Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM Vice-chair

1. ICES’ advice for 2010 Presentation to the BSRAC Demersal Working Group Tuesday 9th June 2009 Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Copenhagen, Denmark Dr Carl O’Brien ACOM Vice-chair

2. ICES’ advice for 2010 • Released on the ICES’ web-site on 29th May 2009 • Advice released concerns: • Cod, herring, sprat and salmon stocks • Sea trout and flatfishes • EC request on multi-annual management plan for Baltic pelagic stocks • Advice for Western Baltic herring is being developed in conjunction with the advice on North Sea herring and will be released on 26th June 2009

3. ICES’ advice for 2010 • Advice on pelagic stocks: • Herring (excluding Western Baltic) and sprat will be presented by Steen Christensen on behalf of ICES on 15th June 2009.

4. ICES’ advice process - aspects • General approach • Benchmarking • Management plan evaluation • Work programme (calendar dates)

5. ICES’ advice process - general • Begins with an assessment of the status of the fish stocks involving scientists from the Baltic countries • The assessments are reviewed by experts not involved with the assessments • Draft advice is developed based on this reviewed assessment by scientists from the Baltic countries and the reviewers • Advice is approved by the ICES’ Advisory Committee (ACOM): • constituted by one scientist from each of the 20 ICES’ member countries plus a chair and four vice-chairs

6. ICES’ advice process - benchmarking • Comprehensive and thorough investigation • Biology … data … models … etcetera • Inclusive process • Scientists … industry … policy … stakeholders … • Stocks benchmarked in 2009 include: • Western Baltic cod • Eastern Baltic cod • Results presented and discussed at BSRAC meeting on 18th March 2009

7. ICES’ management plan evaluation • EC cod management plan evaluated by ICES in early March 2009: • Western Baltic cod • Aim to reach and maintain a fishing mortality rate at 0.6; annual reduction of fishing mortality by 10% • Eastern Baltic cod • Aim to reach a fishing mortality rate no higher than 0.3; annual reduction of fishing mortality by 10% • Review Group on Cod Management Plans (16th – 27th March 2009) • Coby Needle, UK • Jan Horbowy, Poland • Alexandre Kempf. Germany

8. ICES’ management plan evaluation • ICES assumed that: • Current settings of the assessment model are largely maintained • Effort reduction is fully achieved • Biological parameters as assumed unchanged in the medium-term • Exploitation pattern remains unchanged • Observation error remains in the range of magnitude tested • ICES concluded that each management plan is in accordance with the precautionary approach • Applying the plan in its current design • Reference year of 2015

9. ICES’ advice process - dates • ICES’ WKROUND (16th – 23rd January 2009) • Chair (Pamela Mace, New Zealand) • ICES’ co-ordinators (Chris Darby, Eero Aro) • ICES’ Baltic Fisheries Assessment Working Group (22nd – 28th April 2009) • Chair (Steen Christensen, Denmark) • ICES’ Baltic Sea Review Group (11th – 15th May 2009) • Chair (Asgeir Aglen, Norway) • ICES’ Baltic Sea Advice Drafting Group (18th – 20th May 2009) • Chair (Reidar Toresen, Norway) • ICES’ Advisory Committee (25th May 2009) • Chair (Carl O’Brien, ICES) • Observers (Niki Sporrong, Ottilia Thoreson) MP evaluation

10. ICES’ advice for 2010 Baltic cod and flatfish stocks

11. ICES’ advice for 2010 Western Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 22-24 • Estimated fishing mortality above target and has been stable during the last three years • Discard estimates are considered uncertain, but not very large compared to landings

12. ICES’ advice for 2010 Western Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 22-24 • Recent recruitments have been weak • Surveys indicate that the 2008 year-class may be the strongest since the 2003 year-class

13. ICES’ advice for 2010 Western Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 22-24 • Estimated biomass less than Bpa (23 kt) • Benchmark process has revised the time-series of weights-at-age and proportion mature-at-age

14. ICES’ advice for 2010 • Historical performance • Gives results of recent assessments for spawning stock biomass, fishing mortality and recruitment • Possible retrospective over-estimation of fishing mortality and under-estimation of spawning stock biomass • Less pronounced than previous analytical method used by ICES • Within confidence limits

15. ICES’ advice for 2010

16. ICES’ advice for 2010 Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32 • Estimated fishing mortality in 2008 uncertain but below Fpa (0.6) • Strong support for a declining trend in fishing mortality • Estimated mis-reporting has decreased to 6% in 2008, compared to 32-45% in previous years • Discard estimates are uncertain but not high compared to landings

17. ICES’ advice for 2010 Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32 • Recruitment has been low over the last 20 years • 2005 and 2006 year-classes are estimated to be the strongest in 20 years

18. ICES’ advice for 2010 Eastern Baltic - Cod in Subdivisions 25-32 • Estimated spawning stock biomass in 2008 is at a low level but estimated to be twice as high as in 2005 • Biomass reference points not defined

19. ICES’ advice for 2010 • Historical performance • Gives results of recent assessments for spawning stock biomass, fishing mortality and recruitment • No problems! • Note that whilst the estimated fishing mortality for 2008 is considered to be rather uncertain, there is strong support for a declining trend in fishing mortality

20. ICES’ advice for 2010

21. ICES’ advice for 2010 Baltic flatfish stocks … no advice category

22. ICES’ advice for 2010 Flounder in Subdivisions 22-32 • Stock structure is not clear (migration studies) • Uncertainties in age-reading are inadequate to establish reliable assessments based on commercial landings data and to evaluate stock trends • Considerable uncertainty about the level of discarding • State of the stock is unknown • No scientific basis for an advice • Future analytical assessment • Improvement in basic data quality • Age-reading exchange programmes and reference collection of otoliths • Discard sampling and analyses

23. ICES’ advice for 2010 • Landings have increased since the late 1990s

24. ICES’ advice for 2010 Brill in Subdivisions 22-32 • Available information (landings: 1994-1996 ?) is inadequate to evaluate stock trends • State of the stock is unknown • No scientific basis for an advice

25. ICES’ advice for 2010 Dab in Subdivisions 22-32 • Available information (landings) is inadequate to evaluate stock trends • State of the stock is unknown • No scientific basis for an advice

26. ICES’ advice for 2010 Plaice in Subdivisions 22-32 • Available information (landings) is inadequate to evaluate stock trends • State of the stock is unknown • No scientific basis for an advice

27. ICES’ advice for 2010 Turbot in Subdivisions 22-32 • Available information (landings) is inadequate to evaluate stock trends • State of the stock is unknown • No scientific basis for an advice

28. ICES’ advice for 2010 Baltic cod and flatfish stocks: Comments and questions