Modeling Overview IWMM technical team July 28, 2011

1. Modeling Overview IWMM technical team July 28, 2011

2. SHC Process at Several Linked Scales

3. 5-10 year process Regional (administrative) scale: Linking prioritization and management Annual process

4. Regional / Flyway Objectives Model Regional / Flyway Uncertainty Regional Actions Local Mgmt Objectives Model Uncertainty Local Mgmt Local Actions Predict Observe

5. Flyway to Region • How is the flyway model used to inform regional guidance to local scale? • Flyway Model analysis provides prioritization: • Relative Contribution of locale to flyway “fitness” for each guild • Answers: How important is habitat quality at a specific location for the entire migratory path?

6. Region to Local • How does Region use flyway model output to guide local management decisions? • Regional Allocation routine answers: • What guild(s) should refuge be managing for given the landscape and location in the migratory flyway?

7. Local Scale • How does local scale incorporate regional output to make efficient decisions? • Local SDM routine determines: • Optimal management action chosen from a discrete menu to maximize objective function given expected habitat response to each action

8. IWMM Process Flowchart GIS Analysis Flyway Model Monitoring Data Local Scale Model Regional Allocation Model

9. Chronic Disturbance Forage Roosting Node Quality GIS Analysis • Create three layers at finest res (e.g. 30 meter) • Roosting habitat layer • Forage quality layer • Disturbance layer • Layers are integrated to create a summary at node scale (e.g. 20 mile)

10. Integrate GIS layers Atlantic Flyway – 30m Atlantic Flyway - Node

11. Flyway Model • Inputs • GIS maps of available kcals, disturbance, daily gain • Bird energetic parameters (flight cost, flight speed,…) • Wintering and breeding sites to determine where birds “start” and “end”

12. Trajectory of Flock

13. Regional Model • Prioritization • Which guilds should each area (e.g. refuge) manage for? • By guild, what locations are most important? • What changes can be expected? • Protection • Acquisition • Habitat loss?

14. Linking Flyway to Regional Allocation Determining management contribution • Virtually improve habitat quality (e.g. add kilocalories) at each site • Re-run flyway model • Compare overall flyway fitness before and after management • Identify sites with biggest gains • Repeat with other guilds Refuge Nodes Management Effort

15. Determining management contribution • Virtually improve habitat quality (e.g. add kilocalories) at each site • Re-run flyway model • Compare overall flyway fitness before and after management • Identify sites with biggest gains • Repeat with other guilds

16. Regional Allocation Model • This information is passed to local scale model • G1 means guild 1 (e.g. dabblers)

17. Objectives for Alligator River and Mattamuskeet NWR complexes • Flyway and Regional models provide refuge specific guidance on objectives that take into flyway dynamics • These objectives inform local decisions

18. Local Structured Decision Making • More straightforward and is similar to many other local SDMs out there • Time scale: annual • State-and-transition model based on veg monitoring metrics • Other data correlated? • Objectives are received from region • what guilds are important

19. State Definitions

20. Local Scale Results

21. Local habitat monitoring

22. Linking Flyway and Region to local habitat monitoring

23. Next Steps • Continue work to link models to monitoring data • Models are likely to be tweaked as protocols change • Sensitivity analysis • Include additional guilds (shorebirds) • Work with decision-makers at: • Regional Scale (region, JVs, states) • Local Scale (refuge managers, etc)