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Political Economy in Asia-Pacific

Political Economy in Asia-Pacific. Associate Professor Linda Low National University of Singapore 7 May 2003. Political economy of identity. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, 1989 ASEAN Regional Forum 1995 Asian-Europe Meeting 1996 East Asian-Latin American Cooperation 1997

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Political Economy in Asia-Pacific

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  1. Political Economy in Asia-Pacific Associate Professor Linda Low National University of Singapore 7 May 2003

  2. Political economy of identity • Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, 1989 • ASEAN Regional Forum 1995 • Asian-Europe Meeting 1996 • East Asian-Latin American Cooperation 1997 • ASEAN10 vs ASEAN6 • East Asia (includes Southeast Asia) since 1997 • Asian crisis, Asian solutions or IMF • China, Japan or ASEAN leadership • 911 and terrorism • South Asia, Australasia?

  3. Northeast Asia political economy • Japan tutelage • flying geese model of trade and investment • SEA as resource base, market • US-Japan implicit division of labour, security • China economic reform, WTO accession • cross strait, Taiwan as domestic issue • economics, culture of Greater China, bamboo network • Korea • sunshine policy, joining OECD 1996, Kim Dae-jung’s East Asian Vision Group

  4. Southeast Asia political economy • From ASEAN preferential trade area to ASEAN free trade area, presently stalled • Most successful developing country group? Before & after China? • Enlargement, widening vs deepening • Indonesia as regional drag • Malaysian politics, Muslim state, not Islam • Thai politics, recovery • Reinvent Singapore Inc

  5. Asia leadership, vision • East Asian Vision Group, East Asian community • Japan vs China, power sharing with ASEAN? • Response, defence or offence to new regionalism, geopolitics, geoeconomics • US-Japan security pact, economics, geopolitics • Small states like Singapore, SAR Hong Kong • US influence and action in cross strait, two Koreas, terrorism, axis of evil, Muslim divide

  6. Asian economics, community • ASEAN/Asian way, noninstitutionalised, noninterference, sovereignty not supranational • Progress of APEC as economic/business model vs ASEM more socio-political, cultural • Economics of East Asia, resources, markets • Demographics eg 2-billion club: 1-child policy China vs youthful India), ageing Japan, rest • Heterogeneous economics as division of labour vs heterogenous politics, socio-culture

  7. Asia political economy model • 1st vs 2nd generation developmental states • different global orders, nationalism & homogeneity in Northeast vs Southeast ethnicity • Transformative capacity with globalisation, information communication technology, knowledge-based economy, deregulation • Old vs new economy, intellectual capital, employment creation, employability • Democratisation, emerging social issues

  8. Converging crises • OECD recovery, global economy • US-Iraq war, repercussions on oil, Muslim world, cross-Atlantic, cross Pacific • Deficit, deflation, dollar, debt • Eurozone recovery weaker than US • Japan still mired in profound stagnation, rising unemployment, bankruptcies, deflation • OECD is no real solution for Asia even if triad maintains 2-3% growth

  9. Northeast Asian trends • Intraregional, domestic engines • Uncertainty, diffident consumer spending • China, Greater China (Pearl River Delta & Yangtze River Delta), bamboo network • Northeast Asian dynamism • Taiwan as big investor, but rebuff from PRC • Korea more resilient despite N-S tensions, domestic demand, low unemployment • Trade and trade balance, tourism • Demographics and labour

  10. Southeast Asian trends • ASEAN linked with Northeast flying geese model more than South Asia (youthful demographics and IT as new engines?) • Rivalry or riches vs Northeast Asia? Competition or Complementation? • Weakened domestic demand with war • Intraregional trade, esp to China helps • Industrial exports holding in Spore, Msia, Viet, Thail, not Indon, Phil

  11. Southeast Asian trends • ASEAN Free Trade Area vs ASEAN+3 • Other overtures to ASEAN by CER (Australia, NZ), Japan, China, India, US • ASEAN marginalised or renewed value? • Bilateral trade arrangements, Japan, Spore, Korea, HK, even Thail, Msia • SEA as resource base, industrial niche, buffer, alternative for diversity, plurality • Managing macroeconomic policies, cooperation, corporate, financial reforms

  12. Trends, prospects • Interregional economics is substantial • Managing second growth round with ICT, KBE, innovation, be globalisation ready? • Political commitment and sustainability • Crisis-induced APT, long term alternative? • Working with global political economy • Irrefutably open Asian economies • Rising profile in world, international political economy, make space for Asia

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