Geospatial Analysis of the Alliance of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) + 3

1. Geospatial Analysis of the Alliance of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) + 3 Jim Epley Stan Grossman Meredith Hollowell David Miller Thomas Walker Date: 03 March 2011 Event: GGS 684 Assignment No . 2

2. Agenda • GEOINT • Background • Challenges & Opportunities • Conflict Between the Koreas • China as a Global Competitor • China as a Regional Superpower • Instability in Indonesia, Thailand, & Philippines • Summary • Questions

3. GEOINT

4. GEOINT – Definition • “The term “geospatial intelligence” means- “the exploitation and analysis of imagery and geospatial information to describe, assess, and visually depict physical features and geographically referenced activities on the Earth. GEOINT consists of imagery, imagery intelligence, and geospatial information.” • Title 10 U.S. Code §467 “The term GEOINT was created to describe and encompass both the standard and the advanced (integrated) capabilities of imagery, imagery intelligence and geospatial information. The full power of GEOINT comes from the integration and analysis of all three capabilities …” Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) Doctrine Publication 1-0 September 2006

5. Specialized GEOINT Characteristics • Incorporates intelligence analysis into all aspects • Uses multiple types of sensors and advanced sensor technology • Combines multiple types of geospatial data • Uses intelligence and data from other INTs to provide context • Adds more dimensions to standard geospatial products • 3rd Dimension: provides the capability to visualize in three dimensions (3D) • 4th Dimension: integrates the element of time and movement (allowing for realistic motion to create dynamic and interactive visual products) Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) Doctrine Publication 1-0 September 2006

6. GEOINT Structured Analysis Process Brainstorming, Quality of Information Check, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH), Devil’s Advocacy Brainstorming, Key Assumption Check, Quality of Information Check, Red Team Brainstorming, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Brainstorming Bacastow, T.S. and Bellafiore, D.J. (2008-2010)

7. Background

8. BACKGROUND: ASEAN + 3 Brunei Darussalam Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar (Burma) Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam China South Korea Japan

9. ASEAN Environment Geography Land Cover Climate

10. ASEAN Population Growth % Growth 1990-2008 Average Annual Population Growth

11. ASEAN Energy Trends

12. Food Trends Prices ↓ Availability ↑

13. Internet – 8 of Top-10 Users

14. Natural Resources

15. Agriculture

16. Manufacturing Resources

17. Economic Reality of the Region • Dominated by China • Japan – economic powerhouse, but aging ASEAN Trade Balance 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ImportsExports Balance

18. Regional Superpower – Chinese Military

19. Geopolitical Relations • Governance • Dictatorial → Communistic → Full Democracy • Historical Animosities • China – Vietnam • China – Taiwan • Japan – Korea • Economic Animosities • Spratly Islands (Vietnam, China, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei Darussalam) • US Relations • Contentious → Ambivalent → Ally • Economic • Militarily

20. Challenges & opportunities

21. Pressure Points • Conflict between the Koreas • China as a global competitor • China as a regional superpower • Instability in Indonesia, Thailand,and Philippines

22. Conflict between the Koreas

23. North Korea threatens the stability of Northeast Asia North Korea will not unify with South Korea by 2025, and its WMDs will continue to be a threat. • China maintains North Korea as a buffer state. • North Korean aggressive military actions continue. • North Korea increases its nuclear weapons stockpile. • North Korea develops longer-range ballistic missiles. • South Korea restarts its nuclear weapons program. • Japan uses technology to counter North Korea. • Japan and South Korea form a security alliance. • U.S. military presence recedes from the region.

24. Players in the North Korean Challenge • North Korea diverts more money to weapons development and uses military threats to get food for its desperate population. Dependence on China increases due to UN economic sanctions. • China props up North Korea, fearing a loss of a strategic buffer and a flood of North Korean refugees across the Chinese border. • South Korea, sensing a decline in U.S. resolve, confronts North Korean military provocations with new weapons programs, including nuclear weapons. South Korea increasingly turns to Japan for political and military support. • Japan, threatened by North Korea’s missiles and nuclear weapons, pours resources into missile defense, with land, sea, and space systems. It maintains a regional lead in space technology.

25. Monitoring North Korea Economic elements • Crop health and productivity • Rate of deforestation and soil erosion • Refugee movement due to famine • Effect of UN sanctions on economy • Chinese support in circumventing sanctions Military elements • Ballistic missile launches • Nuclear weapons development • Pollution caused by banned military activities • Military attacks against South Korea or others

26. China as a global competitor

27. China - Global Investments • Time Required to start a business: 35 days • Agricultural Products: rice, wheat, potatoes, corn, peanuts, tea, millet, barley, apples, cotton, oilseed, pork, fish- only 10% of land is suitable for cultivation – 329 Million Chinese Farmers • Industry: iron, steel, coal, textiles • Trade and Investment - Exports: $1,220,000,000,000.00 • GDP: $2,668,071,000,000.00 • Gross National Income: $1,130,000,000,000.00 • Second larges t producer of manufacturing output http://blogs.reuters.com/india-expertzone/2011/02/07/chinas-investment-overseas-in-2010/

28. China- Information Exchange http://www.digitaleastasia.com/2010/01/18/chinas-internet-population-approaches-400-million/ -Mobile Internet users increased by more than 100% since the end of 2008 to reach a total of 233 million, -8% of users now access the Internet only through their mobile phones, -Rural Internet users increased 26.3% year-over-year to 106.8 million at the end of 2009, -The use of the Internet for travel reservations, stock trading and e-banking grew by 77.9%, 67% and 62.3% respectively. http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/global/mobile-internet-more-popular-in-china-than-in-u-s/ January 2011: Number of Phones = 853,400,000 (62.8%)

29. China- Military Development China’s National Defense in 2006 published by, The Information Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China. “The Army is speeding up the upgrading and informationization of its active main battle equipment to build a new type of ground combat force which is lean, combined, agile and multi-functional.” ARMYTotal Land-Based Weapons: 31,300 Tanks: 8,200 [2004] Armored Personnel Carriers: 5,000 [2004] Towed Artillery: 14,000 [2004] Self-Propelled Guns: 1,700 [2004] Multiple Rocket Launch Systems: 2,400 [2004] Mortars: 16,000 [2001] Anti-Tank Guided Weapons: 6,500 [2004] Anti-Aircraft Weapons: 7,700 [2004] NAVYTotal Navy Ships: 760 Merchant Marine Strength: 1,822 [2008] Major Ports and Harbors: 8 Aircraft Carriers: 1 [2010] Destroyers: 21 [2004] Submarines: 68 [2004] Frigates: 42 [2004] Patrol & Coastal Craft: 368 [2004] Mine Warfare Craft: 39 [2004] Amphibious Craft: 121 [2004] AIR FORCETotal Aircraft: 1,900 [2004] Helicopters: 491 [2004] Serviceable Airports: 467 [2007] Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Most_powerful_military_in_the_world#ixzz1FCiFKDjp http://www.japanprobe.com/2010/11/28/should-japan-fear-chinas-military-build-up/

30. China- Population Distribution • Zhaoqing : 3.9m • Frosham: 5.4 m • Guangzhou: 11.7m • Dongguan: 6.4m • Jiangmen: 3.8m • Zhongshan: 2.4m • Zhuhai: 1.5m • Shenzhen: 8.9m • Huizhou: 3.9m http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ch&v=24 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-03/26/content_6565723.htm

31. China as regional superpower

32. China - Pivotal to ASEAN Region’s Maritime Commerce • China is poised to have more impact on the world over the next 20 years than any other country. • Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale for naval buildups and modernization efforts, such as China’s and India’s development of blue-water naval capabilities. • Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to: • Increased tensions, • Rivalries, and • Counterbalancing moves • Will also create opportunities for multinational cooperation in protecting critical sea lanes. • In particular, protection/control of the South China Sea basin is a maritime region which is vital to ASEAN +3 Commerce.

33. China- Political Development Model for Client States • Russia, China and India have linked their national security to increased state control of and access to energy resources and markets through their state-owned energy firms. • China, especially, has emerged as a new financial heavyweight, claiming $2,000,000,000,000 (USD) in foreign exchange reserves in 2008. • China offers an alternative model for political development in addition to demonstrating a different economic pathway. • This model may prove attractive to under-performing authoritarian regimes, in addition to weak democracies frustrated by years of economic underperformance. • State capitalism is the loose term used to describe a system of economic management that gives a prominent role to the state. • Other rising powers (in ASEAN +3): South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore, also used state capitalism to develop their economies. • China’s growing middle class increases the chances (of democracy) but does not make such a development inevitable.

34. Essential Elements of Information • Maritime Commerce • Ship Nationality • Type of Ships • Ports of Call • Type of Cargo • Naval/Coast Guard • Shipping Routes • Environment • Client States • National Identity • Shipyards • Ports/Cargo Facilities • Raw Materials/Products • Strength of Military • Transportation Systems Rail, Waterways, Highways, Airfields • Disaster Preparedness • Financial System • Health of Economy • Population Centers • Population Demographics • Commercial Industries Commonality Imagery Sources will Include: Visible, Infrared, Panchromatic, Hyper spectral, Multispectral, Thermal, Aerial Vector /Map Other GeoINT will include: SAR, LiDAR, DTED, Demographics Mulit-INT will include: HUMINT, SIGINT, MASINT,

35. Instability in Indonesia, thailand & Philippines

36. The growth of terrorist organizations in the region threatens stability and economic growth • Abu Sayyaf (AS) • Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) • Communist New People’s Army (NPA) • Moro National Liberation Front • Active Terrorist Organizations: • Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) • Tanzim Qaedat al-Jihad (Malay Archipelego) INDONESIA Key Factors: • Assassination attempt on Indonesian President • 2009 bombings of 2 hotels in Jakarta • Targeting foreigners and government entities THE PHILIPPINES Key Factors: • Kidnappings of foreign workers • December 2009 prison break of 30 AS and MILF members • Election-related violence in 2010 in Mindinao (57 killed) • 500+ areas identified as hotspots for violence • SOUTHERN THAILAND • Key Factors: • Muslim separatist violence (300 killed in 2009) • Thai gov’t unwilling to recognize insurgency • Insurgent use of IEDs • Estimated 3,600 killed since 2004 (no reported foreigners)

37. Essential Elements of Information • Monitor movement in and out of borders • porous maritime borders in The Philippines and Indonesia • Political Gauges • Election years • Perception of government legitimacy and corruption • Media freedom and media content • Economic Gauges • Black Market Trading • Financial Stability • Poverty Level • Quality of Life

38. summary

39. Summary • GEOINT overview • ASEAN regionally robust, resource rich • Four significant concerns to monitor • Koreas • China globally • China regionally • Regional political instability • Next steps • Further develop EEIs • Construct collection Strategy

40. GGS 684 Assignment No. 2 Group DaVinci