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Starting to Decide

Starting to Decide. Deliberative Phase: Weekend 1. The Mandate. The Citizens Assembly must assess models for electing members of the Legislative Assembly and issue a report recommending whether the current model for these elections should be retained or another model should be adopted.

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Starting to Decide

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  1. Starting to Decide Deliberative Phase: Weekend 1

  2. The Mandate The Citizens Assembly must assess models for electing members of the Legislative Assembly and issue a report recommending whether the current model for these elections should be retained or another model should be adopted

  3. The Task • The assessment “must:a) be limited to the manner in which voters’ ballots are translated into seats in the Legislative Assembly, andb) take into account the potential effect of its recommended model on the system of government in British Columbia.” • If there is a recommendation for change:“a) the model must be consistent with the Constitution of Canada and the Westminster parliamentary system, andb) the model must be described clearly and in detail in its report.”

  4. The Assembly’s Preliminary Statement “We have a flourishing democracy in which voters hold parties and governments accountable and we would not want to abandon such a system unless it was clear that :1) the system had deficiencies that detracted from the evolution and maintenance of healthy democratic politics in the province, and2) we were convinced that there was an alternate system that could be adopted that would speak to the identified deficiencies.”

  5. Questions to be answered • Are there problems with the current electoral system? • Do we know what they are? • Is there an alternative that would address those issues? • What will be the new problems that the alternative will create? • Will the ‘cure’ be worse than the disease?

  6. Perspectives on the Electoral System • Voters, representation and the electoral process- what system best provides for the democratic representation of preferences and interests? • The legislative process and the challenges of governing- how does the system shape the relationship between legislature and government? PR advocates tend to focus on 1(fair votes) Hallsor Gordon Morey Plurality/Majority advocates on 2(stable government) McKinnon Nielson The challenge is to find a balanced assessment

  7. Some Cautionary Reminders • There is no perfect electoral system – all involve trade-offs between desirable characteristics • Changing the electoral system will not “fix” everything – it is only one element of the political system • Politics will still be essentially adversarial • Political parties will not go away • Party discipline will not disappear – it is a major reason for parties • Parties and the political & governing dynamics would change – but we can’t predict with any certainty what the consequences of any change might be

  8. Two-Party Competition • Two large parties competing with one another • Incentive is to maintain enough differentiation to hold their voters • But if we change the system to increase the number of parties ?

  9. Multi-party Competition ? • If smaller parties are positioned between the large parties, the electoral incentive is to move towards the centre increasing the accommodative forces in system • If smaller parties are positioned beyond the large parties, then the pressures may be to pull the large ones further apart increasing the polarization of the system

  10. Three Principal Dimensions Electoral system design implies decisions on three principal dimensions – some explicit, others implicit – and the trade-offs that may exist among them • Voter Choiceconcerned with the nature and extent of the choices that voters have at the ballot box • Local Representationrecognizing and incorporating the geographic dimensions of social and political life • Proportionalitygiving primacy to the partisan, system-wide basis of electoral organization and competition

  11. Voter Choice • Largely determined by the number and nature of competing political parties and candidates- this makes the parties’ nomination processes key to voter’s options- preferential ballots and open lists attempt to increase real choice by transferring some of this power from parties to voters • Varying ballot structures can provide for a wide range of different choices, within the confines of the logic of the basic electoral system being used.

  12. Plurality Majority STV PR List Mixed Simple  beside candidate’s name Rank candidates 1, 2, 3 Rank candidates 1, 2, 3 Indicate party preference by selecting list or candidate - or ranking constituency candidates- PR List voting in PR component Typical Ballot Forms

  13. Local Representation • Assumes the fundamental basis for political representation is community- clear link between voters and individual politicians- all areas of province have an identified representative • Does party discipline make mockery of the idea of local representation? • Disciplined parties in legislature made up of local representatives • Local MLAs as “ombudsmen” and conduit to government services • Local representation in multi-member districts- e.g. Plurality vs STV systems

  14. Local Representation & Electoral Systems HIGH LOW STV Majority Plurality Mixed List PR?

  15. Proportionality • Basic concept is that party preferences are the fundamental reality of elections and that elections must be understood in system-wide terms.Therefore % seats should = % votes • No system is “perfectly” proportional due to: DMs, level(s) of application / assignment, thresholds, formula, & extent used, overhangs • Largest parties usually advantaged • Different kinds of thresholds can advantage different kinds of minor parties

  16. Proportionality & Electoral Systems • Proportionality as a relative condition:Q =How much consideration should be given to insuring the representation of small parties? HIGH LOW List PR Mixed Plurality Majority ? STV The extent of proportionality in Mixed and STV systems can be varied to taste, though will be conditioned by the number of parties and candidates competing.

  17. Plurality Majority STV PR List Mixed Local by-election Local by-election (OR designated alternate) Local by-election (-> majority principle) ORGo back to original ballot for next person Next person on party list - Next person on list for list MLA- Local by-election for constituency seat Vacancies: An important side issueA variety of options but these are usual patterns:(different provisions may have implications for general election rules)

  18. Electoral System Families: Basic Features • Choices on Proportionality and Local Representation determine which electoral families might be be used

  19. Plurality Majority STV PR List Mixed None - any needed fine tuning? Provision for preferential ballot & transfer rules OR Run-off District magnitudes (uniform or varied)Ballot completion rules Quota and transfer rulesSeat vacancy provision Ballot form (open or closed)Tiers; seat allocation & assignment rulesFormula or quotaThresholdSeat vacancy provision Supplementary (MMM) OR Complementary (MMP) principleLocal – List balanceCandidate eligibility rulesOne OR Two Ballots Candidate seats – as in plurality or majority systemList seats – as for PR List system Seat vacancy provisions for both types of seats Decisions to describe an Alternative System

  20. The Political & Governing Dynamics • Electoral system dynamics play out through the political process:1) In characterizing the basis and meaning of democratic representation as well as defining the outcomes of elections2) In providing the framework for electoral organization and party competition3) In structuring legislatures and structuring parliamentary government • The most powerful contrast is thought to be the one between proportional and non-proportional systems

  21. Political & Governing Dynamics: Elections

  22. Political & Governing Dynamics: Party Competition

  23. Political & Governing Dynamics: Parliamentary Government

  24. Starting to Decide • The question before the Assembly is whether there is an alternate electoral system that would foster a different, and preferred, set of political and governing dynamics for the province that might replace those we now have. • So what features, what political dynamics, do you believe would be best for British Columbia’s politics? • If you can rank key features, then you will have identified the value positions that will allow you to identify the kind of electoral system that will be best

  25. Desirable Features of BC Politics ? • MLAs chosen to represent a specific ‘local’ constituency • Opportunity to vote for both preferred candidate and party • Seats won should mirror votes won • System should encourage multi-party competition • Elections should determine who forms government • Strong role for individual MLAs • A socially and culturally representative Legislature • Single-party majority governments

  26. Identifying the Future • Can you identify which 3 of those features are most important? • Are there any of those features that are simply not important? • Are you sure? Can you identify the reasons that underlie your choices?

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