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HMEP Household Survey Summary of Results Sept-Jan

HMEP Household Survey Summary of Results Sept-Jan. THE SAMPLE CAVEAT EMPTOR. Wave 1 (Sept-Oct 2010) ~2300 samples ( Garmser , Lashkar Gah , Nad Ali, Narri S arranj , Nawa ) Wave 2 (Jan-Feb 2011) ~2300 new (not repeat) samples from those districts,

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HMEP Household Survey Summary of Results Sept-Jan

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  1. HMEP Household SurveySummary of ResultsSept-Jan

  2. THE SAMPLECAVEAT EMPTOR • Wave 1 (Sept-Oct 2010) • ~2300 samples (Garmser, LashkarGah, Nad Ali, NarriSarranj, Nawa) • Wave 2 (Jan-Feb 2011) • ~2300 new (not repeat) samples from those districts, • added ~1500 samples from NawZad, Musa Qala, Sangin, and Reg • Diverse, non-representative sample • >350 samples per district • Broad tribal representation across all Districts • ~90% rural • ~30% had some history of being displaced • ~40% admitted income from poppy production

  3. DISTRICT SAMPLE

  4. TRIBE Breakdown

  5. ATTITUDES TOWARD DISTRICT GOVERNMENT • Question:Over the last 12 months in your District, the District Government has… Improved _____ • Asked about…Education, Health, Roads, Urban Infrastructure, Security on Roads, Security in Urban Areas, Electricity Supply, Irrigation, Drinking Water, Reduced Govt, Corruption, Access to Info, Central Bazaar, Jobs, Taxes, Listening, Justice • Trends and Analysis: • Government corruption and electricity have most unfavorable baselines • Electricity has negative trend • Roads and road security seen positively and improving • Except for electricity, all trends are positive or neutral • Question: Over the next six months, do you see each of the following in your district improving, staying the same, or worsening? • Answer: Mild positive trend for all questions over all Districts except electricity

  6. OVERALL SECURITY: STATUS Overall improvement, LashgarGah is weakest. Wave 2 shows strong baseline across all Districts.

  7. CONTRIBUTORS TO SECURITY IMPROVEMENT • How satisfied are you with each of the following’s role in keeping the district secure? • Trends from September to January • District Authority: decreased satisfaction • Police: decreased satisfaction • Army: very dramatically decreased satisfaction • ISAF: increased satisfaction • Local Militia: strongly increased satisfaction • Taliban: very strongly increased satisfaction • All shifts consistent through all Districts • Taliban and Army (dis)satisfaction moves significant (1.5+ pts) in every District

  8. HMEP SURVEY CONCLUSIONS • Perceptions about District Government and GIRoA…All Districts • Ability to deliver services and be responsive – neutral, trends are mildly positive • Efforts to decrease poppy production and improve agricultural opportunities -- not seen as important, not increasing • People anticipate improvement in the future • Security Improving -- Urban Centers, Roads, and Overall • Improvement attributed to Militia and Taliban • Dissatisfied with Army and Police

  9. BACK UP

  10. Survey Methodology Concerns • Huge wealth of unmineddemographic information • Potential insights correlating demo to (dis)satisfaction • Codebook (.xls) and document vary • Questions in the document not asked • Observations are not pair-able • Wave 1 and wave 2 vary • Added districts; composition w.r.t. district • Questions’ wording • Questions’ sequence • Scales vary • 1..3, 1..4, 1..5 • 1 = good & 1 = bad

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