Keynote Session : Community health check. How is the patient?

1. Keynote Session :Community health check. How is the patient? Chair of session: John Hopkins,Chief Executive, South African Housing Foundation Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI

2. Community Health CheckBen PageChief Executive – Ipsos MORI ben.page@ipsos.com@benatipsosmori

3. A slower recovery than in all previous recessions Source: NIESR

4. More than a lost decade for wages Crisis and Aftermath Median wages (real) Steady Growth Stagnation Source: Resolution Foundation

5. Are our children about to enter a ‘lost generation’? When they reach your age, do you think your children will have a higher or lower quality of life than you, or about the same? April 2003 November 2011 Not applicable Not applicable Higher Don’t know Higher About the same Don’t know About the same Lower Lower Base: c500-1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

6. Also getting harsher The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”

7. “Crisis” what crisis?

8. Strong satisfaction with home Q. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with your home? Very dissatisfied Fairly dissatisfied Neither/nor Fairly satisfied Very satisfied Base: 1,006 British adults, 11-17 November 2011(undertaken before publication of Government’s Housing Strategy) Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI

9. Satisfaction with accommodation and neighbourhood remain high, while fewer properties are non-decent Source: English Housing Survey

10. But are they? Q. Which of these, if any, apply to your home? It is too small/lacks space (indoor or outdoor) It is too expensive It is too far from family/friends It is too far from place of work It is the wrong type of accommodation It is in poor condition Other Any of these None of these Base: 1,006 British adults, 11-17 November 2011 Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI

11. Our research shows people need homes not houses Homes are a reflection of self Need for flexibility Adapting behaviours Vs Adapting homes Source: RIBA – Future Homes

12. And unmet demand & aspirations

13. Pessimism among renters about buying prospects Q. To what extent do you agree or disagree that: “I don’t believe I will ever be able to afford to buy a home”? Don’t know Strongly disagree Strongly agree Tend to disagree Neither/nor Tend to agree Base: All renters i.e. adults 16+ not buying/owning (354) Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI

14. Aspiration strong across all tenure groups % of each tenure group who would choose to buy rather than rent Source: British Social Attitudes Survey Base: 2,795 British adults, June-November 2010

15. Tenure trends suggest ambition frustrated Million households A recent National Housing Federation study has forecast that ownership in England will slump to just 63.8% over the next decade – the lowest level since the mid-1980s. Source: English Housing Survey

16. PRS: less the ‘tenure of choice’?, more tenure of reality? Q. What type of accommodation do you ideally WANT to move into next? Q. And what type of accommodation do you EXPECT to move into next? A third want to own their home…but only 15% expect to. Private rented accommodation is expected to fill this gap. Base: All potential consumers who intend/want to move (2,281) Source: HCA Consumer demand and attitudes in the intermediate market (Ipsos MORI 2010)

17. Dangerous territory politically? “It’s not just about the economy, it’s also about people’s hopes and dreams…You always remember that moment, if you’ve done it, when you get that key and walk into your firstflat…It’s a moment I want everyone in this country to have”

18. But opportunity too “property-owning democracy” “private property is one of the main bulwarks of individual freedom”

19. Among renters, the appetite to buy is strongest among the young Q. Apart from what you would like, do you expect to buy a house or a flat in the next two years, or not? Renters only Net preference to buy over rent % No, do not expect to buy % Yes, expect to buy Total +36 18-34 +56 +39 35-54 +14 55-64 -19 65+ Source: British Social Attitudes Survey Base: Renters only

20. No house market slump like Stateside but…

21. ‘Priced-out’ yes, but job security also key barrier to buying and growing concern over household finances Q. Which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Base: 1,986 (Oct) 2,009 (Jan) British adults 16+ Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

22. While prices relatively resilient, a stay-put market Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? % 76% 74% 61% Good time Bad time -43 -63 -64 Net good time 18% 13% 10% 6-19 Jan2012 6-14 Apr2011 7-13 Oct2011 Survey period Base: 987 (Apr), 1,986 (Oct) British adults 16+ Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

23. While affordability a low long-term concern • How concerned, if at all, are you with your ability to pay the rent/your mortgage repayments in 12 months time? Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don’t know Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI Base: 1,006 British adults, 11-17 November 2011

24. Sense that mortgages are riskier Q To what extent do you agree or disagree that. . . “Having a mortgage is more risky than it used to be”? Don’t know Strongly disagree Strongly agree Tend to disagree By 2:1 mortgage holders agree Neither/nor Tend to agree Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI Base: 1,006 British adults, 11-17 November 2011

25. Pessimism about future affordability To what extent do you agree or disagree… “Housing will become more affordable over the next two years or so” Strongly agree Don’t know Tend to agree Neither/nor Strongly disagree Tend to disagree Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI Base: 1,006 British adults, 11-17 November 2011

26. So, there is a crisis?

27. People feel it To what extent do you agree or disagree…”There is a housing crisis in Britain”? Don’t know Strongly disagree Tend to disagree Strongly agree Neither/nor Tend to agree http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2888/Threequarters-sense-housing-crisis-in-Britain.aspx Base: 1,006 British adults, 11-17 November 2011 Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI

28. Want more affordable homes as a priority Q. This list shows a selection of issues associated with housing in Britain. Which one or two do you think should be the highest priority for the Government to deal with? Building more affordable homes Making it easier for first-time buyers to own or part-own their homes Reducing the no. of empty homes Improving run down estates and neighbourhoods Tackling homelessness and rough sleeping Making homes more energy efficient http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2888/Threequarters-sense-housing-crisis-in-Britain.aspx Tackling bad landlords Base: 1,006 British adults, 11-17 November 2011 Source: Channel 4/Ipsos MORI

29. At least a plurality support for new homes everywhere except in the South Q. To what extent would you support or oppose……the building of more new homes in your community? % oppose % support Total London North Midlands South Metropolitan Urban Rural Suburban Base: 1,002 British adults 16+ interviewed 6-12 May 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI/Inside Housing

30. Peoples’ key concerns are: over-population and change impact on schools, health services, roads and public transport loss of community – “being swamped” houses for new people – “not my kids” loss of green fields jobs will not go “to locals” But our research shows people hold NIMBY tendencies Source: Ipsos MORI (various qualitative research projects)

31. But public position on development is often conditional Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree that... % disagree % agree More needs to be done to preserve the historic nature of our town centres I would support more houses being built if it meant better shops/facilities This area needs more housing & jobs (half sample) This area needs more housing & jobs so young people stay (half sample) Source: Ipsos MORI/ High Peak Borough Council Base: 816 High Peak residents, 18+, Feb-Apr 1999

32. Involvement and influence are not as important as decent repairs and simple communications % satisfied Keeping tenants informed Repairs and maintenance Neighbourhood as a place to live Overall quality of your home Value for money for rent Taking tenants’ views into account % Important Base: All valid responses, 18 local authorities, Tenants Survey 2008 * % of tenants rating this as ‘Good’

33. VFM

34. Money moneymoney What would you say is the most important issue facing your sector today? % Top mentions Base: 338 Public Sector Leaders, 27 June – 22 July 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI

35. Politicians and the public in the way? Q What do you think is the biggest barrier, if any, to delivering shared services in the local government sector? % Top 10 mentions Base: 150 senior local authority officers in England Telephone interviews conducted between 29 November and 17 December 2010. Source: Ipsos MORI/Browne Jacobson

36. Unresolved challenge of localism

37. Public want more local control – but worried about local variation Q To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: % Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Tend to disagree % Strongly disagree People should have more control over how public services are provided locally People should have more control over how public services are provided locally, even though it will mean that the services residents receive will vary between local areas* Base: 631 British adults 18+. *Base: 622 British adults 18+Fieldwork: 18-19 April 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI/Economist

38. But when asked about specific services, the majority them to be the same Q Please can you tell me which of these statements comes closest to your own opinion: People should be able to decide for themselves how … is provided in their area …should be the same everywhere in Britain The health service Recycling Base: 1,002 adults in Great Britain aged 16+. Fieldwork dates: 13-19 May 2010

39. The Big Society?

40. But ultimately the public support the “enabling state”, the “nanny state” and even the “nudging” state

41. So far trends in wrong direction Proportion who have given any unpaid help to non-relatives in the last 12 months Base: All valid responses from core sample in England (~8,000 surveyed per wave) Source: Citizenship Survey

42. Volunteering and giving on a downward slide - can explain by background characteristics… England % of respondents Informal volunteering in last 12 months Formal volunteering in last 12 months IMD Deciles (England) Base: England c.8,700 adults aged 16+ (Citizenship Study 2009/10)

43. General support for greater involvement from the voluntary sector – especially in non-core services

44. Two in five don’t mind who provides health services as long as they are free of charge Q To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “As long as health services are free of charge, it doesn’t matter to me whether they are provided by the NHS or a private company” Don’t know Strongly agree Strongly disagree Tend to agree Tend to disagree Neither agree nor disagree Source: Ipsos MORI /Nuffield Trust Base: 993 English adults 18+, interviewed face-to-face, 18-24 February, 2011

45. Charities and not for profits are top-of-mind for care Some charities and some private companies receive funding from government to provide certain public services, such as healthcare services, care for the elderly, services for disabled people etc. Other public services are provided directly by public authorities such as the NHS or local councils. Of these three types of service provider, which one do you think would be BEST at… Providing a caring and compassionate service Understanding what service users need Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,001 British adults, 20-26 November 2009

46. Attitudes to best provider for quality of service are more mixed Some charities and some private companies receive funding from government to provide certain public services, such as healthcare services, care for the elderly, services for disabled people etc. Other public services are provided directly by public authorities such as the NHS or local councils. Of these three types of service provider, which one do you think would be BEST at… Providing the best quality of service for the money Providing a professional and reliable service Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,001British adults, 20-26 November 2009

47. …and charities / NFPs do need to fit into context of wider service provision Some charities and some private companies receive funding from government to provide certain public services, such as healthcare services, care for the elderly, services for disabled people etc. Other public services are provided directly by public authorities such as the NHS or local councils. Of these three types of service provider, which one do you think would be BEST at… Deciding exactly what type of service should be provided Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,001British adults, 20-26 November 2009

48. 1,000,000

49. ...some worrying trends How much do you trust a British government of any party to place the needs of this country above the interests of their own political party? % “almost never” Source: British Social Attitudes, 1986-2005

50. But some scepticism not a new thing… Do you think British politicians are out merely for themselves, for their party or to do their best for their country? Don’t know Their country Themselves Their party Base: c. 1,000 British adults, August 1944 Source: Gallup, reported in George H Gallup (1976), The Gallup International Public Opinion Polls: Great Britain 1937-1975 (Random House, New York), volume I, p 96.