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Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting

Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting. MBWMD’s Mission. Hydropower. Navigation. Water Quality Control. Flood Control. Recreation. Water Supply. Irrigation. Fish and Wildlife. MBWMD – Daily River Forecast. FUI – Forecasted Ungaged Inflows Navigation Season (April – November)

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Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting

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  1. Real-Time Streamflow Forecasting

  2. MBWMD’s Mission Hydropower Navigation Water Quality Control Flood Control Recreation Water Supply Irrigation Fish and Wildlife

  3. MBWMD – Daily River Forecast • FUI – Forecasted Ungaged Inflows • Navigation Season (April – November) • Non-Navigation Season (December – March) • Bi-Modal Spring Rises (March and May) • Forecast Run Every Morning • Posted to MBWMD Website (by 10:00)

  4. FUI Forecast Results MBWMD External Website

  5. Daily River Forecast Navigation Season • Season Length • Minimum vs. Full Service • Flow Targets • Meeting All Authorized Purposes

  6. Daily River Forecast non-Navigation Season • Winter Flows / Non-Nav Flows • Monitoring Ice Conditions • Meeting All Authorized Purposes

  7. Daily River ForecastSpring Pulses • March Pulse • May Pulse • Flow Limits • Precipitation Grids – OBS and QPF • HMS and FUI

  8. May 2009 Spring Pulse Missouri River at Kansas City Spring Pulse Initiated on Monday, May 18 Gavins Point Dam Arrival of pulse at Kansas City Kansas City 71,000 cfs Flow limit = 71 kcfs COE Forecast with QPF NWS Forecast Flood Stage – 32 feet Approximate Flow –249,000 cfs

  9. Other Forecasts - MBWMD • Weekly Reservoir Forecast • Monthly Forecasts • Inflow / Runoff • Reservoir • Ad-Hoc • Plains Snowmelt • HMS to FUI

  10. Weekly Reservoir Forecast

  11. Monthly Inflow / Runoff Forecast

  12. Monthly Reservoir Forecast

  13. USACE Field Measurements, 12-14 Jan 2010 1.2 1.5 2.9 2.3 2.6 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.7 1.5 1.9 1.4 Monitoring of Existing Plains Snow 3.2 3.1 3.3 2.0 4.7 4.1 4.0 January 13, 2010 – Snow Water Equivalency

  14. HMS Model with Snowmelt Option

  15. HMS Modeling within CWMS – Corps Water Management System

  16. New Modeling Efforts in MBWMD • Snowmelt Modeling with HMS • Updating Monthly Inflow Forecasting • (Continue) Integrating HMS into FUI • Graphing FUI Results • Upgrade Legacy DOS-Based Programs

  17. Data Needs for Forecasting partner agency reservoir data river data storm warnings and river forecasts Missouri River ice observations reservoir data precipitation data navigation data Inflow and precipitation forecasts snow data

  18. Specific Data Needs • National Weather Service • Flagging of Ground-Truthed Observed Gridded Precipitation • Alternate Method of Receiving Products • Other Agencies • DCP Stations – Maximizing Limited Funds

  19. Kevin Grode kevin.r.grode@usace.army.mil 402.996.3875 Kevin Stamm kevin.d.stamm@usace.army.mil 402.996.3874

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