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October 27, 2010

The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University. October 27, 2010. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions. % Change in GDP. Quarters After Trough.

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October 27, 2010

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  1. The 2nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University October 27, 2010

  2. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  3. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 % Forecast > > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Global Insight

  4. U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices Nov 2006 – Sep 2010 RECESSION > > > L.I. C.I.

  5. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices MFG NON-MFG

  6. Initial Unemployment Claims 000s (4-week moving average) 454

  7. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - US THOUSANDS Sep = + 321 Source: BLS Establishment Survey, NSA

  8. U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2007 – December 2009 Ranked by Size in 2010 Total - 8,363,000 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. U.S. Job Change by SectorDecember 2009 – September 2010 Ranked by Size in 2010 (000s) Total 613,000 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  10. U.S. Unemployment Rate % 9.6 % • GI Fcst • 9.7 • 9.6 • 9.1 • 8.5 • 7.9 • 7.3 Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted

  11. The Washington Area Economy

  12. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

  13. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 09 – Sep 10 (000s) Washington + 56,100 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Washington MSA Total 56,100 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. Job Change by SectorDec 2007 – Dec 2009Northern Virginia Total - 30,700 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  18. Job Change by SectorSep 2009 – Sep 2010Northern Virginia Total 15,000 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. Unemployment Rate % U.S. 9.5 6.2 5.1 MSA NVA Source: BLS (Not seasonally adjusted)

  20. 15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateAugust 2010 % US 9.5 6.2 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted

  21. Housing Market Trends

  22. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through September 2010 12-Month Moving Average

  23. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA % Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Sep = + 2.1% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  24. Total Active Listings Per SaleSeptember Each Year PW PG LDN DC MONT FFX ARL Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  25. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  26. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  27. Economic Forecast

  28. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  29. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

  30. GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 % Washington U.S. Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  31. Policy-cra.gmu.edu

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