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Streamflow Forecasting

Streamflow Forecasting. Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts. Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting. Short–Term Forecasting Predict flows throughout basin on a weekly time step Source of Information: Antecedent basin conditions and weather forecast Long-Term Forecasting

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Streamflow Forecasting

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  1. Streamflow Forecasting Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts

  2. Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting • Short–Term Forecasting • Predict flows throughout basin on a weekly time step • Source of Information: Antecedent basin conditions and weather forecast • Long-Term Forecasting • Predict seasonal flow regimes 3-6 months ahead of time • Source of Information: Climate teleconnections • Used to determine which years are strong candidates to meet inter-annual eco-targets

  3. Change in timing of peak flows in NE Rivers

  4. Long-Term Forecasting Methodology • Characterize the influence of basin characteristics (e.g., snow) and climate influences (e.g., NAO) on CT River streamflow • Develop probabilistic forecasts of streamflow at long lead times (3 – 6 months) • Use the “tilt of the odds” to assess conditions for achieving multiple basin objectives

  5. Previous studies have found influence of North Atlantic Oscillation

  6. Teleconnections to Westfield River

  7. Example: Long-Term Forecasting Application Predict Shape of Tradeoff Climate in Previous Season Better opportunities for meeting eco-targets Less opportunity for meeting eco-targets

  8. Short-Term Forecasting Use Weekly Streamflow Forecasts Simulation Model Optimization Model Short-Term System Performance Under Standard Operations Operator Judgment Short-Term System Performance Under Optimal Operations Plan for weekly operations

  9. Existing River Forecasts

  10. Short-Term Forecasting Methodology METEOROLOGICAL FORECASTS STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AT SYE INDEX SITES HYDROLOGY MODELS OF SYE INDEX SITES SYE ESTIMATION METHOD STREAMFLOW FORECASTS AT ANY LOCATION IN THE BASIN!

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