GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: Challenges & Opportunities for Transportation

1. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: Challenges & Opportunities for Transportation Cynthia J. Burbank National Planning and Environment Practice Leader Parsons Brinckerhoff East West Gateway Council Air Quality Advisory Council Meeting December 11, 2008 Disclaimer: Much of the information presented is based on PB work for NCHRP 20-24(59). Work is in progress and is not a NCHRP report nor does it represent the panel’s views. The NCHRP work is intended to inform AASHTO members' policy-development discussions and does not include making recommendations on matters of policy.

2. Climate Change is Real and Poses Major Risks • “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…” -- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • “An overwhelming body of scientific evidence paints a clear picture: climate change is happening, it is caused in large part by human activity, and it will have many serious and potentially damaging effects in the decades ahead.” -- Pew Center on Climate Change • But public awareness and commitment in the U.S. doesn’t yet reflect the risks

3. GHG Targets Are Daunting

4. Transportation is 28% of U.S. GHG – and Rising

5. U. S. Transportation Carbon Emissions by Mode, 2003 (Million metric tons CO2) Pipeline/Other, 47 Internat'l./Bunker, 84 Waterborne, 58 Rail, 43 Air, 171 Light Vehicles, 1113 Heavy Vehicles, 350 Highway Vehicles = 78% of Transportation CO2 Emissions

6. Transportation GHG Reduction is a Four-legged Stool The 3-legged stool: • Vehicles • Fuels • VMT The 4th leg: • Vehicle/System Operations

7. Light Duty Vehicles & Fuels • 50% cut in GHG/mile is feasible by 2030 from conventional technologies and biofuels • Almost complete decarbonization of transport vehicles/fuels by 2050 is a “realistic ambition,” with advanced technology/fuels • Electric & hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are promising – but must overcome many technology and economic issues • The need for technological improvement is urgent

8. Worldwide Car Ownership Rising Dramatically

9. Vehicle “Decarbonization” is Essential “In the long term, carbon free road transport fuel is the only way to achieve an 80-90% reduction in emissions, essentially “decarbonization.” --The King Review for the U.K. Government, byProfessor Julia King, Vice-Chancellor of Aston University and former Director of Advanced Engineering at Rolls-Royce plc, March 2008

10. Vehicle “Decarbonization” is Necessary “[I]n the period beyond 2100, total GHG emissions will have to be just 20% of current levels. It is impossible to imagine this without decarbonization of the transport sector.” • -- Sir Nicholas Stern, Stern Review to the U.K. Government, 2007

11. VMT Matters Slowing U.S. VMT growth to 1% annually – or less -- may be necessary to meet GHG targets

12. Vehicle/System OperationsAlso Matter 10-20% LDV GHG reduction potential by: • Managing speed (40-50 MPH is optimal; speed limits/enforcement could reduce road fuel use 2-4%) • Reducing congestion and accel-decel • Reducing poor signal timing (could reduce 1.315 MMT CO2/yr) • Reducing car and truck idling • Optimizing tire inflation • Encouraging “eco driving”

13. Carbon Tax or Federal Cap & Trade Legislation Can Achieve Big GHG Reductions S.2191 (Lieberman-Warner Cap & Trade): • Imposes a declining cap on GHG for power plants, oil importers and refiners, industrial sources • Reduces U.S. GHG 66% below 2005 levels by 2050 • Has lower % effect on transportation GHG • Increases energy prices -- gas prices $1.40 higher by 2050 • Allocates $171 billion to transit over 38 years • Lowers U.S. GDP 0.9-3.8% in 2050

14. Prices Are Key to GHG Reduction • Higher energy prices are essential to promote energy conservation and new technologies in all sectors • In transport, pricing can be powerful: - PAYD Insurance - Mileage fees - Parking pricing - Congestion pricing - Vehicle “feebates”

15. What About Land Use? According to “Growing Cooler“ report by ULI/CCAP: “It is realistic to assume a 30 percent cut in VMT with compact development.” “… smart growth could …reduce total transportation-related CO2 emissions from current trends by 7 to 10 percent as of 2050.” “Growing Cooler” assumes: • 67% of development in place in 2050 is new or rehab • 60-90% of that development is “smart growth” (equivalent to 15 housing units per acre) Is this realistic? What will it take? Who should lead?

16. Transit Helps – But is Small in Percentage Potential • Transit serves 1% of PMT and 0% freight in the U.S. • APTA: Transit reduced GHG by 6.9 MMT in 2005 • This is 1/3 of 1% of U.S. transportation GHG • European Ministers of Transport caution: “Modal shift policies are usually weak in terms of the quantity of CO2 abated …. Modal shift measures can be effective when well targeted, particularly when integrated with demand management measures. They can not, however, form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy…..” • Serves other goals – and is seen as key to land use changes

17. Many States Are DevelopingAggressive Climate Action Plans

18. State Climate Plans –Transportation Elements Are All Over the Map

19. How Much Should We Pay Per Ton of GHG Reduction? $17 to $44/ton of GHG = cost of climate damages, 2007 (3% discount rate)* Compare to: $80/ton savings for LDV fuel economy standards** $20/ton savings for cellulosic biofuels** $30-50/ton cost for signal optimization*** $100-800/ton cost for transit service improvements*** * EPA study, 2008 ** McKinsey & Company study, 2007 *** WASHCOG estimate, 2008

20. Technology Yields Huge GHG Reductions at up to $50/Ton ($50/ton of GHG = $0.50/gallon of gasoline) -- McKinsey & Company

21. No Silver Bullet – Instead We Need Silver Buckshot - David Greene and Andreas Schaefer, for Pew Center on Climate Change

22. European Council of Ministers of Transport (2006) • “The most effective measures available include fuel taxes, vehicle and component standards, differentiated vehicle taxation, support for eco-driving and incentives for more efficient logistic organization, including point of use pricing for roads. “ • “More integrated transport and spatial planning policies might contain demand for motorized transport.” • Mode shifts … cannot … form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy and the prominence given to modal shift policies is at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much lower abatement levels than measures focusing on fuel efficiency.” • “Ultimately higher cost energy sources …. will be required if there are to be further cuts in transport sector CO2 emissions.”

23. Climate Adaptation Is as Important as GHG Reduction • “Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes… very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land subsidence.” • “The impacts …. will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems.” -- TRB Special Report, March 2008

24. CONCLUSIONS • Many strategies are needed to reduce surface transport GHG: • Adopt pricing measures to reward conservation and tech innovation • Maximize energy efficiency of current vehicles (50 MPG) • Invest in tech breakthroughs for decarbonized vehicles • Push “eco driving” and congestion/speed management • Implement more efficient land use • Maximize and reward carpools & vanpools • Increase biking, walking, transit use, trip chaining, telecommuting • $50/ton of GHG should be the cost ceiling for the near term (but how can transportation agencies fund even this?) • Adapting transportation infrastructure to climate impacts is important and will be difficult and costly