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Canberra – 100 years of population change

Canberra – 100 years of population change. Dr Alison Taylor ACT Demographer. ADSRI and APA seminar Friday 22 nd March 2013. Outline. Early history and establishment The first half century and phases of early growth Growth in the last 30 years and components of change

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Canberra – 100 years of population change

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  1. Canberra – 100 years of population change Dr Alison Taylor ACT Demographer ADSRI and APA seminar Friday 22nd March 2013

  2. Outline • Early history and establishment • The first half century and phases of early growth • Growth in the last 30 years and components of change • How does Canberra compare?

  3. When did “Canberra” make the Year Book? • In 1911 – article on “The Commonwealth Seat of Government” • Selection of site (finalised in 1909) • Administration and organisation of services • Workmen, their families and dependents in a camp at Acton • Establishment of Military College at Duntroon in 1910 (150 cadets and instructors) • In 1912 – a feature article on the Federal Capital City (with maps and designs for layout)

  4. Population at 1911 Census was 1,714 people • 992 males and 722 females • Also 10 full blood Aboriginals, 8 half caste Aboriginals and 7 people of Asiatic descent • Under 15 years - 32.2% (18.6% at 2011) • Aged 15-64 years 63.1% (70.7%) • 65 years and over 4.8% (10.7%) King O’Malley drives the first survey peg at Canberra, 20 February 1913

  5. Canberra 1912by William Lister

  6. Canberra 1912-13by William Lister

  7. Canberra 1913by Penleigh Boyd

  8. Early stages of population growthAustralian Capital Territory as at 30 June each year Retrenchments due to the Great Depression Public servants begin to move in Establishment, public buildings and services Source: ABS, 2008 Australian Historical Statistics, Catalogue Number 3105.0.65.001 and ABS, 2012 Australian Demographic Statistics, Catalogue Number 3101.0

  9. Milestones of growthShops and schools Giles Street Eastlake (now Kingston) in 1928 Telopea Park school in 1926 First students at Telopea Park school

  10. Milestones of growthBuilding Civic shops

  11. Milestones of growthBuilding and opening of Parliament House

  12. Miss Canberra comes out (London cartoon)

  13. Milestones of growthAinslie: the first suburb Female public servants were accommodated at Gorman House, the first hostel built at Ainslie (now Braddon) in 1925. Ainslie and Braddon from Mt Ainslie (showing newly planted trees) Lister Crescent Ainslie

  14. Milestones of growthAinslie: houses are constructed

  15. Ainslie’s growth • From 2,626 people in 1947 to 6,196 people 14 years later • In 1961 – 1,555 occupied dwellings and 75 unoccupied (mostly government housing) Source: ABS, Census of the Commonwealth of Australia, 1961 Catalogue Number 2170.0

  16. Early ACT Census counts Source: ABS, Census of the Commonwealth of Australia, 1961 Catalogue Number 2170.0

  17. Source: ABS, Census of the Commonwealth of Australia, 1961 Catalogue Number 2170.0

  18. Phases of natural growth Fertility rates 1947 – 4.668 1954 – 3.328 1961 – 3.872 1966 – 3.038 1971 – 2.908 2011 – 1.763 Source: ABS, 2008 Australian Historical Statistics, Catalogue Number 3105.0.65.001 and ABS, 2012 Australian Demographic Statistics, Catalogue Number 3101.0

  19. Migration underscored growth Source: ABS, 2008 Australian Historical Statistics, Catalogue Number 3105.0.65.001 Note: net interstate and net overseas migration at 31 December

  20. Growth increased after WWII Source: ABS, 2008 Australian Historical Statistics, Catalogue Number 3105.0.65.001

  21. ACT growth trends last 30 years • Recent growth (to June 2012) • Total population passed 370,000 (374,658) • Growth rate eased to 1.88% • Annual increase 6,900 people • 10 year average substantially above that of the ‘90s, but below that of the ‘80s • Components of growth • Natural increase stable (births up but so are deaths) • Net interstate migration down last year but variable • Net overseas migration currently high

  22. ACT likely to pass 400,000 in next few years Source: ABS, Cat No 3105.0.65.001 and 3101.0 and estimates p-preliminary, r-revised, est-estimate, Years ending 30 June

  23. Growth, then cutbacks, then growth again Source: ABS, Cat No 3105.0.65.001 and 3101.0 p-preliminary, r-revised, Years ending 30 June

  24. Growth in last 5 years highest in past 30 Average annual growth last 5 years (2008-2012) was 6,618 people

  25. Births have increased but so have deaths

  26. Net interstate migration, ACT, 1982-2012 Source: ABS, Cat No 3105.0.65.001 and 3101.0, Years ending 30 June

  27. NOM currently high Source: ABS, Cat No 3105.0.65.001 and 3101.0, Years ending 30 June

  28. Interstate movement – the most variable component Source: ABS, Cat No 3105.0.65.001 and 3101.0 Years ending 30 June

  29. Population doubled from 151,000 in 1971 to 367,000 in 2011

  30. Smaller proportion aged under 30 and larger proportion older

  31. How does Canberra compare? • Highest proportion employed (67.4% - 59.5% for all capital cities) and equal lowest share unemployed (2.5% - 3.4%) • Highest share of workers in the public sector (43.3% - 15.6%) • One-third of workers worked in the national government (34.3% - 4.7%) and one-third (32.7%) worked in Public Administration and Safety (7.0%) • One-quarter of residents (24.1%) were high income earners (compared with 14.3%) • Highest proportion of population that were students (27.5% - 24.9%) • Second highest proportion of residents that were Australian citizens (87.9% - 83.0%) after Hobart (90.1%) • Has higher share of recent arrivals (2007-11) arriving 2009-11 (62.6% - 54.3)

  32. Canberra and Washington Source: ABS, 2011 Census and 3101.0, US Census Bureau: State and County QuickFacts

  33. Drivers of Canberra’s growthPost-selection of site as capital • City-building activities including public buildings, new suburbs and infrastructure • Jobs in construction or government (with government housing) – including forced re-locations • A place of opportunity • Self-generated growth including an increasing services sector • Downturns caused by retrenchments • Increased economic diversity and strengthening regional linkages as a higher order functional service centre • Unique status as the ‘bush capital’ • Australia’s largest inland city

  34. 100 years of population change • “The shape of a city changes faster, alas, than the desires of the human heart” Charles Baudelaire • “A great city is not to be confounded with a populous one” Aristotle • This city is what it is because our citizens are what they are” Plato

  35. What does the second century hold for Canberra?

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