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Prototype 1: status, contents and results

Prototype 1: status, contents and results. Introduction and demonstration of Prototype1 (PT1) tool. Overall contents Overview of current PT1 tool Calculation of regional compliance levels Core models: CAPRI – MITERRA Input data on cross compliance (legal) implementation Output:

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Prototype 1: status, contents and results

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  1. Prototype 1: status, contents and results

  2. Introduction and demonstration of Prototype1 (PT1) tool • Overall contents • Overview of current PT1 tool • Calculation of regional compliance levels • Core models: CAPRI – MITERRA • Input data on cross compliance (legal) implementation • Output: • Environmental and economic impacts per scenario and differences between scenarios • Indirect impacts on biodiversity per scenario and differences between scenarios (derived from environmental and land use changes) • Potential effects of individual and combined measures on Biodiversity and landscape (expert judgement of the measure texts per MS/region). Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  3. Overall contents of current PT1 tool input and output • All core model (CAPRI and Miterra) components with impact assessments (for 6 compliance level scenarios) • Quantitative environmental, economic impacts of Nitrate and Animal registration Directives computed with Miterra-Capri model chain (19 environmental andca. 50 economic impact indicators) • Qualitative impacts of Nitrate Directive and Animal registration directives on intensity of land use (post-model calculation); • Qualitative potentialeffectiveness (0/1/2/3) for biodiversity and landscape (difference in) for 17 SMR measures (Birds, Habitat, Nitrate dir) and 5 GAEC issues national and regional implementations (short names). Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  4. Overview of PT1 tool Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files) CCAT data explorer Computation of absolute and relative differences Short name data CCAT GISviewer Data per scenario Stat. data Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues) Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance CCAT manager CAPRI Miterra Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  5. Compliance and scenarios 50% simulated levels of compliance 75% 50% Compliance gap Voluntary compliance level degree of compliance Full compliance 100% 90% 80% 60% Baseline estimates of compliance(2005) 30% 0% A B C D region regional surface Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  6. Scenarios There are 6 compliance scenarios included in PT1: 0) Baseline compliance in 2005: estimated level, differs per Nuts 2 region (see box 1) 1) 50% gap closure: halve way between 2005 baseline and 100% compliance • 0% compliance: voluntary level, 0% = minimum level, but is often higher • 50% compliance: 50% = minimum level 4) 75% compliance: 75% = minimum level 5) 100% compliance: full compliance Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  7. Estimated degree of compliance of baseline (2005) • Take degree of compliance at member state level from other projects (data available from IEEP and Cross Compliance project) • Estimate upper and lower bound compliance level (based on national estimates • Estimate #farms, #livestock, #hectares at high risk of non-compliance • Spatial distribution of groups of farms (hectares, animals) at high risk over NVZ (relative land use in-/outside) • Calculate regional compliance rates based on 1), 2), 3) and 4). Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  8. Compliance level estimates national level Nitrate Directive (I) Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  9. Identifying high risk farm group? Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  10. Estimating % farms, animals, hectares non-compliant in NVZ Compliance rates: national estimates Average national compliance rate (IEEP, CC projects) Upper bound compliance rate Lower bound compliance rate • Low risk of non-compliance: • - N balance < 170 kg/ha • No slopy land • … NUTS2 • High risk of non-compliance: • - N balance>170 kg/ha • Land slopy • … Total farm population NVZ-NUTS2 • Low risk of non-compliance: • - N balance < 170 kg/ha • No slopy land • … • High risk of non-compliance: • - N balance>170 kg/ha • Land slopy • … Total farm population Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  11. Estimation compliance level results for Nitrate Directive Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  12. Overview of PT1 tool Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files) CCAT data explorer Computation of absolute and relative differences Short name data CCAT GISviewer Data per scenario Stat. data Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues) Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance CCAT manager CAPRI Miterra Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  13. Core models • CAPRI (market response model) • MITERRA EUROPE Extended (simple meta-model) Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  14. CAPRI output used as input in environmental models Changes in management Costs of compliance CAPRI: Market response 1) Changes in cropping shares 2) Change in livestock type/number MITERRA: emissions to: 1) Water 2) Air 3) Soil Cross compliance obligations Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  15. Overview of PT1 tool Indicator data per scenario (GDX-files) CCAT data explorer Computation of absolute and relative differences Short name data CCAT GISviewer Data per scenario Stat. data Biodiversity/landscape: potential effects of 22 measures (17 Birds/Hab/N dir + 5 GAEC issues) Per impact indicator: values of all scenarios Per scenario: Abs. & rel. diff. versus 0 compliance CCAT manager CAPRI Miterra Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  16. Short name data • Per country/region legal implementation texts for all SMR (excl. new MS) and GAECs (all MS) was collected • CIFAS project • Gaps filled • Result: database with fields: • General description of SMR/GAEC (Level 1) • Specific description of measure (Level 2) • Specific description of management obligation (farmer) (Level 3) • Region code (National, Nuts 1, Nuts 2) • Land use type affected • Sensitive area affected • Impact fields (air, water, etc.) • Effectiveness score in relation to landscape and biodiversity (see next presentation) Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

  17. Impact assessment results • Results economic assessments (Markus Kempen) • Results environmental assessments (Jan-Peter Lesschen) • Results biodiversity and landscape assessments (Juan Oñate) After break: • Demo of prototype 1 (Foppe Bouma) Cross Compliance Assessment Tool

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