PAP/RAC Workshop Sardinia May 19-21, 2008 Fadi M. Doumani METAP

1. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector in the Middle East & North Africa Region: A Review of Main Issues PAP/RAC Workshop Sardinia May 19-21, 2008 Fadi M. Doumani METAP

2. Content • What is Climate Change (CC)? • What is the MENA Water Sector State (WS)? • How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State? • What are the Suggested Responses?

3. What is Climate Change? • CC is any long-term significant change in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans that a given region experiences • CC is human-made: science established a causal effect between the acceleration of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and CC effects in the IPCC 4 • GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) emissions shot past a safe level of 350 ppm by the end of the 80s and stand at 385 ppm per volume in the Earth’s atmosphere

4. What is Climate Change? • Six scenarios with different assumptions were developed to simulate GHG projections and their effects on CC until 2100 Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

5. What is Climate Change? • Main GHG emission effects on CC are: -Average global surface temperature will likely rise between 0.6° to 4° Celsius by 2100 Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

6. What is Climate Change? -Increases in the amount of precipitation are very likely in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land and semi-arid regions (by as much as about 20% in the A1B scenario in 2100 -In semi-arid areas, droughts will increase and runoffs will decrease -The ice cap will shrink and sea level will rise by a likely range between 0.18 and 0.59 meter by 2100

7. What is the MENA Water Sector State? • 3 aspects of the water sector are covered: -Renewable Water (RW) Availability in 2004 -Water Use in 2004 -Water Services in 2004 • But first, a definition of RW availability: -Water security: ≥ 1,700 m3 pc pa of RW -Water stress: ≥ 1,000 and < 1,700 m3 pc pa of RW -Water scarcity: ≥ 500 and < 1,000 m3 pc pa of RW -Water absolute scarcity: < 500 m3 pc pa of RW

8. What is the MENA Water Sector State? RW Availability. MENA region: • Most water stressed region in the world (1,100 m3) • 3 water groups: arid, hyper-arid and transboundary RW PC PA RW PC PA Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

9. What is the MENA Water Sector State? RW Availability. MENA region is characterized by • Aridity, desertification and coastal density; and by Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

10. What is the MENA Water Sector State? • low precipitation, high evaporation, and increased droughts, flooding and weather extreme Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a); and Author.

11. What is the MENA Water Sector State? Water Use. MENA region is characterized by: • Highest RW withdrawal region (75%); and by Water Use Share Total Water Withdrawal to Total Renewable Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

12. What is the MENA Water Sector State? • An important share allocated to the agriculture sector (±85%) with low value-added GDP per km3 (US$ 701) and low yield • An increased reliance on desalination to augment water supply Sector Water Use Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002) compiled in World Bank (2007a).

13. What is the MENA Water Sector State? Water Services are characterized by: • Inadequate governance (accountability, planning, financing, organizational capacity, etc.) affecting both access (87%) and water-related diseases (22 death per 100,000 from diarrhea mainly in rural) • Poor utility performance (water losses between 30 and 60% and operating cost coverage ratio less than 1; and • Low agricultural water requirement ratio that measures the agricultural efficiency and ranges between 0.3 and 0.5.

14. How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State? Impact on 5 Categories but we will focus on water and health Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

15. How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State? • The CC effects in the MENA region by 2050 are (figures should be used with care): -Higher temperatures by +2.5 degree C -Lower precipitation by >-10.5% -Lower runoffs between -20 and -30% -Sea level rise by 0.39 meter. -Accelerating drought cycle especially in NAfrica -Burden of disease marginal increase (water-related, cardio-respiratory and vector-borne diseases, malnutrition and injuries)

16. How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State? • Demographic growth (+2% in 2000s) will put more pressure on RW with an urban population increasing by 93% between 1995-2050 • RW pc pa will decrease by more than half to less than 550 m3 putting the region in water absolute scarcity state • Water Use: Domestic share will exceed 20% putting additional stress on the agriculture sector • Water Services: all governance, access, efficiency and water-related disease indicators will deteriorate

17. How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State? Without CC With CC Source: FAO-AQUASTAT (2002); United Nations (2007); and Author

18. How Will CC Affect the MENA WS State? Runoff Reduction by 2100 Drought Severity by 2100 Source: IPCC 4 (2007).

19. What are the Suggested Responses? • The MENA region public and private human, social, capital, natural and cultural assets at stake from future CC effects • Three responses are suggested: -Knowledge response -Mitigation response -Adaptation response

20. What are the Suggested Responses? • Better knowledge response -Transparent awareness campaign (proactive media and universities) could help ensure an inclusive and participatory CC mitigation/ adaptation planning and implementation process -Mainstream CC in school and university curriculum -Adapt/set up knowledge-based CC infrastructure (GIS, meteorological indicators, hydrological cycle, etc.)

21. What are the Suggested Responses? • Better adaptation response -MENA region contributes between 3.5 and 5% to the global GHG emissions but the emissions growth has outpaced all the other regions (1995-2004) -Opportunity to improve energy efficiency (electricity and energy) by tapping carbon funding mechanism and switching to abundant renewable energies (solar and wind in some regions)

22. What are the Suggested Responses? • Better mitigation response requires climate-proof sector-wide water reforms by: -Balancing water demand (water allocated to its highest use value) and supply (e.g., drip irrigation, water reuse, desalination) and build-in system responsive to variations

23. What are the Suggested Responses? -Improving governance (e.g., integrated planning, organization, decision-making, management and resource mobilization), equity, justice and preservation of the commons -Increasing efficiency (agriculture, domestic) -Enhancing natural disaster and health service preparedness

24. What are the Suggested Responses? • Water sector reforms could already help contain, delay and mitigate CC effects (Morocco has embarked on a long term programmatic reform with the World Bank) • Looking at reducing the distortions of drivers could also help increase the effectiveness of water sector reforms (coherent growth strategy that encompasses population, poverty, urbanization, tourism and agriculture drivers) and increase the climate-proofing efforts

25. Thank You for Your Valuable Time

26. Introduction of the Carbon Funding of Waste Emission Presentation Global GHG emissions (in Giga tons or billion of tons) are illustrated by compound and sector over the 1970-2004 period. Source: IPCC 4 (2007).