1 / 5

Conference on Quality in Space & Defense Industries CQSDI ‘08 Probabilistic Technology Panel: What Is Probabilistic

Conference on Quality in Space & Defense Industries CQSDI ‘08 Probabilistic Technology Panel: What Is Probabilistic Technology?. Mohammad Khalessi, Ph.D. CEO/President PredictionProbe, Inc. Input X1, X2, …. Output Y1, Y2, …. PROCESS Y = f (X1, X2,…). Step 2. Step 1. Step 3. Step 4.

axelle
Download Presentation

Conference on Quality in Space & Defense Industries CQSDI ‘08 Probabilistic Technology Panel: What Is Probabilistic

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Conference on Quality in Space & Defense IndustriesCQSDI ‘08Probabilistic Technology Panel:What Is Probabilistic Technology? Mohammad Khalessi, Ph.D. CEO/President PredictionProbe, Inc.

  2. Input X1, X2, …. Output Y1, Y2, … PROCESS Y = f (X1, X2,…) Step 2 Step 1 Step 3 Step 4 Y1, Y1, … Utilizes probability lawto construct statistical models for Input Variables l l l Utilizes physics laws, process rules, or empirical modeling techniques to construct process/output models l l l Probabilistic Technology Probabilistic Technology is a set of advanced predictive methods that allow for integration of uncertainties into process models and evaluation of the effects  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Performance level = C1 Performance level = C2 • 3. Process Sensitivity Measures • Key process variables & uncertainties • Guidelines to develop test plans • Guidelines for inspection & repair planning • Guidelines to develop improvement plans • Guidelines to develop control plans • Guidelines to develop monitoring plans • Many more • 1. Most-Probable-Points • Safety control systems • Certification tests • Reliability demonstration tests • Critical combination of parameters • Most likely failure points • Many more • 2. Probability Information • Reliability, risks, failure prob. • Critical failure modes ID • Performance range • Most-likely performance value • Safety-factor calibration • Many more Probabilistic Technology Optimizes Design, Performance, Number of Tests and More Probabilistic Technology provides 3 metrics to quantitatively evaluate design early in the decision process when no data is available  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Press COV = 10% Axial Load COV=5% Failure Prob. = 1.4% Press COV = 5% Axial Load COV=20% Failure Prob. = 3.5% Press COV = 5% Axial Load COV=5% Failure Prob. = 0.7% Finite element model of a fuel tank Probabilistic Technology Allows for Safer and Lighter Designs Uncertaintiessignificantly impact the prediction accuracy. Probabilistic Technology can accurately identify the failure location and the magnitude of failure probability.  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Probabilistic Technology Eliminates or Minimizes Costly Changes  2007, PredictionProbe, Inc. All rights reserved.

More Related