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HYMN

HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048. Status of TM model Michiel van Weele HYMN meeting, Brussels, 22-23 May 2007. Global 3 x 2 (1x1 test runs); 60-25 (91-34) ECMWF layers CBM4 chemistry, incl. isoprenes

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HYMN

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  1. HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide:Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 Status of TM model Michiel van Weele HYMN meeting, Brussels, 22-23 May 2007

  2. Global 3 x 2 (1x1 test runs); 60-25 (91-34) ECMWF layers CBM4 chemistry, incl. isoprenes No stratospheric chemistry (nudging O3, HNO3 and CH4) Dry deposition (Ganzeveld) O3, NO, NO2, HNO3, PAN, NH3, CO, CH2O, RCHO, H2O2, CH3OOH, SO2 CH4 concentrations or CH4 emissions Missing H2 as chemical tracer: Using fixed H2 concentration of 550 ppb No soil sink Missing N2O sources and chemistry Extensively validated for CH4, CO, NOX, trop. O3 Operationally used for satellite data assimilations Recent participation in, e.g., IPCC/ACCENT RETRO QUANTIFY Royal Society tropospheric ozone 2050 study TM4 standard version

  3. TM4 runs 2003-2004 • best-guess CH4 emissions ~550 Tg • old ‘Hao’ biomass burning seasonal cycle • old Edgar 2 anthropogenic emissions 2003+2004 monthly output on HYMN ftp server; daily output also available

  4. TM4 runs 2003-2004: Methane

  5. TM4 runs 2003-2004: Ozone

  6. TM4 runs 2003-2004: CO

  7. TM4 runs 2003-2004: OH

  8. TM4 runs 2003-2004: NOx

  9. TM-version for climate couplings: HYMN / GEMS / EC-Earth Global 3x2; Layers: 44 out of 60; 49 transported tracers Stratospheric + Tropospheric chemistry 45 photochemical,144 gas phase and 33 heterogeneous reactions Two versions: Fixed lower tropospheric concentrations (CH4 / H2 / N2O) Explicit CH4/ H2 / N2O surface emissions and deposition CH4 exchanges wetlands/soils Soil sink H2 Natural emissions: Soils: N2O/CO/NOX Vegetation: CO / VOCs (isoprene + to be decided) Oceanic: CO / VOCs (to be decided) Dry deposition similar to TM4 (O3, NO, NO2, HNO3, PAN, CO, CH2O, RCHO, H2O2, CH3OOH, SO2) Anthropogenic emissions (next slide) Chemistry CH4 loss: OH, O(1D), Cl H2 formation: J(CH2O); loss: OH, O(1D), Cl N2O loss: J(N2O), O(1D) TM5-ST (under development)

  10. Present key issues / further work Slow performance, mainly caused by not properly working parallel photolysis Long-term drift in stratospheric ozone (chemistry/ ERA-40 dynamics / …) Incorporation of isoprene chemistry Addition of N2O and H2 emissions and H2 soil sink Coupling with HYMN emissions: Bristol LPJ and anthropogenic emissions Fall-back option: TM5-CBM4 including isoprenes and nudging <=> TM4 + zoom option Addition of CH4 and N2O and H2 emissions, sinks and chemistry Disadvantage: scenario runs without stratospheric responses TM5-ST (cont.)

  11. Past (1980-2000+2000-2005): Long runs natural: Bristol LPJ Trend attribution; anthropogenic: TNO/RETRO incl. wildfires Schultz? Interannual / seasonal Missing: N2O variabilities; How to extend after 2000? Evaluation with FTIR Alternatives: EDGAR-HYDE Present-day (2003-2005): Inverse modeling; natural: Bristol LPJ Evaluation with GFED v2 (Vd Werff) biomass burning SCIAMACHY / FTIR anthropogenic: IIASA global 1x1 (Royal society)? Alternatives: IPCC/ACCENT,POET, … Future (2030 or 2050?): Scenarios H2 economy anthropogenic IIASA global 1x1 (Royal society)? natural: Bristol LPJ (?) Alternatives: IPCC/ACCENT 2030, … Emission data sets for HYMNfor discussion!

  12. May – Aug 2007: Further TM5 model development Sep 2007: Decision on HYMN TM model version; - perform new spin-up, e.g., 10-20 year constant 2003? Oct – Dec 2007: 1st set of sensitivity runs 2003-2005 time period - focus on OH and CO, NOX, VOC anthropogenic emissions for CH4? - can use new LPJ CH4 high-lat emissions? Jan – Feb 2008: Evaluation of runs - can use new SCIA and FTIR 2003-2005? Mar-Apr 2008: Coupling with full set of LPJ routines May-Jun 2008: 1st long run 1980-2005 Autumn 2008: 2nd set of sensitivity runs for natural emissions using LPJ routines 2-3? more long runs for trend attribution 2009: Scenario runs Time schedule (preliminary!)

  13. 2003-2005: 2004 runs? Latitudinal changes in anthropogenic emissions (NOx!): present-day anthropogenic emissions 1990 anthropogenic emissions Distribution of natural CH4 emissions Best-guess distribution Enhanced tropical CH4 source + reduced northern CH4 source Role of H2 for oxidising capacity / stratosphere Best guess emissions / soil sinks Doubling anthropogenic H2 emissions … Long runs? Base run, full chemistry, varying natural, anthropogenic and chemical sinks Constant natural CH4 emissions Constant CH4 emissions (assume decline natural = anthropogenic increase) Sensitivity runs: some ideas

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