Business Logistics 420 Public Transportation Fall 2001

1. Business Logistics 420Public TransportationFall 2001 Lectures 15 Policy Issues II: Public Transportation and Energy Conservation

2. Lecture Objectives • Provide an overview of energy consumption trends and transportation’s significance in energy use and conservation • Describe options for reducing transportation sector’s consumption of energy • Evaluate public transit’s energy efficiency and potential contribution to energy conservation

3. The Big Picture • United States accounts for about 30 percent of the world’s energy consumption • The transportation sector in the US accounts for 28 percent of all energy consumption and about 62 percent of petroleum consumption

4. Energy Consumption by Mode

5. The Transportation Energy Problem • Energy consumption by the transportation sector has increased and is likely to continue to increase due to • increasing population • increased vehicle miles of travel per person • Energy supply, especially petroleum, is finite, and increasingly more costly to obtain

6. The Transportation Energy Problem (Continued) • Periodic supply/demand imbalances have caused shortages and/or price spikes • 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo • 1980-81 Unrest in the Middle East • 1991 Gulf War • 2000 OPEC Supply Controls • Dependence on foreign oil dictates national defense policy and international political strategies

7. The Transportation Energy Problem (Continued) • Energy consumption directly related to air quality issues • Domestic energy production has environmental consequences • drilling • pipelines (spills and construction disruptions) • ocean shipping hazards (Alaska, e.g., Exxon Valdez spill)

8. How to Achieve Goal of Reduced Energy Consumption by Transportation Sector • Reduce overall demand for travel by all modes • Shift travel to more energy efficient modes, e.g., transit, walking, bike, carpool/vanpool • Improve efficiency of modes • To save petroleum, shift to other fuels

9. Reduce Overall Travel • Increase travel costs • fuel price increase • taxes on fuel or other aspects of travel • Restrict auto travel, auto-free zones, limit days of travel • Promote non-travel options such as telecommuting

10. Shift to More Efficient Modes • Which modes are most efficient -- great debate? • How to encourage/require shifts • regulatory requirements -- negative • incentives -- positive

11. Increase Efficiency of Existing Modes • Particular focus on automobile • Choices • Market driven • Regulation of auto manufacturers

12. Conserve Petroleum by Shifting to other Fuels • Electric Vehicles • Natural Gas • More “obscure” liquid fuels • gasohol (ethanol from agricultural products) • peanut oil • shale oil • Again -- how? • Market forces • Regulations/taxes

13. Major US Policy Choices • Fuel efficient automobiles/light trucks • Fuel cost increase • Carpool/Vanpool • Transit

14. Requiring Fuel Efficient Motor Vehicles -- The Most Effective Strategy So Far • Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards (CAFE) • Implemented in 1978 • Now 27.5 mph for autos • About 20.2 for light truck/SUV exemption • Current Issues • Raising CAFE for autos • Raising light truck/SUV to same standard as auto

15. From NHTSA 1998 Annual Report on Automotive Fuel Economy Program http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/auto/cafenhtsa.html

16. From NHTSA 1998 Annual Report on Automotive Fuel Economy Program http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/auto/cafenhtsa.html

17. From NHTSA 1998 Annual Report on Automotive Fuel Economy Program http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/auto/cafenhtsa.html

18. Increasing Fuel Costs to Increase Cost of Driving • Politically unpopular • Not likely to work unless very large increase -- travel is gasoline price inelastic • Issues • impact on economy -- reduced auto production, reduced employment • reduced savings rate -- shift income to pay for fuel • equity concerns -- impact on low income drivers

19. Shift to More Efficient Modes • Question -- Which modes are more efficient? • How do you encourage/require the shift?

20. Does Transit Save Energy? • Any analysis of energy efficiency of transportation modes depends on many assumptions and estimates • Congressional Budget Office attempted an analysis of various transit modes compared to the private auto (Urban Transportation and Energy: The Potential Savings of Different Modes, 1977)

21. CBO Study • Some of the data is now dated, but the methodology remains valid • Purpose of the study was to guide Congress on policy decisions related to transit investment and energy conservation

22. Comprehensive Framework for Energy Use Analysis • Energy Intensiveness • Line Haul Energy • Modal Energy • Program Energy

23. Energy Intensiveness • Most basic, and typical measure of energy use • Includes • Propulsion energy per vehicle mile (mpg) • Average vehicle occupancy

24. Comparison of Modes Using Energy Intensiveness Figure • Automobile • 20 mpg • 1.5 passengers on average • Result -- 30 passenger miles per gallon • Bus • 4 mpg • 20 passengers on average • Result -- 80 passenger miles per gallon

25. Energy Intensiveness Issues • Actual utilization vs capacity • Bus Example • Full bus 60 psgrs x 4 mpg = 240 pmpg • Average bus 20 psgrs x 4 mpg = 80 pmpg • Auto Example • Full car 6 psgrs x 20 mpg = 120 pmpg • Average car 1.5 psgrs x 20 mpg = 30 pmpg

26. Line Haul Energy • Includes Energy Intensiveness plus • Station and maintenance energy consumption • Construction energy • Vehicle manufacturing energy • Goal is to include the non-vehicle operations energy consumption, but hard to do • Reduces the energy efficiency of rail transit

27. Modal Energy • Includes energy intensiveness and line haul energy plus • Mode used for access (e.g., auto to rail station) • Fraction of trip devoted to access • Circuity of mode -- straight line distance vs actual distance traveled

28. Example of Circuity – back haul to rail station

29. Program Energy • Includes energy intensiveness, line haul, modal energy plus • Source of new patronage • trips not previously taken • Resulting total program energy is what CBO says should be used to evaluate policies to encourage mode shifts

30. CBO Results • Vanpools are the most efficient mode • No empty back haul • High energy intensiveness (15 psgrs x 15 mpg = 225 pmpg) • Dial a bus is the least energy efficient • Circuity • Low energy intensiveness (3 psgrs x 3 mpg = 9 pmpg)

31. CBO Results (Continued) • New heavy rail systems efficient when measured in terms of energy intensiveness but not overall program energy • Reasons for low rating of heavy rail • Significant percentage of total trip still by auto • Circuity • Most new patrons taken from other energy efficient modes -- bus, carpool/vanpool

32. Study Questions • Does transit save energy? Present your answer in terms of the evaluation methodology proposed by the Congressional Budget Office. • What are the major policies considered by the US over the past 25 years as ways to reduce energy consumption in the transportation sector? Which ones have worked?

33. Study Questions (Continued) • According to the Congressional Budget Office study, new heavy rail transit systems save very little energy. Why? What mode does that study conclude is best as far as energy conservation? Why?