Responding to climate change - challenges, responsibilities, opportunities

1. Responding to climate change -challenges, responsibilities, opportunities • Mid West Science Forum 13 August 2008 Dr Ray Wills CEO, WA Sustainable Energy Association Future Smart Strategies School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia

2. Greenhouse and global warming • Greenhouse theory • Basis first proposed by in 1824 • Greenhouse = earth’s “blanket” - average temperature about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C • Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s • UN and IMO lead debate late 1979 • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change formed 1988 • Rio 1992, Kyoto 1997 … • Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level. • The enhanced greenhouse effect is not hypothesis- it is empirically and theoretically well-established.

3. artwork "Hot with a chance of a late storm" by The Glue Society. Evidence of global warming artwork "Hot with a chance of a late storm" by The Glue Society.

4. Instrumental record - temperature

6. About WA • Annual inflow to Perth dams dropped from 338 GL to 114 GL • Source: Water Corporation 2007.

7. About WA • A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about 150 km south. A regional temperature change of 2 °C likely to have a serious impact on most life forms, and on most ecosystems and agricultural areas. Changes by 2040

8. About WA • Climate is key determinant for your garden - changes in climate will impact on what will grow.

9. About WA • Climate is key determinant of agriculture - changes in climate will impact on crops and livestock. • Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst, shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates, lower crop quality, changes in soil temperatures. • Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted • Northern wheatbelt likely to disappear, south reduced. • Wipes out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion. • Climate is a key influence in grape selection. • Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop. • WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, about 25% of wine in super-premium and ultra-premium categories.

10. Evidence of global warming

11. Sea level changes

12. Sea level changes Mandurah at 1m sea level rise Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association

13. Global changes http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf

15. Responding to climate change • The threat of dangerous climate change is not just an environmental issue - underscores the need to build a sustainable economy. • An effective response will change the way we use energy and in so doing, future proof our economy. • Action by government, business and the community must put in place measures that • reduce unnecessary use; • promote energy efficiency across life cycles; • reduce reliance on increasingly expensive traditional fuels; • produce energy through renewable generation; and • offset remaining emissions.

16. Responding to climate change ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007

17. Responding to climate change ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007

18. Economic risk of change Climate Risk Sector Level Physical Risk Political / Regulatory Supply Chain Company Level Staff Litigation Reputation / Brand Products / Technology Individual Level

19. Renewable energy generation • Spatial relationships • Resource distribution - wind, wave, solar, geothermal • Biomass productivity

20. Wind • Spatial relationships

21. Renewable energy in Western Australia • Solar Energy - Photovoltaics (PV) • Grid-connected and stand alone power systems for remote telecommunications infrastructure and water pumping systems. PV modules also in many niche applications, including emergency telephones, street and other outdoor lighting, and marine navigation buoys.

22. Solar thermal • Low-Temperature Collectors • Used for space/water heating • Heat swimming pools • Industrial - salt production in salt farms! • Medium-Temperature Collectors • Hot water needed for residential and commercial use • High-Temperature Collectors: Concentrated solar power • Heat storage • Heat storage - transfer the heat to a substance (molten salt, silicon phase change products, pressurized steam) which can hold the heat with a high energy density.

23. Carbon accounting • Carbon asset register • Measure, monitor, audit, verify • Carbon accumulation. • Transparency and security.

24. Responding to climate change • Fossil fuel prices will continue to push up inflation, but renewable energy will continue to shine on us, to wash up on our shores, and to blow past us without additional cost. • Australia is the Middle East of renewable energy and we are failing to harvest the energy bonanza for the benefit of the Australian economy and especially for Australia’s export industries.

25. Responding to climate change • Responding to climate change will create opportunities, establish new businesses, and create new jobs. • Renewable energy generation is generally more labour intensive, and more broadly distributed across regions. • With a better employment factor, a diversity of renewable energy projects can lead to growth of local communities in rural WA. • Any economic analysis must fully assess the benefits to the community – that’s a part of sustainability.

26. Responding to climate change • 2 Million every 5 minutes

28. WA SEA – WA’s peak business body for the sustainable energy industries • WA SEA Members - the business part of the solution to climate change - developing and adopting technologies and services that minimise energy use through sustainable energy practices and maximising energy use from sustainable sources.

29. The inconvenient truth - time has run out for solutions that are simply convenient. Dr Ray Wills WA Sustainable Energy Association ceo@wasea.com.au Future Smart Strategies rwills@futuresmart.com.au School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia rwills@segs.uwa.edu.au