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Future Currents: Where the Global Energy Sector Will Flow

Future Currents: Where the Global Energy Sector Will Flow. Robert Rapier. The Wealth Summit May 2014. Outline. Biography Philosophy on money and energy investing 2013/Q1 2014 in review Is natural gas still cheap? Shale oil continues to boom A word on coal, nuclear, and renewables

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Future Currents: Where the Global Energy Sector Will Flow

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  1. Future Currents: Where the Global Energy Sector Will Flow Robert Rapier The Wealth Summit May 2014

  2. Outline • Biography • Philosophy on money and energy investing • 2013/Q1 2014 in review • Is natural gas still cheap? • Shale oil continues to boom • A word on coal, nuclear, and renewables • A peek at my portfolio

  3. Robert Rapier Bio • MS in chemical engineering from Texas A&M • > 20 years in the energy business • Roles in oil and natural gas production, refining, petrochemicals, renewable energy • Five patents granted • Worked in Germany, Scotland, and the Netherlands • Based in Hawaii, but on assignment in Arizona • Investor for >30 years

  4. The Hats I Wear 1. Investing Daily • Publications • The Energy Strategist/The Energy Letter • MLP Profits/MLP Investing Insider • Personal Finance 2. MericaInternational • Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President • Conduct due diligence • Develop technologies • Presently working with Advanced Green Innovations in Arizona 3. Freelance writer/commentator • Managing Editor, Energy Trends Insider • Guest columns in Washington Post, Forbes, Wall Street Journal, The Economist • TV appearances on 60 Minutes, The History Channel, and PBS

  5. Author of Power Plays • Published in 2012 • Layman’s guide to energy • Overview of energy options • History of US energy policy • Due diligence primer

  6. TES Philosophy andPortfolio Review

  7. My Money Philosophies • Spend less than I earn • Minimize personal debt • Invest in businesses I understand • Invest in profitable but out of favor businesses • Understand the risk level • Avoid investments that are overly dependent on government subsidies and/or mandates • Identify long-term trends and invest for the long term • Have an exit strategy

  8. A Few Energy Philosophies • Energy is nearly as important to society as is food and water • There is no economic, scalable substitute for oil • Oil prices will continue to be driven by growth in developing countries • A long natural gas boom is underway • Coal and nuclear power face headwinds • Investing in advanced biofuel companies is a good way to lose money

  9. TES 2013 in Review • Purged 27 holdover companies, including royalty trusts and several foreign companies • Average return of companies after selling was -5.7% • Added 27 companies from across the energy spectrum • Average annualized return of new buys was 28% versus 22 percent advance for the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) • Kept 18 companies from previous regime • Average annualized return of holdovers was 28% • Full performance summary in December 27 TES story “Counting Our Blessings”

  10. Q1 2014 Report • Energy Select Sector SPDR down 1% • S&P 500 up 1% • TES portfolios up 1.8% • 12 TES “Best Buys” up 7.6% • Two in the red and six returning double digits • Major moves in Q1 by American Railcar (NYSE: ARII), up 52%, and First Solar (NYSE: FSLR) up 30%

  11. Current Best Buys * I own shares in this company

  12. 2014 Investment Landscape

  13. The Case for Natural Gas

  14. Global Shale Basins

  15. Shale Gas Resources

  16. North American Shale Basins

  17. Gas Production Surges

  18. Rigs Shift to More Lucrative Oil

  19. The Long Term Natural Gas Drivers

  20. LNG Exports • Two dozen liquefied natural gas (LNG) export license applications under review at DOE • Total capacity of all licenses applications is 35.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) • This is equivalent to just over half the natural gas production in the US in 2012 • Thirteen companies have applied to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) • 2 West Coast, 2 East Coast, 9 Gulf Coast • 18 Bcfd total proposed capacity • Cheniere Energy Partners LP (NYSE MKT: CQP) scheduled to start exporting LNG in Q4 2015

  21. EPA Phase-out of Mercury • Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) • Designed to limit emissions of mercury and other toxic substances; implementation in 2015 and 2016 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

  22. EPA Curb on Carbon Emissions • Proposed limit of 1,100 lb CO2/MWhfor new power plants • Coal-fired power without expensive carbon sequestration unable to meet this standard • Average emission rates in the US from coal-fired generation are: 2,249 lbs/MWh of carbon dioxide • Average emissions rates in the US from natural gas-fired generation are: 1135 lbs/MWh of carbon dioxide • EPA: “EIA projections show that natural gas is likely to be the most widely-used fossil fuel for new construction of electric generating capacity through 2020”

  23. Natural Gas Vehicles

  24. A Relevant Digression • I am currently working to help commercialize a natural gas conversion kit for heavy trucking and power generation • Embedded at Advanced Green Innovations in Phoenix • They have developed the world's first non-invasive diesel to natural gas engine conversion kit that provides full diesel power and torque -- www.zhro.com

  25. The Short Term Natural Gas Drivers

  26. Understanding Gas Inventories • US natural gas consumption is seasonal • During “injection season”, gas is stored under pressure in depleted oil or gas reservoirs, in natural aquifers, or in salt caverns • Injection season lasts from ~April 1st to ~mid-November • Inventories are then drawn down through the winter • Abnormally cold or warm winters can have a lingering on natural gas prices Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014

  27. Natural Gas Inventories

  28. Natural Gas Inventories 1995-96 Gas prices rise 168%

  29. Natural Gas Inventories 2000-01 Gas prices rise above $10/MMBtu

  30. Natural Gas Inventories 2002-03 Gas prices rise above $15/MMBtu

  31. Natural Gas Inventories 2011-12 Gas prices fall below $2/MMBtu

  32. Natural Gas Inventories 2013-14 Largest gas withdrawal on record

  33. A Long, Cold Winter • Natural gas inventories are 53 percent below normal

  34. A Long, Cold Winter • Inventories not expected to recover before 2016 Prices crashed

  35. From my presentation last year: “Natural gas is cheap”

  36. Natural gas highlights • Henry Hub spot price on May 31, 2013 was $4.02 per million Btu • Henry Hub spot price on April 29, 2014 was $4.83 per million Btu – an increase of just over 20 percent • Added Cabot Oil and Gas (NYSE: COG) to the Growth Portfolio on 3/13/13 • Nation’s 12th largest gas producer • Total return to date of 19.2 percent • Added Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) to the Aggressive Portfolio on 5/13/13 • Nation’s 2nd largest gas producer • Total return to date of 43.5 percent • Added Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) to the Growth Portfolio on 9/25/13 • Nation’s 4th largest gas producer • Total return to date of 19.1 percent

  37. Top 20 US Gas Producers Denotes portfolio holding

  38. Disconnects Create Opportunity • Cabot Oil and Gas COG drops based on short-term factors I pick up shares at $35

  39. Natural gas takeaways • Natural gas in the early stages of a long-term growth phase • Short-term investors should exercise more caution, as gas producers have surged recently • Downside risk short-term would be an unusually mild summer followed by a mild winter • 100% of natural gas-weighted portfolio holdings have been winners to date

  40. The Shale Oil Boom Continues

  41. Global Opportunity

  42. Developing Regions Want Oil

  43. Shale Oil Resources

  44. Shale Oil Rising

  45. Top US Oil Producers Graphic source: The Economist

  46. Notable Portfolio Holdings • 4 of the Top 5 US oil producers • 3 of the Top 4 Bakken oil producers • Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) • Whiting Petroleum (NYSE: WLL) • EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) – also top producer in Eagle Ford Formation • Top producer in the Permian Basin • Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY)

  47. Coal and Nuclear Power

  48. Global Coal Consumption

  49. Nuclear Woes

  50. Nuclear and coal industries will be driven by growth in India and China, but will face plenty of headwinds

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