V Ramanathan THE UCOP RESEARCH LUNCH SERIES June 10, 12 -1 pm

1. From CFC’s to Cook Stoves: How to Stop Global Warming V Ramanathan THE UCOP RESEARCH LUNCH SERIES June 10, 12 -1 pm

2. Sources of greenhouse Gases and Aerosols in Brown Clouds. Ramanathan 2007

3. Global Atmosphere Global Atmosphere Source: Washington, NCAR, 2005 Ramanathan 2007

4. The Greenhouse Blanket 3 Ramanathan, Barkstrom and Harrison, Phys Today, 1989

5. 1980

6. Global Temperature Departures from 1961-1990 Mean

9. Forcing at 2005 CO2 MASK Net forcing BC Heat Trapped by CO2, Non-CO2 gases, Black Carbon and Masking by Sulfates-Nitrates-Organic Aerosols

10. Even with 50% reductions by 2050, CO2 will Increase to 440 PPM; Commit another 1 C warming .. Total additional investment needs in technology and deployment between now and 2050 would amount to USD 45 trillion, or 1.1% of average annual global GDP over the period”, IEA, 2008

11. The Unmasking has begun in full force: Data: Smith, PNNL

12. 1975 Abstract. The infrared bands of chlorofluorocarbons and chlorocarbons enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. This enhancement may lead to an appreciable increase in the global surface temperature if the atmospheric concentrations of these compounds reach values of the order of 2 parts per billion. One molecule of CFC has the same greenhouse effect as the addition of more than 10000 molecules of Carbon Dioxide to the Atmosphere

13. Black Carbon - carbon-containing particulate matter (PM) - absorbs light - results from inefficient and incomplete combustion - emitted together with CO2, CO, organic particulate matter, SO2 some 60% of the total BC emissions is amenable to control

14. Avenues for limiting global warming to 20C • Reduce the rate of thickening of the blanket: CO2 levels to peak below 440ppm…(Grandchildren will benefit) • Offset the unmasking with reductions in warming air-pollutants: Black Carbon and Ozone….. (We will benefit) • III: Thin the Blanket: (Children will Benefit) • a. Methane (10 yrs) and HFCs (1 to 10 years)….. b. Develop Scalable technologies to extract BC, Methane and CO2 from the air

15. The Copenhagen Accord for Limiting Global Warming: Criteria, Constraints and Available Avenues Ramanathan and Xu, Submitted to PNAS, 2010

16. 3 Billion can not afford fossil fuel Project Surya on the Web: www.projectsurya.org

17. Smoke and BC have Major Impacts on Health; Water Security and Food Security • Greatest advantage for Policy Actions • Short Lived in the air ( about a week or less) • Immediate response to mitigation laws • Response felt locally by improved air quality • Will reduce fatalities due to indoor and outdoor air pollution

18. NASA-MODIS November 14 2006 December 21 2001 Ramanathan 2007

19. Spying on Brown Clouds with Drones Nature 2007

20. CALIPSO Aerosol Depth: Ramanathan et al, Nature, 2007

21. Ramanathan • Stockholm U, May 19 The working group consists of glaciologists, climate scientists, meteorologists, hydrologists, physicists, chemists, mountaineers, and lawyers organized by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences at the Vatican, to contemplate the observed retreat of the mountain glaciers, its causes and consequences. This report resulted from a workshop in April 2011 at the Vatican. Ajai, L. Bengtsson, D. Breashears, P.J. Crutzen, S. Fuzzi, W. Haeberli, W.W. Immerzeel, G. Kaser, C. Kennel, A. Kulkarni, R. Pachauri, T. H. Painter, J. Rabassa, V. Ramanathan, A. Robock, C. Rubbia, L. Russell, M. Sánchez Sorondo, H.J. Schellnhuber, S. Sorooshian, T. F. Stocker, L.G. Thompson, O.B. Toon, D. Zaelke

22. Glacier Retreat in the Himalaya ANIL V. KULKARNI DISTINGUISHED VISITING SCIENTIST DIVECHA CENTRE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE INDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE BANGALORE 560012 INDIA

23. Pindari (1966-2007: GSI) Samudra Tapu (1993-2000: SAC) Hamta (1961-2005: GSI) Dokriani Bamak (2004-2007: WIHG) Gangotri (1976-1996: GSI) Sara Umaga (1961-2005: GSI) Parbati (1990-06: SAC) RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN INDIAN HIMALAYA

24. Is the Monsoon Slowing Down? Dash et al, JGR, 2009 Guatam et al. (2009) Web photo

25. Simulated Changes due to Smokeless Cooking Ramanathan and Carmichael, 2008 Column Black Carbon 2000 to 2005, as is 2000-2005 Without BC from Cooking

28. Major findings from the Pilot Phase of Project Surya 1. Black carbon emissions from biomass and fossil fuels in rural India Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 10845–10874, 2011 2. A Cellphone Based System for Large Scale Monitoring of Black Carbon Under Review in Atmospheric Environment 3. Real-time assessment of Black Carbon pollution in Indian households due to traditional and improved biomass cookstoves Submitted to Environmental Science and Technology National Science Foundation Qualcomm

29. Cell-Phone Based Soot monitoring System Nithya Ramanathan et al, 2011 UCLA Group

31. Figure 2: (upper panels) BC emissions of different cookstoves in breathing and plume zones (left) grouped by stove class, and (right) displayed individually. (lower panels) Fuel use and ratio of mean BC concentration (in plume zone) during cooking to fuel use for different stoves (left) grouped by stove class and (right) displayed individually. In each box-plot, the dark line represents the median value, with the colored box showing the interquartile (25th-75th percentile) range (IQR). The whiskers extend to 1.5xIQR, with outliers denoted by circles. Mean values for each set of measurements are plotted as red triangles. A red star under the box means that the mean value for that stove is statistically different than the mean value for the traditional mud stove (at the 95% confidence level, p<0.05). Data shown are for hardwood fuel tests only.

32. Technology: Documenting the Mitigation Phase 1: 5000 to 10000 households

33. Surya: A Sustainable Business Model? , ABCs

34. Bottom to Top of the Pyramid The four billion people who live on less than $2 per day constitute the bottom of the economic and energy pyramid. CAN WE STEERTHEM INTO A SUSTAINABLE NON-FOSSIL FUEL PATHWAY and enable Them To climb the energy pyramid?