进行热提取 Absorber Heat extracted for cooling Absorption Heat Pump Adsorption Heat pump reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated

41. UEA’s AborptionChiller A 1 MW Adsorption chiller 1 MW 吸附冷却器 • Uses Waste Heat from CHP • provides most of chilling requirements in summer • Reduces electricity demand in summer • Increases electricity generated locally • Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually

42. Sustainable Options for the future? • Energy Generation • Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels and schools – generally less suitable for other businesses • Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation • Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). • The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! • Renewable Heat Incentive available from late 2013/ early 2014 • Area required for 1 kW peak varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm depending on technology and manufacturer • Approximate annual estimate of generation • = installed capacity * 8760 * 0.095 hours in year load/capacity factor of 9.5%

43. Options available for the Householder • Energy Generation • Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines • Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locations Not generally recommended Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence

44. Alternative Strategies for Financing • Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor. • Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income. • Schemes exist for • small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less affected by planning issues • Domestic/community PV up to 50kW Images courtesy of WindCrop Honningham Thorpe, Norfolk

45. Options available for the Householder/Community • Energy Generation • Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy • Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity but not, at present for those with mains gas. • Most convenient if running on pellets • Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate

46. Options available for heating buildings– Heat Pumps Ground Source: Heat Pumps ~ twice floor area of building is required for heat collection. Best performance with under floor heating. Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed. Retro fitting air-source heat pumps with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank

47. Overview of oil, gas and alternative energy industry in the UK and Low Carbon options for the future • Brief Review of Climate Change Issues • Overview of Energy Demand and consequential CO2 issues • Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK including Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future • Technical options to reduce demand • Reducing Demand and Carbon Emissions and saving money through Awareness and good Management • Conclusions

48. Raising Awareness How many people know what 9 (or 16) tonnes of CO2 looks like? On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. In Saudi Arabia it is 16 tonnes In UK ~5 hot air balloons per person per year. In Saudi Arabia ~ 9 hot air balloons "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

49. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

50. Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia Low Energy Lighting Installed • Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005. • Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. • Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault • Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.