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A Framework for Monitoring Economic Development: Data for understanding structural change

Explore data from international sources on GDP, labor, trade, and infrastructure to understand and identify structural changes and differences over time. Analyze sectoral changes in Ethiopia, China, and Mexico. Access detailed statistics on transportation, electricity, information, water, and sanitation. Utilize the Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) to identify opportunities for growth.

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A Framework for Monitoring Economic Development: Data for understanding structural change

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  1. A Framework for Monitoring Economic Development:Data for understanding structural change Eric Swanson, Senior Adviser Development Data Group The World Bank International Forum on Monitoring National Development: Issues and Challenges 27-29 September 2011, Beijing, China

  2. Plan for the presentation • Data from international data sets – availability and gaps: • Gross Domestic Product • Valued added by industry • Labor force and employment • Productivity • Trade • Infrastructure • How do these data help to identify structural differences and changes over time? • Questions for discussion?

  3. Data availability • Two years ago we conducted an inventory of data available for classic structural analysis of economic development based on Chenery and Syrquin’s “Patterns of Development” (1975) and other subsequent studies • Results of the data inventory indicated that even in the most recent decade, annual data for all indicators are available for no more than 75% of the country-year periods.

  4. Data availability -- results • Macroeconomic indicators in WDI database • Two-digit SITC indicators from COMTRADE

  5. The “Beijing Sample” • For this presentation we looked at data available for the 25 low- and middle-income economies participating in this conference.

  6. GDP – Income accounts

  7. Changing economic structures

  8. GDP – Production accounts

  9. Sectoral change: Ethiopia Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources

  10. Sectoral change: China Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources

  11. Sectoral change: Mexico Source: WDI database; unpublished estimates from national sources

  12. Labor force statistics

  13. Labor statistics: data availability

  14. Sectoral distribution of employment

  15. Global trade statistics

  16. Trade in commodities

  17. Infrastructure statistics

  18. Inventory of infrastructure sources • Road transport • Principal international data source: International Road Federation‘s World Road Statistics • Alternative sources : National and/or regional road associations • Coverage (time, countries, road class, length) 1990 onward; 188 countries; total road network, paved road (% ) and passengers carried, and goods hauled. • Air transport • Principal international data source: International Civil Aviation Organization’s Civil Aviation Statistics • Coverage (time, countries, domestic and international traffic) 1970 onward; 148 economies; registered carrier departures, Passengers carried, and Air freight • Sea transport • Principal international data source: Containerisation International’s Containerisation International Yearbook • Coverage (time, countries, volume of shipments) 2000 onward; 60 economies; Port container traffic • Railways • Principal international data source: International Union of Railways’ Railisa database • Coverage (time, countries, length of track, volumes) 1980 onward, 154 countries, Rail lines, Passengers carried, and Goods hauled

  19. Infrastructure inventory, continued • Electricity production and use • Principal international data source: IEA Energy Statistics and Balances • Alternative sources : United Nation’s Statistics Division’s Energy Statistics Yearbook • Coverage (time, countries, production, distribution, access) 1960 onward; 135 countries; production, consumption, transmission and distribution losses % of output, and sources of electricity • Information and telecommunications • Principal international data source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database • Coverage (time, countries, bandwidth, internet access, mainline telephones, mobile phones) 1960 onward, 212 countries; fixed lines, mobile cellular subscriptions, International voice traffic, population covered by mobile cellular network, residential fixed-line tariff, mobile cellular prepaid tariff, fixed broadband Internet subscribers, and International Internet bandwidth etc. • Water • Principal international data source: Joint Monitoring Programme of t WHO, UNICEF, FAO and AQUASTAT • Coverage (time, countries, freshwater resources, consumption by industry/household access) 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008. 157-197 countries, Access to an improved water source % of population • Sanitation • Principal international data source: Joint Monitoring Programme of WHO and UNICEF • Coverage (time, countries, treatment levels, household access) 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008. 149-194 countries. Access to improved sanitation facilities % of population

  20. The Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework (GIFF) • The GIFF suggests looking at economies with GDP per capita 100 to 300 percent higher – a gap that could be bridged by rapid growth over 20 years. • Among comparator economies look for dynamic export industries in which the rising economy may be able to establish a comparative advantage • GIFF is not intended to be applied in a mechanistic manner – considerable judgment and highly disaggregated data are required.

  21. Growth identification 2009 Source: World Development Indicators database

  22. What trade data show us

  23. Additional data required • Capital and labor intensity of production processes • Raw material sources and prices (domestic and imported) • Domestic and foreign demand • Input-output structure • Characteristics of existing firms • All of these data at the finest subdivisions available, including sub-national units

  24. Questions for discussion • How do the demands of the new structural economics change the priorities and development plans for economic statistics? • What new tools and methodologies are needed to improve the supply and availability of economic statistics? • How can we carry forward the ideas from this conference? Through an expert group? Pilot country studies? Other mechanisms?

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