EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture – an Irish example

1. EU-wide projections of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture – an Irish example Jasmina Behan Kevin Hanrahan

2. Outline • Introduction • AG-MEMOD: A European model in development • FAPRI-Ireland: Methodology that will be applied at EU and other member state levels • FAPRI-Ireland: Analysis to date for Ireland of GHG emmissions from agriculture

3. AG-MEMOD Partnership:Agri-food projections for EU member states • FP-5 collaborative project • Building economic models of MS agricultural sectors • MS Models combined to form model of EU agricultural sector • Dynamic partial equilibrium econometric models • 27 commodities, 14 + 10 countries • Baseline and Scenario projections of agricultural activity at MS and EU levels to a 10 year horizon

4. AG-MEMOD Partnership Agri-food projections for EU member states

5. AG-MEMOD Partnership Agri-food projections for EU member states • MS models capture inherent heterogeneity • Common approach ensures consistent models • Models at a member state level add-up to EU total • Activity projections available at MS and EU levels • Such projections can be used to project agriculture’s GHG contribution • Under Baseline of no further policy change • Under Scenario of some policy change, e.g. the EC MTR

6. FAPRI-Ireland Partnership • Consortium founded in 1997 • Teagasc (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority) • Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) (Missouri, USA) • National Universities of Ireland • Partner project in Northern Ireland

7. Projections of agricultural activities Implications for GHG and ammonia emissions Model of agricultural economy Methodology

8. Methodology • Multi-product modelling system • Supply and demand interrelationships • Partial equilibrium model • Econometric • Dynamic model

9. Commodity model inter linkages Sheep Output Values Beef Output Values Milk Output Values Pig Output Values Dairy Cereals Poultry Output Values Dairy Meal Price Cereal Prices, Production,Value & Hectares Dairy Cow Numbers Dairy Cow Numbers Poultry Prices Poultry Numbers Beef Inputs Cattle Feed Price Poultry Meal Prices Cattle Numbers Dairy Cow Numbers Beef Cow Numbers Pig Numbers Poultry Pig Meal Price Sheep Pigs Cattle Feed Price

10. Dairy model Liquid Consumption Milk Fed to Livestock Liquid Milk Liquid Milk Price On Farm Butter Domestic Sales Human Use SMP Manufacturing Intervention Milk Casein Manufacturing Exports Cream Milk Price Milk Delivered Cheese Domestic Sales Milk Output WMP Milk Output per Cow No. Dairy Cows Choc . Crumb Total Milk Production Misc . Prods.

11. Methodology • Historical data collected • Equations specified (Y =  + 1X1 + 2X2) • Equations estimated • Models assembled in spreadsheets • System solved • Projections generated • National expert review

12. Activity data projections • Macroeconomic conditions • Policy conditions • Market conditions • Events in other agriculture sectors

13. Projections • 10 year horizon • Baseline • Current policy remains in place • Current international agreements in place • No new policy • Scenario • Alternative policy • Method of differences

14. Ireland: results to date Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture • Baseline projections 2002 • Extensification scenario • Decoupling scenario

15. Ireland: results to date Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture Mt CO2 equivalents

16. Conclusions • Models developed to analyse agricultural policy can also project GHG emmission levels under Baseline and policy change scenarios • Activity projections based on economic models enable conversion to GHG emissions projections based on best scientific information available • Provide information with which to evaluate the impact of agricultural policy changes on GHG emmissions into the future

17. FAPRI-Ireland PartnershipAG-MEMOD Partnership Web addresses http://www.tnet.teagasc.ie/fapri/ http://www.tnet.teagasc.ie/agmemod/