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Trading in a growing world Northern Territory Cattleman’s Association Industry Conference, Darwin

Trading in a growing world Northern Territory Cattleman’s Association Industry Conference, Darwin. Dr Andrew Stoeckel Visiting Fellow, CAMA, Australian National University 28 March, 2014. The all-important consumer!. …. who is also a voter. The Golden Math. _. Profit. =. Revenue.

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Trading in a growing world Northern Territory Cattleman’s Association Industry Conference, Darwin

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  1. Trading in a growing worldNorthern Territory Cattleman’s AssociationIndustry Conference, Darwin Dr Andrew Stoeckel Visiting Fellow, CAMA, Australian National University 28 March, 2014

  2. The all-important consumer!

  3. …. who is also a voter

  4. The Golden Math _ Profit = Revenue Costs Sales volume Price X Fixed costs Variable costs Trade barriers Incomes Marketing Competitors Exchange rate

  5. Another 1 billion middle class consumers by 2030 Shares of Global middle-class consumption, 2000-2050 Others Other Asia EU USA India Japan China http://info.publicintelligence.net/GlobalTrends2030.pdf

  6. China’s Booming Middle Class Source: http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/3/china%20middle%20class%20kharas/03_china_middle_class_kharas.pdf

  7. Global food projections in White Paper

  8. The good news: enormous growth in beef demand http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf

  9. Met by import demand for beef, not feed grain http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf

  10. … and the less good news: China faces some enormous challenges Chinese funding costs Source: Yiping Huang http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/yiping-huang-presentation.pdf http://www.ft.com/m/html/expandable-picture.htm?d=true

  11. China real effective exchange rate: 40% appreciation over last 8 years 40%

  12. China’s Demographic Transition

  13. Japan’s massive debt burden http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1ccc6df2-a86f-11e3-a946-00144feab7de.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2wvACigtJ

  14. Eurozone banks in trouble http://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2014/sp-ag-160314.html

  15. Public debt as percent of GDP

  16. …. Nor do we have the world market to ourselves http://www.daff.gov.au/ABARES/outlook-2014/Documents/presentation-slides/karen-schneider-presentation.pdf

  17. Barriers to trade • Asia is where growth is, our part of world and where barriers high • Korean FTA to see barriers come down to achieve parity with the USA • Trade Minister Robb currently in Japan negotiating FTA • China FTA talks but our view on in-bound investment • TPP talks but no ‘fast track’ for President • All FTA’s are preferential and also because all meats are substitutable there is a lot of ‘switching’ of trade and net gains not as big as if multilateral free trade secured.

  18. Productivity slowdown is global http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6cb5aece-7dee-11e3-b409-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz2r04smn9t from http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/TED3.pdf

  19. The real competition is from resources sector http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2013/jun/pdf/bu-0613-1.pdf

  20. What can marketing do?

  21. Integrity of the supply chain is critical Wholesaler & retailer Input supplier Consumer Producer Processor Product flow Information and communication Have to ensure that marketers can consistently deliver on the attribute of the product they promote Need a mix of individual and generic promotion

  22. Wholesaler & retailer Input supplier Consumer Producer Processor Product flow Information and communication

  23. Key messages • Long term prospects for beef promising • Expect short term volatility as global monetary stimulus unwinds • Productivity problem is global and governments will finally have to tackle hard structural change decisions • Trade liberalisation part of that, eventually Japan included • Absolute integrity of supply chain critical so marketers can explore, promote and deliver the attributes that are valuable • Success is a matter of getting a host of small things right

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