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INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling

Paulo Nobre INPE-CPTEC. INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling. Apoio:. Outline. Background development coupled O-A model at CPTEC Current operational version 1.0 Seasonal and extended weather examples Skill assessments Climate studies Development of version 2.0

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INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling

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  1. Paulo Nobre INPE-CPTEC INPE-CPTEC’s effort on Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modeling Apoio: Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

  2. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Outline • Background development coupled O-A model at CPTEC • Current operational version 1.0 • Seasonal and extended weather examples • Skill assessments • Climate studies • Development of version 2.0 • Future plans

  3. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Background • Originated from COLA coupled ocean-atmosphere model • V. 0: COLA AGCM, RAS, SIB, T42L18, anomaly coupling to MOM_2 at 1/3 degree deep global tropics, L20. • Version 1.0: CPTEC/COLA AGCM, RAS, SSiB, T062L28, fully coupled to MOM_3 at ¼ degree deep global tropics, L20.

  4. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Development of INPE’s CPTEC CGCM 2.0 • AGCM: • CPTEC.2.0 MPI, T213L64 • Kuo/RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection • Shallow cumulus convection (diurnal cycle related…), • improved solar radiation algorithm • LSM: SSiB/IBIS • OGCM: • MOM4 MPI, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50, free sfc, fresh water flux; • Dynamical ice • Biogeochemistry • MOM4’s FSM coupler • 3 hours coupling interval

  5. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 MOM 4’s FMS COUPLER Coupler Init Coupled Loop SST-2-Atmos Sfc Boundary Layer Flux Ocean to Ice Atmos Model Run Atmos-2-Ice Update Ice Model up Flux down from Atmos Avg psurf Atmos Loop Fast Update Land Model Atmos Loop End Update Ice Model Flux up to Atmos Update Land Model Slow Loop Update Atmos Model up Flux Land to Ice Update Ice Model down Flux Ice to Ocean Ocean Loop Fast Update Ocean Model Ocean Loop End Coupled Loop Coupler End

  6. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere predictability experiment • OGCM Modular Ocean Model (MOM) version 3 • Global Tropics (40S – 40N) • 1/4 x 1/4 degree deep tropics of the Atlantic Ocean • Pacanowski and Philander vertical mixing • Rigid lid approximation • CGCM: (daily, fully coupled) to CPTEC AGCM, T062L28, RAS, SSiB. • Atmos IC: NCEP • Ocean IC: MOM3 forced runs, no Ocean Data Assimilation • 10 members, 20 years of 8 month forecast runs starting at each calendar month for both AGCM and CGCM.

  7. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 OGCM Grid High Res: 0.25º Lon Lat Tropical Atlantic

  8. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Tau & Heat daily OGCM OGCM Coupled Ocean-Atmos GCM Suite Coupled Forecast Initialization IC NCEP IC NCEP IC NCEP ICs NCEP AGCM Atmos FCSTs SST SFC Fluxes IC

  9. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

  10. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

  11. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Increased Coupled Model Forecast Skill Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)‏

  12. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Scientific Motivation: SACZ low predictability MAM DJF CPTEC AGCM, 50 years, 10 Member Ensemble, Kuo, T062L28, Obs SST Marengo et al. (2002)

  13. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere processes at playDJF Precipitation Forecasts anomaly correlations Decreased Coupled Model Forecast Skill Nobre et al. (2008, in prep)‏

  14. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM Climatology OGCM Climatology OI-SST / NCEP Reanalysis Eastern Oceans’ Coupled O-A Interactions

  15. CGCM SWRad systematic errors Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008

  16. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM Current operational runs at CPTEC • CGCM – seasonal climate • T062L28, RAS • 10 Members per month • 7 months forecast • CGCM – extended weather • T126L28, RAS, • 2 members per day • 30 days forecast

  17. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 SLP FCST BIASOVER SE BRAZIL Ensemble AVN CGCM CPTEC213 CPTEC126

  18. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 SLP RMSE over South America

  19. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Anomaly Correlation Geopot. Hight over South America

  20. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Catarina Tropical Storm Hits Brazil 26 March 2004

  21. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 72 hours CATARINA FCSTCGCM-AGCM (T62L28) SLPci: 12Z24MAR2004 FCST: 12Z27MAR2004 Nobre and Malagutti, (pers. comm)

  22. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM Niño 3.4 SST Drift

  23. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CTRL Total deforest 25% rainfall reduction

  24. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CTRL Total Deforest 40% rainfall reduction

  25. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 CGCM 100% deforest departures TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION Statistically significant departures are shaded Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  26. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Pacific Thermocline DepthDeforest – Ctrl (shades)‏ Statistically significant departures are shaded Nobre et al. (2008) accepted

  27. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 AAIW NADW NADW AABW MOM4 Atlantic Meridional Transport (Sv)

  28. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling30 days avrg spinup SST

  29. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily coupling30 days avrg spinup Precip

  30. Workshop on Weather and Seasonal Climate Modeling at INPE - 9DEC2008 Hydrology Model Health Model AGCM Crop Model 6 hourly Regional Model Atmos OBS Wave Model T-S SST hourly OGCM IC INPE’s Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal Data Assimilation Coupled Forecast AGCM Atmos FCST daily/hourly OGCM SFC fluxes

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