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Groningen: a province with two faces

Groningen: a province with two faces. Huub Hanssen Province Groningen. Provinces Groningen en Drenthe, seperated in six regions. Figure Shrinkage and growth in number of inhabitants, 2005-2030. Figure Shrinkage and growth in number of households,2005-2030.

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Groningen: a province with two faces

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  1. Groningen: a province with two faces Huub Hanssen Province Groningen

  2. Provinces Groningen en Drenthe, seperated in six regions

  3. Figure Shrinkage and growth in number of inhabitants, 2005-2030

  4. Figure Shrinkage and growth in number of households,2005-2030

  5. The region East-Groningen/Delfzijl is less prosperous then the region Groningen-Assen: • Less economic growth • More unemployment, less workforce participation end less income • Less level of education • Less house prices • Shrinkage of population in stead of growth • Shrinkage of the basis of level of facilities (for exempal: education-facilities)

  6. The divide has a structural nature: • The divide in population growth, employment, unemployment, workforce participation, income and level of education has become more defined over the past decade • The divide will become more defined in the future

  7. Economic growth to date and in the future • The employment structure in the Groningen-Assen region is substantially stronger than in the East-Groningen/Delfzijl region • In the future employment will be more concentrated in the Groningen-Assen region.

  8. Figure Employment growth per municipality,1996-2006

  9. Figure Unemployment per municipality, 2005

  10. Living conditions in shrinking rural areas continue to lag behind • Increasing vacancy rates on the housing market • Concentration of groups with social problems • Quality of living enviroment is decreasing • In addition: shrinkage of the basis of level of facilities (For example: education facilities)

  11. Figuur Ontwikkeling basisschoolbevolking per postcodegebied (2005-2030)

  12. The housing market in the future in the regions Delfzijl/Oost-Groningen • Growth of houshold 2007-2014: 1200 • Building-plans of municipalities 2007-2014: 11300 Conclusions: • Great danger for growth of vacancy (max. 10.000; 11% of total housing stock) • A regional implementation strategie is neccesary, with priority for restructurering of the housing market.

  13. The influence of spatial policy Calculations with the Primos-model shows that the transfer of the building production of 9000 homes from Groningen-Assen to the Delfzijl/East Groningen regions wil result in: • significant migration losses (9000 persons) from Groningen-Assen to these regions; • 4500 homes of extra vacancy on the short therm on top of the earlier predicted vacancy of 10.000 • 9000 of extra vacancy on the long therm once there is sufficient supply in the region Groningen-Assen (max. 19000 in total; 21% of total housing stock)

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