Regional analysis in the context of the European Union. Statistics, tools and applications

1. Regional analysis in the context of the European Union. Statistics, tools and applications Alessandro Daraio Guglielmo Wolleb European Union policies and projects International Business and Development Degree CourseUniversity of Parma a.y. 2013/2014

2. Outline • Part One • An introduction to territorial analysis • About Eurostat • Overview of “Regions and cities” Eurostat dataset • Exploration and exploitation of Eurostat dataset • Part Two • Putting regional analysis into practice: an application to Emilia-Romagna region

3. An introduction to territorial analysis • A double role for statistics in contemporary society: • Decision-makers in government and in business need statistics to make decisions • The public and media need statistics for an accurate picture of contemporary society and to evaluate the performance of politicians and other institutions and decision-makers • The use of statistics for socio-economic analysis is one of the pre-requisite for the elaboration of a development strategy based on scientific foundations

4. An introduction to territorial analysis • To define the correct scale upon which to “read” economic-territorial systems is a tricky issue • The macro-level approach allows to consider system dimensions and interrelations which impact territories, but suppresses detail information (i.e. local, sectoral, etc.) • The micro-economic approach proves useful for analysing single cases in depth, thus entailing the risk of concentrating attention on individual cases and losing the overarching view of the phenomena • Both macro-economic and micro-economic viewpoints cannot fulfill the informative needs of a territorial analysis with a policy orientation. An intermediate scale approach is necessary to simplify data, enable their actual use and, at the same time, cleverly manage information consistently with actual policy needs

5. An introduction to territorial analysis • The quantitative territorial analysis process normally consists of one or more of the following approaches: • A descriptive analysis in a regional context • A comparative analysis –consisting of comparison of relevant development indicators upon a benchmark territorial scale (national, European, etc.)- in order to identify critical issues indicating their extent and context • An impact analysis, and namely: • an ex ante analysis involving the assessment of foreseeable and expected consequences of a change in one or more exogenous stimuli which will influence the elements characterising a region • an ex post assessment of the consequences of an intervention effected in the past

6. An introduction to territorial analysis • For the most part, regional socioeconomic analysis relies on the use of secondary data already collected, organized, and disseminated by other organizations • To fill gaps in knowledge not addressed by secondary data, data analysis can be aided to some extent by primary data collection, through tools such as surveys and interviews. Other qualitative tools, i.e. literature review, may be useful to guide the analysis • The efficacy of the analysis depends on 1) the depth, quality and accessibility of secondary data and 2) the analyst’s awareness of data sources and methods for exploring and exploiting those data

7. About Eurostat • Eurostat is the statistical office of the European Union, situated in Luxembourg. Its mission is to provide the European Union with high-quality statistics at European level enabling comparisons between countries and regions. • Eurostat was established in 1953 to meet the requirements of the Coal and Steel Community. Over the years its task has broadened and in 1958 it became a Directorate-General (DG) of the European Commission, with the key role to supply statistics to other DGs and supply the Commission and other European Institutions with data. • Eurostat’s role has changed along with the development of Community policies, with increasing importance on collecting data for EMU and developing statistical systems in candidate countries for EU membership.

8. About Eurostat • European statistics are developed, produced, and disseminated on the basis of uniform standards and harmonised methods. • Traditionally, the National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) of the Member States collect and produce harmonised data that are compiled by Eurostat to construct statistics at EU level. Initially it happened on a voluntary agreements base, but there has been a continuous drive to base the collection of statistics on legislation. • The new Regulation on statistics introduced the European Statistical System (ESS) in order to improve efficiency through • a systematic collaboration between NSIs and Eurostat • a move towards the so-called data warehouse approach • the combination of survey data with administrative data • the European approach to statistics (EU sampling)

9. “Regions and cities” Eurostat dataset • One section in public Eurostat dataset which provides a single access point to Eurostat's sub-national statistics • Data at geographical level NUTS2 or NUTS3 • Data organized in 13 data collections • http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu • European Commission > Eurostat > Statistics > Statistics by theme > Regions and cities > Data • Main tables • Database

10. “Regions and cities” Eurostat dataset • Database • Building and downloading tables of data • To calculate regional demographic growth 2000-2012 • To calculate labour dependency ratio in 2012 and compare with the level in 2000 • Main tables • Exploiting Graph and Map tools • To compare regional demographic density in EU in 2011 • Publications • European Regional and Urban Statistics. Reference Guide • Eurostat regional yearbook 2013 • http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

11. “Regions and cities” Eurostat dataset • Database • To calculate labour dependency ratio in 2012

12. Complementary sources • Eurostat city statistics – Urban Audit • ESPON, the European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion • European Commission sectoral report and studies • OECD databases and studies • Regional statistics portal and eXplorer tool • Territorial reviews

13. Further exercises • To calculate the level of labour productivity in a given region (last year available) and its medium term growth rate • Gross value added / persons employed • To calculate the index of specialization of the manufacturing sector of a given region with respect to the country and European structure • Share of manufacturing sub-categories total employment in the region / share of the same sub-categories in the benchmark economy

14. Putting regional analysis into practice: an application to Emilia-Romagna region

15. Confusing figures • How Emilia-Romagna labour market is performing compared to other regions? • Very bad: between 2000 and 2010 the unemployment rate in Emilia-Romagna has grown 4 times more than the European one • Extremely bad: between 2000 and 2010 the unemployment rate in Emilia-Romagna has grown by 42.5% while in Italy it has decreased by 20.75% • Very good: employment rate in Emilia-Romagna has grown 3.6 times more than the European one between 2000 and 2010 • Good: Employment rate in Emilia-Romagna is 3.4% higher than the European Union average rate in 2010 • Very bad: between 2003 and 2010 the employment rate in Emilia-Romagna has fallen by 1.32% while in the European Union (on average) has grown by 2.40%

16. Confusing figures • Playing with statistics • To choose the right indicator • To choose between levels and trend information • To choose the most appropriate (territorial) benchmark • To choose the correct year for time comparisons

17. Emilia-Romagna: preliminary picture • About 7% of the Italian total area and population (7° among Italian regions) • 8.8% of national GDP and 8.4 of total employment • GDP per capita is 127% of the EU27 average (in the top 40 regions rank)

18. Demographic dimension

19. Selected demographic indicators demo_r_d2jan; demo_r_d3dens demo_r_d2jan; demo_r_d3dens

20. Selected demographic indicators demo_r_gind3; demo_gind

21. Selected demographic indicators demo_r_d2jan or demo_r_pjanaggr3; demo_pjangroup

22. Selected demographic indicators Share of total population by age group - 2012 demo_r_d2jan; demo_pjangroup

23. The demographic pyramid demo_r_d2jan; demo_pjan

24. Demographic attractiveness (internal migration) migr_r_2arr; migr_r_2dep; migr_r_2it

25. Partial conclusions - Demography • Stable amount of population between 1990 and 2000; in the next decade population grew by 6% due to the strengthening of migration flows which overcame the negative trend of the natural rate • In comparative terms, the population growth over the past decade was higher than in the rest of Italy and Europe. The rate of migration is also higher than in the rest of the country. • The age composition of population stands out relatively to the EU for a lower share of young people and for a higher share of aged people (also confirmed by the dependency ratio). But it is also characterized by a higher share of people in central age, probably as a result of immigration flows. • Looking at the internal flows of migration, Emilia-Romagna attracts people from all Italian regions. The bulk of immigration comes from the South -Campania, Puglia, Sicily- but also from Lombardia

26. Partial conclusions - Demography • As for the future, the issues at stake are: • a low potential increase of population. Indeed, given the negative natural rate, it depends essentially on immigration flows • the ageing of population, which put pressure on the welfare system, may have a negative impact on the propensity to change and innovate, reduces the ratio between working and not working people • the impact of a rising share of foreign people. Immigration flows may have beneficial effects in terms of growth and of composition of population -and also in terms of cultural diversity- but pose serious problems of integration with the local communities • the loss of population in mountain areas, with negative consequences on the living conditions of population of these areas, on the conservation of cultural heritage and identity of local communities, and on environment and landscape

27. The macroeconomic frame

28. GDP at current market prices – Millions of PPS nama_r_e3gdp; nama_gdp_c

29. GDP at current market prices - PPS per inhabitant nama_r_e3gdp; nama_gdp_c

30. Real growth rate of regional GDP at market prices nama_r_e2grgdp; tsieb020

31. GDP and main components at current market prices – Levels and growth rate

32. GDP and main components at constant market prices – Levels and growth rate

33. Gross labour productivity (1.000 PPS GDP per employed person) In 2010 the level of productivity in E-R was 1.56% lower than in 2007. A decrease was registered also in Nord-Est and Italy nama_r_e3gdp; nama_gdp_c; sbs_r_nuts06_r2; nama_nace06_e

34. Exports, imports and trade balance

35. Distribution of Provinces (NUTS 3) by per capita GDP Update for RER not possible nama_r_e3gdp

36. Distribution of Provinces by per capita GDP in 1998 and growth rate

37. The macroeconomic frame

38. Partial conclusions – Macroeconomic profile • Emilia Romagna is a wealthy region in Europe and in Italy, but it is also a slow growing region which is loosing ground compared to the rest of Europe. This trend has led to a strong reduction of the positive gap in GDP per capita: in 1998 the Emilia Romagna GDP per capita was 32% higher than the EU15 and 52% higher than the EU27; this gap narrowed respectively to 15% and 27% ten years later • At the beginning of the decade the region emerged as a high productivity region by European standards. Since then the rate of productivity growth has been low and the gap with other Europeans regions has reduced or disappeared • There are significant disparities in terms of GDP per capita among the various provinces. The difference between the provinces with the highest and the lowest GDP per capita is 25%, but during the last decade there has been a trend towards convergence

39. Partial conclusions – Macroeconomic profile • Emilia Romagna region is a very open economy. The degree of internalization is very high compared to national and European standards alike. Exports play a driving role in the overall economy and the trade balance is structurally in surplus

40. Partial conclusions – Macroeconomic profile • The main issues at stake are: • the slow rate of growth of GDP and of productivity in the last decade. These trends may in the long run decrease the standard of public services and, more generally, the quality of life of population and are a signal of weakening competitiveness of the region in the world economy • The capacity of exports to remain competitive in the world markets • the ability to absorb, integrate and enhance the growing population of foreign workers

41. Labour market

42. Labour market - Selected indicators 2012 lfst_r_lfp2actrt; lfsi_act_a; lfst_r_lfp2act

43. Labour market - Selected indicators 2012 lfst_r_lfe2emp; lfst_r_lfe2emprt; lfsi_emp_a

44. Labour market - Selected indicators 2012 lfst_r_lfu3pers; lfst_r_lfu3rt; lfst_r_lfu2ltu; une_rt_a

45. Partial conclusions – Labour market • Emilia-Romagna stands out in Italy and in Europe for high rates of activity and employment and low rates of unemployment • The region performs poorly compared to EU only for the rate of employment of aged people and for young unemployment rate • Within the national context all indicators of the labour market show a much better situation than in the rest of the country • Like in most of European regions, as a consequence of the economic crisis the official rate of unemployment soared in the last three years from 3% to 6%, but the real rate, accounting also for not working people placed in the social safety system, is even higher • A negative feature of the regional labour market not emerging from our data is the high share of temporary work, especially among young people and women. Temporary work is widespread in all sectors, with peaks in the service sector

46. Labour market

47. Partial conclusions – Labour market • The main issues at stake regarding the labour market are: • The impact of the crisis on the labour market with a soaring rate of unemployment • The high share of temporary jobs among young people and women, producing uncertainty and instability in the working and private life alike • The growing share of foreign workers • The low rate of employment of people over 60

48. Composing the puzzle: the growth identity demo_r_d2jan; demo_pjangroup; lfsi_act_a; lfst_r_lfe2emp; nama_r_e3gdp; nama_gdp_c

49. Composing the puzzle: the growth identity (1998-2008) demo_r_d2jan; demo_pjangroup; lfsi_act_a; lfst_r_lfe2emp; nama_r_e3gdp; nama_gdp_c

50. Composing the puzzle: the growth identity