Unit 3: National Weather Service Hurricane Information

1. Unit 3: National Weather Service Hurricane Information

2. Outline • Information: The Goal of Communication • Information from the National Hurricane Center • Information from your Local National Weather Service Office

3. One Collective Goal To Effectively Describe Threats from Hurricane Hazards on a Personal or Familial Level, eliciting Actions that Save Lives and Protect Property

4. Meeting the Goal • National Hurricane Center: Describes the Big Picture of the Storm as a Unit. • Personalizing: Visuals… • Cone/skinny black line • Satellite loops • Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Categories • Probability graphics • The question: “Should I/we put our plan into place?”

5. Meeting the Goal • Weather Forecast Office: Describes the Storm as a Sum of Parts for Cities, Towns, Neighborhoods • Personalizing: Words and Pictures… • Color coded hazards • Potential impacts described in real world terms • Virtual scenarios for cities, towns, neighborhoods, individual structures (Coming soon) • Voices from staff who are also a part of the community • The question: “Might I/we die? Will our home or business survive?”

6. Meeting the Goal • The NWS Need to speak with one voice being emphasized…today! • …in context of ensuring the best response from all “publics”… today and tomorrow! • Collaboration among National Centers and Local offices stressed… today! • …And shared data platforms will complete the process… tomorrow!

7. Information from NHC • Tropical Weather Outlook • Wind Fields (i.e. TWC graphic) • Probabilistic Storm Surge (what’s new) • Wind Speed Probabilities (review) • Cumulative • Individual • Incremental • Cone and Track (what’s new) • Text Products (what’s new)

8. Graphical Tropical Outlook < 30% chance Tropical Storm Formation within 48h 30 to 50% chance Tropical Storm Formation within 48h > 50% chance Tropical Storm Formation within 48h

9. Tropical Weather Outlooks • Graphic and text issued 4 times daily, from June 1 through November 30: • 1 PM, 7 PM, 1 AM, and 7 AM CDT • Based on user feedback, primarily from EM and media customers • Reminder: Special Information continues in updated Tropical Weather Outlook, not in separate text product as in the past

10. Cyclone Wind Field Note: Colors represent highest possible winds at any point; all winds in color will not meet criteria

11. Probabilistic Storm Surge 90-100% Probability >10 foot surge, Landfall 70-80% Probability >10 foot surge, 24h prior to landfall • Probabilities Provided for Surge Heights of 2 to 25feet. • A relativelylowprobability of a highsurge height is actionable: • Example: Imagine a 20%Probability of a 20 foot surge. If the typical occurrence of this surge level is 2%, then this forecast is1000% greater than what is “typical”!

12. Probabilistic Storm Surge Peak Surge Height,Probability Exceeds 10%, Ike • Provides Quick Look at Range of Possible Surge Heights

13. Probabilistic Storm Surge For More Details: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutpsurge.shtml

14. Wind Speed Probabilities • Three Types of data: • Cumulative:Aggregates entire forecast period. • Best for event planning. “Do I need to Prepare?” • Individual:Forecasts for Individual 12 hour periods; best for deployment start/stop. “How much time do I have left to prepare?” • *Incremental: Similar to Individual since based on forecast period. Difference: Values can increase in value by accounting for possibility that event begins in an earlier 12 hour period and continues into the next period.“What are the chances for cyclone winds at time x, within a given forecast period?” • * Note: Incremental probabilities are not shown on website but used in local NWS office products

15. Wind Speed Probabilities Area of Concern Area of Concern Cumulative; 120 hour forecast, Hurricane Ike 7 AM September 11, 2008

16. Wind Speed Probabilities Alex, 7 PM June 28 2010 H-42: How would you act on these data?

17. Wind Speed Probabilities Text Table Cumulative and Individual Hurricane Ike, 4 AM CT September 11, 2008 Note: Even what appear to be small probabilities can be “large” in the greater scheme of preparedness. “37 percent” is akin to a two in five chance of sustained (1 min. average) hurricane force wind!

18. Wind Speed Probabilities

19. Wind Speed Probabilities For More Details: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprobs.shtml

20. Cone and Track

21. Cone and Track • Track is the most probable location of the center of the storm. • Impacts are often felt well away from the cone/track • Cone is the area swept out by a circle covering 2/3 of the most recent 5 year forecast error • This means that 1/3 of all cyclones will track beyond the area of the cone at each time iteration! • For the entire period, 60 to 70% of all storms track within the cone • Bottom Line: Never focus solely on the skinny black line!

22. Cone and Track Dennis, July 2005 8 to 10 foot (peak) storm surge 100 miles east of Track! Apalachicola National Forest, July 2005

23. Reduce Error Cone Today 1990 5 to 10 years Wilma (2005), redone

24. Reduced Error Cone: 2010 vs. 2008 2010 2008

25. NHC Text Products • “Old” favorites continue: • Public Advisory • Forecast Advisory • Forecast Discussion • Prob. Wind Speed • Valid Time Event Code Watch/Warning • Tropical Cyclone Outlook. Includes special disturbance information. • Tropical Cyclone Update

26. New Look Public Advisory • Organized into Sections. Keywords will Assist Humans and Computers to Parse Data • Summary Moves to Top of Product • Watch/Warning Listed in Bullet Form for easier reading and parsing • Much more at • http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/help/tcp.shtml

27. New Look Public Advisory ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010 400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010 ...ALEX HEADING TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO WITH 90 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 96.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... • *THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE • *THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO LA CRUZ • A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR... • * THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT OCONNOR • * THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO • FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

28. Extended Watch/Warning Times • Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch: • When conditions possible at coastline in 48 hours (up from 36 hours) • May be extended longer in unique circumstances (i.e. Katrina) • Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning: • When conditions expected at coastline in 36 hours (up from 24 hours) • May be extended longer in unique circumstances (i.e., Katrina)

29. Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) • Why? • Need to Remove Impacts from Surge, Inland Flooding, Tornadoes, and central pressure readings which vary greatly on more factors than the wind category: • Surge: • Hurricane Charley (2004) had small core of Category 4 Wind, but only a 4 to 7 foot Storm Surge • Hurricane Ike (2008) carried Category 2 wind across the Gulf, but the large girth built very high seas and ultimately a 17+ foot Storm Surge • Pressure: • Research and Data Acquisition Have shown that pressure does not always correlate to wind speed. Hurricane Felix (2007) was rated Category 5 (150 knot wind) with minimum central pressure of 929 mb, significantly higher than Rita’s 897 mb (155 knot wind) • Flooding: • Tropical Storm Alison (2001), causing an estimated $5 billion in damage, was no longer a named system when the majority of damage occurred! • Tornadoes: • The outer rain bands and remnants of Hurricane Ivan (2004) produced 117 tornadoes in the U.S., similar to the number produced by Hurricane Beulah (1967) in Texas.

30. Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale • Wind-Impact Based • Details Provided from Recent First-Hand experience and Wind Engineering Studies now included • Wind Speeds are Related to Structural and Natural Damage in Great Detail • No longer just “100 mph wind”. Now, “100 mph wind will produce specific damage. • Much more at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf

31. Cool Stuff Continues in 2011 http://www.emergency.info/nhc/ http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/ All available through hurricanes.gov http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/index_podcast.xml

32. Outline • Information: The Goal of Communication • Information from the National Hurricane Center • Information from your Local National Weather Service Office

33. Weather Forecast Office Hurricane Information and Decision Support NOAA’s National Weather Service

34. Section Outline • Decision Support Services • Web - Based Information • Text – Based Information

35. Decision Support Services (DSS) • The WFO is, and has always been, your localsource for National Weather Service Hurricane Information • We take information from the National Hurricane Center and tailor it for communities we serve • Our primary partners are many! • Emergency Managers • Media • Health and Human Services • Transportation Authorities • Public Utilities • Elected Officials • Environmental and Agricultural entities • And more!

36. DSS: National Center/WFO Connection NHC

37. Weather Hazards Communication: Wow! A Few Tools of the Trade… iPhone/ iPad KML GIS NOAA All-Hazards Radio RSS Feeds iNWS Mobile

38. Weather Hazards Communication: Now • Rapid Technological Advances Mean… • Information anytime, anywhere • Users can pull information they need • Weather decision support can be specialized • Better modeling, local forecaster experience increasing our skill • Ability used to provide confidence levels of forecast weather • Graphics/text combination tell the story best • NWS and partners are leveraging technology to provide array of information prior to/during critical weather

39. DSS: More than “Pushing Data” • E-mail Notifications • Teleconferences • Webinars/Web Briefings • Onsite Support • Online Spreadsheets • NWSChat • Weather-at-a-Glance Graphics • Breaking News Web Updates • Post Storm Web Reports

40. E-mail Notifications • Potential Impacts and Confidence: • Showers and thunderstorms will begin to affect Cameron/Willacy as early as Tuesday.  Confidence:  High. •  Gusts to 35 mph in squalls are possible Wednesday and Thursday.  Confidence: Medium. •  More widespread rain is likely Wednesday through Thursday.  Confidence:  High •  Total Rainfall amounts in the RGV may be 1 to 2 inches with isolated totals near 4 inches.  Confidence in rainfall forecast:  Low •  Open ocean seas should remain below 12 feet.  Confidence in this forecast:  Low. (Note:Wave height and long period swell highly dependent on speed, size, and strength.)  •  Rip Current Threat should increase to high by Tuesday, and could become High to Extreme Wednesday and Thursday.  Confidence:  High. •  Breaking waves on the beaches will begin to climb as early as late Tuesday; Water run-up and wave setup Wednesday and Thursday.  Whether the waves reach the dune line is indeterminate.  Confidence in wave/water increase:  High. •  Isolated tornadoes are possible late Tuesday through Wednesday.  Confidence: Medium. • Oil impact: • Based on current forecast:  Nil for the Kenedy-Cameron County Coast.  Confidence:  Very High Alex, Three Days Out

41. E-mail Notifications • Allow WFO Staff to tell a story of the most critical potential impacts (the human touch) • WFO Staff interpret complex uncertainty data and whittle down to confidence thresholds • “Bottom line” information is often provided, clarifying decisions

42. Teleconferences • Effective Means for Quick Local Weather and Impact Briefing followed by Q&A • Allows for statewide calls to focus on logistical needs • Often accompanied by graphics in the form of a web meeting

43. Web Briefings

44. Go To Meeting®

45. Web Briefing/Go To Meeting® • Combine graphics and voice to describe the situation • “A Picture is Worth a Thousand Words”: A handful of slides can reduce the length of a briefing • More and more WFO’s will be posting web briefings and updating frequently • Helpful to EM staff who cannot attend a scheduled Go To Meeting/teleconference but need to reference data at any time

46. Onsite Support City of Brownsville HUREX 2009 Meteorologist-In-Charge Gene Hafele, WFO Houston/Galveston, briefing during Ike WCM Dan Noah, WFO Tampa Bay (bending), briefing Lee County, FL, during Charley

47. Online Spreadsheet

48. NWSChat

49. Weather-At-A-Glance Graphics En Español English

50. Weather Stories Additional Text May Be Included: “Blog-casting”