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Unaccounted emissions from biofuels Alex Kaat, UNFCCC SBSTA event June 9 2011

Unaccounted emissions from biofuels Alex Kaat, UNFCCC SBSTA event June 9 2011. What makes biofuels attractive…. UNFCCC as driving force: No accounting for combustion No mandatory accounting LULUCF An.1 No accounting (indirect) LUC non An. 1 Biofuel use: a result of climate policies

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Unaccounted emissions from biofuels Alex Kaat, UNFCCC SBSTA event June 9 2011

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  1. Unaccounted emissions from biofuels Alex Kaat, UNFCCC SBSTA event June 9 2011

  2. What makes biofuels attractive… UNFCCC as driving force: • No accounting for combustion • No mandatory accounting LULUCF An.1 • No accounting (indirect) LUC non An. 1 Biofuel use: a result of • climate policies • that have ignored land use emissions

  3. Land use under different scenarios • Reference pathway (no serious climate policy) Adapted from: M Wise et al. Science May 2009;324:1183-86

  4. Land use under different scenarios • CO2 emission target of 450 ppm • Policies address fossil andterrestrial emissions. Adapted from: M Wise et al. Science May 2009;324:1183-86

  5. Land use under different scenarios • Modeled scenario (theoretical). • CO2 emission target of 450 ppm • Policies address fossil but notterrestrial emissions. Adapted from: M Wise et al. Science May 2009;324:1183-86

  6. Land use emissions: very substantial Adapted from: J. Fargione et al. Science February 2008; 319: 1235-1238 

  7. Indirect land use change: even worse CO2 payback time of total soybean mix due to expansion (Brazil): Direct (35 years) + Indirect (211 years) = 246 years Adapted from: Lapola D M et al. PNAS 2010;107:3388-3393

  8. WI’s concern: widespread use peat soils Energy yield and emission factor of typical biomass fuel crops on peatsoil, compared to fossil fuels. Couwenberg 2007. IMCG-newsletter 2007-3 p.12-15

  9. Case: EU aims to meet GHG reduction • Bio-energy: main climate strategy EU • Effort to prevent extremes in land use emissions - Hope REDD will solve parts of it…- ILUC?

  10. Environmental implications 2020 Studies commissioned by EU DG-Trade: • Large imports from non-Annex 1 in 202050% ethanol, 41% diesel When also accounting ILUC: • Target higher than 5,6%: no GHG benefits • No fuel meets 50% reduction target • with ILUC 81-167% worse than fossil fuels 56 mln tonnes extra CO2 (IEEP 2010)

  11. EU- just small at global scale IEA BLUE Map Scenario, 50% reduction energy-related CO2 emissions from 2005

  12. Conclusions • Biofuel expansion largely result of climate policies • Only limited expansion possible without negative environmental impacts • Not accounting LULUCF is disastrous.

  13. What to do: option 1 • Biofuel combustion remains zero emission • But all (land-use) emissions accounted • also non annex I; also LUC and ILUC Negative sides: • Complicated • Complete new methodology; why only for biofuels?

  14. What to do: Option 2 • Biofuel combustion accounted; like fossil • Sequestration in feed stocks accounted (thus rewarded). • In the longer term, maybe the best system Negative side: • Demands global accounting system • Why only for biofuels?

  15. Options 3 • No accounting combustion of bio-energy • Mandatory LULUCF accounting (all activities) • Standards to ban biofuels with huge LUC, ILUC and other emissions in non-Annex 1 • Possibly best for this moment… Negative side: • Non-Annex 1 not accounted, only extremes excluded • Incentive to import from non-Annex 1 • Dependent on supply-chain certification system

  16. Thank you Alex Kaat Wetlands International Alex.kaat@wetlands.org

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