HYMN

1. Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide:Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 HYMN September 2007

2. Contents Objectives Partners Project overview Biosphere-atmosphere interactions Ground-based observations Satellite observations Chemistry-transport modeling CH4, N2O and H2 Improved source estimations (inverse modeling)

3. HYMN Objectives Improve process models of land-biosphere-atmosphere exchange of the HYMN gases and provide global and regional estimates of their natural sources and sinks. Provision of multi-year global satellite data sets of CH4 and CO and long-term time series of CH4 and N2O at a range of observing stations. Provide advice on further optimization of monitoring networks for the HYMN gases (esp. FTIR). Quantify atmospheric loss of CH4 and H2 and the impact of changing anthropogenic and natural (climate-induced) emissions on regional OH trends and on current and future global CH4 and H2 levels. Quantify how the possible future change to a hydrogen economy will affect the H2 distribution and the distribution of CH4 and O3 through changes in emissions of H2 and pollutants (NOx, CO, VOCs). Evaluate simulations with a new coupled atmospheric chemistry-biosphere model for CH4, N2O and H2 by comparison with ground based and satellite observations on a global and regional scale. Provide new estimates of the sources and sinks of CH4 and H2 including their temporal and spatial variability.

4. Partners

5. HYMN Project overview

6. WP2: Biosphere-atmosphere interactions Objective: further develop and provide a climate-driven global biosphere/land model for HYMN gases Based on LPJ and including CH4 emissions from wetlands, permafrost (LPJ-WHy) CH4, CO, NOx, H2 emissions from fires (SPITFIRE) N2O & NOx fluxes from soils (microbes) H2 fluxes from N-fixation Interface to global atmospheric chemistry-transport models

7. LPJ: modeling biosphere-atmosphere interactions Comparison to Satellite Observations Sitch et al., 2003

8. LPJ-WHy model

9. WP3: Satellite observations Objectives consistent data set of SCIAMACHY CH4 and CO from 2003 onward + error estimates consistent data set of IMG/IASI CH4 + error estimates investigate combined SCIAMACHY-IASI CH4 retrieval Clerbaux et al., ACP, 2003

10. WP3: IMG CH4 retrieval April 1997 Forms basis for retrieval from IASI (launched October 2006)

11. WP3: IMG vertical information

12. WP3: Sciamachy CH4 new retrievals • Improved T- profile (ECMWF) • Updated spectroscopy

13. Frankenberg et al, JGR, 2006 SCIAMACHY CH4 (2003-2004) Frankenberg et al, JGR, 2006

14. Frankenberg et al, JGR, 2006 Cloud top height < 2.5km;shows CH4 long-range transport

15. Frankenberg et al, JGR, 2006 SCIAMACHY CH4 regional: Asia

16. WP4: Observations from ground-based networks Objectives Perform FTIR measurements at 7 stations (28-80 N) once a week (if sky is clear) during HYMN (2006-2009). 3-month measurement campaign at La Réunion Optimise, standardise retrieval and error estimates CH4, N2O Construct historical time series Validate satellite CH4 with FTIR

17. WP4: FTIR time series from Jungfraujoch

18. UFTIR data set for CH4 (total column) • reasonably good agreement with UiO 3D model simulations • Seasonal variation is obvious • Consistent data sets; possibly not optimal yet... • Trend of tropospheric and stratospheric column abundances wrt 2000? Significantly positive: ranges from (0.1  0.05 )%/yr to (0.6  0.1 )%/yr ; except for tropo- column at Izana: - 0.26(±0.09))%/yr

19. UFTIR data set for N2O(total column) • Trend: significantly positive, in agreement with the surface trend of +(0.25  0.05) %/yr reported in IPCC 2003 based on in-situ observations

20. WP5: Model integration and evaluation Objectives Evaluate current chemistry models against satellite and ground-based observations Same for new coupled biosphere-chemistry model Quantify the effect of changing natural and anthropogenic emissions (including climate-driven vegetation fluxes) on CH4, OH, O3 and H2 – on decadal time scales Quantify the effect of the transformation to a hydrogen economy

21. Tropospheric OH 1990-2001 Dalsoren and Isaksen, JGR, 2007 • Emission changes in the period 1990-2001 caused a global average increase in OH of 0.08 %/yr. • The global increase in OH is driven by changes in the Northern Hemisphere. • Deviations from the trend were found in years with much biomass burning.

22. WP6: Inverse modelling & data assimilation Objectives Derive error estimates for model and observational errors (satellite and surface-based) Determine surface fluxes of CH4 and H2 (1980-2000) by inverse modelling and data assimilation Estimate evolution of OH (1980-2000) Meirink et al., 2006 (Evergreen)

23. WP6: Inverse modelling & data assimilation Large differences between tropical wetland CH4 emissions  Need for improved models and inversions

24. WP6: Inverse modelling & data assimilation LMDZT-SACS: New simplified atmospheric chemistry system for inversions

25. WP6: Inverse modelling & data assimilation LMDZT-SACS: New simplified atmospheric chemistry system for inversions

26. Links with other EU projects ACCENT (Atmospheric Composition Change: the European NeTwork of excellence) Model evaluation, emissions EUROHYDROS (A European Network for Atmospheric Hydrogen observations and studies) Surface observations and modeling GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and Monitoring) Model evaluation Surface observations QUANTIFY: Ship & aviation emissions HyCARE (Hydrogen energy: ChAnces and Risks for the Environment) Hydrogen forum Past related projects: Evergreen (EnVisat for Environmental Regulation of GREENhouse gases) UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from a European ground-based FTIR network)

27. More information http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/hymn or contact Peter van Velthoven (velthove@knmi.nl)