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Phil Edholm June 2007

A VIEW TO THE FUTURE Hyperconnectivity and Convergence 2.0 Transformations in networking, communications, and applications….and work, play, business, and society. Phil Edholm June 2007. Hyperconnectivity.

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Phil Edholm June 2007

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  1. A VIEW TO THE FUTUREHyperconnectivityandConvergence 2.0Transformations in networking, communications, and applications….and work, play, business, and society Phil EdholmJune 2007

  2. Hyperconnectivity Anything that can be connected and would benefit from being connected will be connected

  3. Hyperconnectivity is Realand Happening Now Machine to Machine Person to Person Person to Machine • By 2010, worldwide: • 4-fold growth in Internet Commerce to 100B transactions • 1-2 billion A-GPS-enabled handsets • 98% of all CPUs today are embedded (by 2010 – 14 billion connected, embedded devices) • 70%+ of all 2007cars in U.S. have iPOD connectivity • Europe – mobile phones now outnumber people (103% penetration) • Global mobile IM grew 33% 2H06 • 100 million iPODs sold (market to double 2005 – 2010) • Sensor pocket in Nike shoes • iPhone available in June; hyper-connectivity at applications level • One Laptop Per Child

  4. Addressing the Challenge and Opportunity of Hyperconnectivity Hyperconnectivity Pillars of Hyperconnectivity Communications- Enabled Applications “True” Broadband

  5. Web n.0 – Critical Mass Critical Mass Zone Web presence MASH SITES Virtual environments ON-LINEGAMES Personal sites & blogs Dot coms Portals Customer-based value Socialising/dating SEMANTIC WEB 2000 2005 2010 2015

  6. Application Traffic Changes Moore’sLaw Metcalfe2 Per User Bandwidth Needs 1 Gb 1 Mb  Video  MP3   Graphics Text 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

  7. 10 GbE 1 GbE Billion 100 Mb/sEthernet 802 .11n 10 Mb/sEthernet 802 .11a/g 2.94 Mb/sEthernet WIRELINE 802.11b MIMO Million NOMADIC/WIRELESS UMTS 9600>b/s modem 110-b/s Hayesmodem MOBILE WIRELESS Ricochetradio modem 56 Kb/s modem Thousand 56 Kb/s modem Wide-area paging 28.8 Kb/s modem First alphanumeric pager 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 Edholm’s Law of Bandwidth Economic Bandwidth (Exponential Scale) Bits per second Time Bandwidth is increasing in all areas in a relatively proportional exponential growth

  8. 10 GbE TBD 1 GbE Billion 100 Mb/sEthernet Visualization 802 .11n 10 Mb/sEthernet 802 .11a/g 2.94 Mb/sEthernet WIRELINE Streaming 802.11b MIMO Messaging Web Pages Million NOMADIC WIRELESS UMTS 9600>b/s modem 110-b/s Hayesmodem MOBILE WIRELESS Ricochetradio modem Voice 56 Kb/s modem Thousand 56 Kb/s modem Wide-area paging 28.8 Kb/s modem First alphanumeric pager 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 Edholm’s Law of Bandwidth Economic Bandwidth (Exponential Scale) Bits per second Time Applications have relatively fixed requirements based on human I/O and devices

  9. 10 GbE TBD 1 GbE Billion 100 Mb/sEthernet Visualization 802 .11n 10 Mb/sEthernet 802 .11a/g 2.94 Mb/sEthernet WIRELINE Streaming 802.11b MIMO Messaging Web Pages Million NOMADIC WIRELESS UMTS 9600>b/s modem 110-b/s Hayesmodem MOBILE WIRELESS Ricochetradio modem Voice 56 Kb/s modem Thousand 56 Kb/s modem Wide-area paging 28.8 Kb/s modem First alphanumeric pager 1976 1984 1992 2000 2008 Edholm’s Law of Bandwidth Economic Bandwidth (Exponential Scale) Bits per second Time As applications move from Wireline to Nomadic to Mobile, their utility and value increase along with deployment volume

  10. Self-actualisation Esteem Social Safety / security Physiological Societal Impact HUMAN NATURE Technology progress All technology barriers are being eroded rapidly Socio-political instability -continuous social change Technology helps people to do more, interact more, have more fun, be more, and feel better about themselves

  11. Geographic world Cyberspace Human world Living with Virtuality

  12. Opportunity Increased productivity Better communications experience A more connected world (societal good) Challenge Scale is unprecedented Today’s networks not designed for Hyperconnectivity New technology required to transform much of IT and Telecom Hyperconnectivity: Opportunity & Challenge Companies that embrace innovation and scale will capture the opportunity of Hyperconnectivity

  13. Leapfrogging to Next Generation Industry Status Quo Nortel’s Strategic Imperatives Global Market 2G/3G Good for voice Adequate for data Bad for video 4G (True Broadband) 75% CAGR (07-09) MPLS Carrier Ethernet/PBT (Scalable, Simple,Inexpensive) Fine when used in moderation 26% CAGR (07-09) Legacy VoIP Unified Communications (Enabling, Transparent) 37% CAGR (07-09) One dimensional 13

  14. Enterprise Convergence 2.0 Delivering Unified Communications Business Application Convergence • Growth • Business Velocity • Strategic Advantage Communications Convergence • Collaboration • User Velocity • Productivity Network Convergence • Virtualization • Reach • Cost Infrastructure

  15. Nortel Synergistic Strategy Services • Synergy matters because today’s challenges are multi-dimensional • Multimodal phones • Fixed-mobile convergence • Real-time communications handoff • True Presence • Extension of Enterprise application to mobile devices • Carrier-grade enterprise mobility Wired Applications Enterprise Carrier Infrastructure Wireless “Business Made Simple”

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