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The NERC Increasing resilience to Natural Hazards Programme John Rees

The NERC Increasing resilience to Natural Hazards Programme John Rees. Natural Hazard Challenges. Theme drivers. Natural hazards and their consequences need to be forecast effectively.

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The NERC Increasing resilience to Natural Hazards Programme John Rees

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  1. The NERC Increasing resilience to Natural Hazards Programme John Rees

  2. Natural Hazard Challenges

  3. Theme drivers Natural hazards and their consequences need to be forecast effectively. The communication of scientific knowledge and understanding of natural hazards needs to be much improved. Much more emphasis and financial resources need to be put into mitigationstrategies.

  4. . Focus on resilience Christchurch0 dead Haiti92,000 - 316,000 dead 2010 Magnitude 7.0 earthquakes

  5. Views of ‘Stakeholders’ • ICSU • UN-ISDR • IRDR • Wellcome • AGU • GEM • LWEC • GSA • Hyogo Framework • Belmont Forum • …. And others Joint NERC & ESRC Programme

  6. Increasing resilience through multi-hazard assessment of earthquake-prone and volcanic regions

  7. Multi-hazardapproach Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides

  8. Drive towards mitigation Three Workpackages Spatial strain distribution analysis to inform earthquake hazards Forecasting the timing of volcanic hazards Multi-hazard risk assessment Tehran Pop. 12,000,000 Istanbul Pop. 12,800,000 And many others….

  9. Focus on: Spatial patterns of inter-seismic strain rates Fault interactions Migration of seismic activity Will allow: rapid regional assessments of future risk to support prioritization of disaster mitigation measures through planning. Identification of changing hazard patterns based upon near real-time assessment of stress on faults and fault populations. Will encourage: Development of geodetic and remote sensing methods Geology, Geomorphology and palaeoseismic studies The great majority of the funding will be on physical process research .WP-1 Increasing spatial and temporalresolution

  10. .WP-2 Montserrat Increasing temporal and spatial resolution

  11. Progress Theme Leader NERC Commissioning team TAP SISB Council Call 1 SelectAdvisoryGroup AdvisoryGroup NOTE: Call 2 will be open to all consortia. Undertaking a scoping study is not a pre-condition for application. 2 Consortia Total value >£6million SelectScopingStudies ScopingStudies Call 2 Programme

  12. Assessment and quantification of Uncertainty and Risk in Natural Hazards • Handling of uncertainty & riskwithin the Natural Hazards community poor • Push for good practice guidance on uncertainty & risk analysis, and formalisation of approach across natural hazards science • Need to change the uncertaintyand risk culture within the fragmented natural hazard community Scoping Study (2008) SAPPUR (Bristol)

  13. Accounting for model limitations Combining evidence Accounting for unquantifiable uncertainties Improving risk models Flooding hazards Multi-phase fluid flow hazards Earthquake hazards Hydrometeorological hazards (non-flooding) Research Programme £2m (100%) over 4 years Single consortium Including KTPs

  14. Summary & Conclusions Main focus on interdisciplinarity Multihazards Cutting edge natural AND social science Questions?

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