Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir

1. Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir Zachary Jones, Corey Singletary, BartoszSzkatula, FarhaTahir

2. Kashmir Conflict Key events 1947 Accession to India Wars in 1947, 1965, 1971 1972 Simla Agreement 1999 Kargil Conflict 2001 Srinigar Conflict

3. Overview • Evaluate current development efforts and their predicted effects on secessionism • Key economic sectors • Our prediction: current development efforts will reduce secessionist sentiment • U.S. Government can help through diplomatic, financial, and technical assistance

4. Violence in Jammu and Kashmir • Source: Indiastat

5. Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir • Examples of secessionist groups • Harakatul-Jihad-I-Islami, Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front, Kashmir Freedom Movement, Lashkar-e-Taiba • Primary Objectives • Creation of independent state • Accession to Pakistan • Platform • Identity politics: ethno-nationalism • Denial of rights • Unfulfilled potential (social, political, economic) • Main effect on most residents: economic

6. Economic Development as Tool to Reduce Secessionism • Secessionism • Popular cost-benefit analysis of union vs. independence • Often viewed and addressed as social or political • Economic approach underutilized

7. Analytical Framework: Theorized Effects on Secessionism Source: Bookman (1991, 1993) with modifications

8. Key Economic Sectors • Agriculture • 80% of population’s livelihood • 40% of employment • Existing land, labor, and capital • Tourism • 30% of employment • Popularity of existing religious sites • Infrastructure • Limiting factor for above sectors • Untapped potential

9. Agriculture • Current development efforts • Technology • Information • Market access • Insurance • Effects on secessionism • Higher capital inflow  decrease • Greater trade dependency  decrease • Higher absolute level of development  increase

10. Tourism • Current development efforts • Heritage conservation • Accommodations • Accessibility • Marketing • Effects on secessionism • Higher capital inflow  decrease • Higher absolute level of development  increase

11. Infrastructure • Current development efforts • Rail • Roads • Power • Effects on secessionism • Higher capital inflow  decrease • Uncertainties • Physical capital • Relative level of development • Importance of coordination

12. Summary Predictions

13. Additional Considerations • Popular perception of effects • Reliance on national planning, funding, and trade • Explicit intent of efforts to reduce secessionism • Coordination of efforts • Between sectors • Between agencies • Political, military, economic

14. Opportunity Analysis • Leverage American reputation in Kashmir • U.S. seen as “honest broker” • Help legitimize India • Financial support to India • Direct through national government • Technical assistance

15. Thank you! Questions? The La Follette School of Public AffairsUniversity of Wisconsin Madison1225 Observatory DriveMadison, WI 53706 (608) 262-3581 info@lafollette.wisc.edu

16. Economic Development as a Tool to Reduce Secessionism in Jammu and Kashmir Zachary Jones, Corey Singletary, BartoszSzkatula, FarhaTahir May 6, 2010 Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin Madison1225 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706 • (608) 262-3581 • info@lafollette.wisc.edu