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Transitioning the WSA- Enlil M odel into Operations at the U.S. National Weather Service

Transitioning the WSA- Enlil M odel into Operations at the U.S. National Weather Service George Millward ( CU CIRES/NOAA SWPC) KSWC Space Weather conference – 10/11/2012. Intended Space Weather Benefits. Provide improved warning of Co-rotating Interacting Regions (CIRs)

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Transitioning the WSA- Enlil M odel into Operations at the U.S. National Weather Service

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  1. Transitioning the WSA-EnlilModel into Operations at the U.S. National Weather Service George Millward (CU CIRES/NOAA SWPC) KSWC Space Weather conference – 10/11/2012

  2. Intended Space Weather Benefits • Provide improved warning of Co-rotating Interacting Regions (CIRs) • General “situational awareness” • Time of arrival at Earth • Geomagnetic storm response • Provide 1 to 4 days advance warning of oncoming CMEs • General “situational awareness” • Probability of an interaction with Earth (“direct hit very probable”, “possible glancing blow”) • Time of arrival at Earth (Aiming for accuracy of +/- 6 hours) • Storm intensity (Tricky, modeled CME has no information about B field magnitude or orientation) • Storm duration • Pave the way for future space weather model transitions: Geospace Upper atmosphere / ionosphere

  3. WSA-Enlil at NWS: Timeline • October 2009 : Begin Transitioning project • Design of WSA-Enlil CONOPS • Development / testing of CME ‘cone’ tools • Installation of WSA-Enlil on DEVCCS • Model run scripts / networking (etc.) • Development of Solar Predictions Interface (SPI) • Post-processing / output products • October 2011 : WSA-Enlil in ‘parallel operations’ at NWS • December 2011 : WSA-Enlil fully operational on NCEP supercomputers • April 2012 (ie, Now) : Deployment of SPI and Analysis tools into SWPC Forecast Office • March – September : Forecaster Training • October 2012 : Fully Operational (SWFO in full control) • 2013 : Version 2 development (SWPT)

  4. WSA-Enlil A comprehensive, 3D, MHD, time-dependent, forecast model of the Heliosphere (solar wind) inner boundary at 21.5 Rs - WSA CME propagating outwards magnetic field color – velocity field

  5. WSA-Enlil CONOPS NSO NASA NGDC Archive outputs GONG data SOHO LASCO data Forecast products SWFO Ambient & CME inputs SWFO Customers Process model results Monitor CME event NCEP CCS STEREO data Model results Generate graphical products Generate CME cone data Inform improved forecast WSA-Enlil model run NASA

  6. Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model: INPUT: Solar photospheric magnetic field (NSO, GONG) WSA Steady, co-rotating “ambient” background flow at 21.5Rs OUTPUT: Global velocity and magnetic polarity

  7. CME ‘Cone’ Geometry radial velocity CME parameters calculated from analysis of SOHO and STEREO coronagraph images radius latitude longitude

  8. WSA-Enlil Model Run Schematic CME 1 CME 2 10 day model startup 5 days CME injection forecast T = 0 T = -15 T = 5 days 1.5 hours Wallclock time on NWS CCS

  9. WSA-Enlil production run cycle at NCOmodel runs every 2 hours Preprocessed GONG data Preprocessed GONG data Preprocessed GONG data Preprocessed GONG data CME Detected WSA WSA WSA WSA CME Cone Data Enlil Enlil Enlil with CME Enlil 00Z 02Z 04Z 08Z

  10. ACE WSA-Enlil

  11. CME ‘Cone’ Geometry radial velocity CME parameters calculated from analysis of SOHO and STEREO coronagraph images radius latitude longitude

  12. b a h α

  13. b a h α Ellipse parameters gives CME propagation direction and cone angle. A second coronagraph image yields propagation velocity.

  14. Built the ellipse formulation into an operational tool. • Subsequent V&V studies revealed the technique to be highly problematic in many real world situations.

  15. Problem: Which ellipse ?

  16. Problem: Which ellipse ?

  17. Problem: Ellipses are “freeform” – no constraints on eccentricity vs offset Cone ½ Angle = 83 degrees (full Angle 166 !!)

  18. Full 3D graphics solution – can only represent ‘correct’ cones originating at the Sun • Need to know the cone angle • Big problem since cone angle inversely proportional to velocity (roughly)

  19. Again: Which ellipse ? Cone ½ Angle 30 degrees 45 degrees 60 degrees factor 2 difference in velocity

  20. STEREO geometric localization Tool

  21. Estimation of Cone Angle from a side view (STEREO B)

  22. Estimation of Cone Angle from a side view (STEREO B)

  23. 3D Graphics modeling

  24. 3D Graphics modeling CME modeled as 3d ‘lemniscate’ (exaggerated size) STEREO A SOHO STEREO B

  25. 3D Graphics modeling CME modeled as 3d ‘lemniscate’ (exaggerated size) STEREO A SOHO STEREO B

  26. Overlay 3D model on coronagraph image

  27. ‘3 view’

  28. CME Analysis Tool (CAT)

  29. CME Analysis Tool (CAT)

  30. CME Analysis Tool (CAT)

  31. CME Analysis Tool (CAT)

  32. CME Analysis Tool (CAT)

  33. The result: CME parameters for Enlil

  34. CME Naming / Cataloging

  35. CME Analysis

  36. Solar Predictions Interface (SPI)

  37. Solar Predictions Interface (SPI) View catalogued CMEs: (available for CME analysis)

  38. Solar Predictions Interface (SPI) Add analyzed CME data to next model run

  39. Solar Predictions Interface (SPI) Browse model runs Select a model run for dissemination on the public webpage Inform SWFO forecast

  40. Ensemble of 25 WSA-Enlil model runs – varying the latitude / longitude of CME propagation direction. (CME velocity and cone angle kept constant) +10 +5 0 Latitude (relative) -5 -10 0 +10 -10 -5 +5 Longitude (relative) Original model run 24 Lat Lon ensembles

  41. “Direct Hit”

  42. “Glancing Blow” “Direct Hit”

  43. “Direct Hit” ensemble 12 hours (+/- 6) “Glancing Blow” ensemble 30 hours (+/- 15)

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