Tests of Evidence

1. Tests of Evidence evaluating the grounds for arguments

2. Testing Evidence:some examples and applications • Florida orange juice ad • Dick Cheney on WMDs • Porsches and Sex • Misinformation in abstinence only classes • Ted Haggard “cured” of being gay • False advertising by the supplement industry • Happy cows make great cheese? • Deterrent effect of capital punishment

3. Does drinking orange juice prevent cancer? • Are You Drinking Enough? • “The American Cancer Society reports that along with a healthy diet, drinking more Florida orange juice may actually reduce your risk of some cancers”

4. The Florida Department of Citrus donated $1 million to the American Cancer Society for the right to print the ads. Fruit juice has about 8 full teaspoons of sugar (fructose) per one eight-ounce glass. Other fruits and vegetables confer the same benefits, not just oranges, and not Florida Oranges in particular. Marion Nestle, head of New York University’s Department of Nutrition Suppressed evidence? VS.

5. August 2002: Dick Cheney insisted: “Simply stated, there is no doubt that Saddam Hussein now has weapons of mass destruction.” November 2003: Cheney stated, “we believe he has, in fact, reconstituted nuclear weapons.” January 2004: Cheney says the United States hasn't given up on finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, “I think the jury is still out...,” September 2006: On NBC’s Meet the Press, Cheney acknowledged that, “clearly, the intelligence…was wrong.” Distorted evidence or outright deception?

6. Is it easier to“get lucky” in a BMW? • The German magazine “Men’s Car” conducted a survey of 2,253 motorists aged 20-50 in its May 2004 issue • Male BMW drivers said they had sex on average 2.2 times each week • Male Porsche drivers reported they had sex 1.4 times per week. • But the average age and health of the drivers must be taken into account. • Porsches on average cost more than BMWs • Hence, Porsche owners tend to be older, have more money, and have lower libidos.

7. Misleading information in sex education programs • Washington Post, December 2, 2004 • Teens participating in abstinence-only sex education have been taught that: • Condoms fails as much as 31% of the time • HIV can be spread via sweat and tears • touching”a person's genitals "can result in pregnancy”

8. Rev. Ted Haggard: from gay to straight in only three weeks! • Ted Haggard, a former evangelical preacher, had sex with a male prostitute while on meth. • After 3 weeks of intensive conseling at the Pemberton Clinic, Rev. Ted Haggard claims he is now “cured” of being gay. • Haggard claims he is now “completely heterosexual” and he was just “acting out” before.

9. But can a person be “cured” of being gay? • In 1973, the American Psychological Association delistedhomosexuality as a psychiatric disorder in its Diagnostic Symptoms Manual, DSM-IV in 1973. If it's not a disease or disorder, how can you treat it? • Also, if being gay is an “illness” or “psychiatric disorder” wouldn’t it be analogous to alcohol, e.g., once an alcoholic always an alcoholic? • To the extent that one’s sexual orientation is genetic, it can’t be “cured” any more than curly hair can be “cured” by making it straight.

10. Misleading claims in herbal supplement ads • Lose weight fast! Shed pounds while you sleep! • The FTC reports that many marketers use false claims, misleading consumer testimonials, and deceptive before-and-after photos. • Nearly 40 percent of the ads studied by the FTC made at least one claim that was patently false • 55 percent of the ads made at least one claim that was very likely to be false. • Nearly half of the ads claimed that the users could lose weight without diet and exercise.

11. Enzyte: Smiling Bob isn’t so happy now • The makers of Enzyte agreed to pay $2.5 million to consumers to settle a lawsuit involving unsubstantiated claims about the supplement. • “Enzyte won’t make your organ larger, it will make your wallet thinner,” said David Schardt, senior nutritionist at the Center for Science in the Public Interest

12. Does great cheese come from happy cows? • “Great cheese comes from happy cows” claims the TV commercial by the California Milk Advisory Boards • The commercials depict happy, contented cows in idyllic conditions

13. So what kind of cheese comes from unhappy cows? • Dairy cows don’t graze in lush, green meadows. • The cows are kept in feed lots, where they tramp around in cow pies. • Calves are taken from their mothers within 24 hours of birth. • At 2 years old the animals are artificially inseminated to keep them pregnant and producing milk.

14. Does capital punishment actually increase the homicide rate? • States without the death penalty have lower homicide rates than states with the death penalty. • 10 of 12 states without a death penalty have homicide rates below the national average • half of the states with the death penalty have homicide rates above the national average. • The average of murder rate per 100,000 population is higher in death penalty states than in non-death penalty states.

15. Alternate causal explanations • Some states are more violent to begin with, owing to culture, heritage, social norms • States with capital punishment also have higher crime rates for non-capital offenses. • Higher murder rates may have precipitated the adoption of capital punishment • Having the death penalty on the books isn’t the same as enforcing it.

16. Useful sites for testing evidence • http://www.factcheck.org • http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter • http://voices.washingtonpost.com/fact-checker • http://www.snopes.com • http://newsbusters.org (liberal bias) • http://mediamatters.org (liberal bias)