1 / 20

Pork Commodity Outlook: the international dimension

Pork Commodity Outlook: the international dimension. Presentation to Vietnamese Officials by Monte Vandeveer, ERS/USDA February 2006 Hanoi. Why look at international hog and pork markets?. Find benchmarks for industry performance, for example: Costs of production

azize
Download Presentation

Pork Commodity Outlook: the international dimension

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Pork Commodity Outlook:the international dimension Presentation to Vietnamese Officials by Monte Vandeveer, ERS/USDA February 2006 Hanoi

  2. Why look at international hog and pork markets? • Find benchmarks for industry performance, for example: • Costs of production • Structural changes in production and consumption • ‘World’ prices for pork cuts • Marketing strategies • Find export opportunities • Find import opportunities

  3. Largest hog and pork producers • China • EU • USA • Brazil • Vietnam • Source: FAOSTAT.

  4. Largest pork exporters • EU-25 • USA • Canada • Brazil • China • FAOSTAT, 2004.

  5. Largest pork importers • Japan • USA • Russia • Mexico • S. Korea • China • FAOSTAT, 2004.

  6. What is traded? • Primarily frozen, boneless cuts of pork • Secondary markets: • Carcasses (e.g., Vietnam piglets to Hong Kong) • Bone-in cuts (e.g., ribs) • Offals or organ meat (e.g., hearts, skin) • Chilled (cold but not frozen) meat trade is expanding

  7. Disease rules create trade zones • Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major factor determining trade flows • Old FMD-free zone: Japan, Korea, Taiwan; Canada, USA; Denmark; Oceania • Chilled and frozen pork trade among these countries, but not with others • Mexico is joining this group • Rest of world: Russia, Hong Kong are the leading importers; Brazil the leading exporter • Processed pork (e.g., canned ham) can be traded; cooking kills FMD virus

  8. Trade in cuts • Because most trade is in cuts, think about supply and demand for each cut, rather than for the carcass • Some countries like some cuts better than other cuts • Some countries value offals, some don’t • Trade takes cuts to the market that offers the highest value.

  9. Example • Japan likes dark chicken meat (such as leg) • Dark meat has higher price in Japan than white meat • US likes white chicken meat (such as breast) • Dark meat has lower price in US than white meat • US ships dark meat to Japan • Dark meat gets a higher price in Japan than in US

  10. Hypothetical example • Country A produces a hog for $100 • Country B produces a hog for $50 • Country A won’t use pigs’ feet; price in A is $.01 • Country B uses pigs’ feet; price in B is $.50 • Country A ships pigs’ feet to Country B • Even though cost of hog production is much higher in Country A

  11. A hog is the sum of its parts • Market value of a hog is the sum of the price received for each part • Exports of one part raise the value of that part in the exporting market, and thus the value of the hog • Imports of one part lower the value of that part in the importing market, and thus the value of the hog

  12. Trade in cuts or parts leads to intra-industry trade • Many countries import and export pork • Normal condition • Tastes are different between countries • Production costs are different between countries • Consumers are better off because of trade • For producers, trade impact varies • Good idea to examine foreign markets for demand for certain cuts/parts, and processed products

  13. Vietnam trade in pork • Exports: • $31 million in 2004 • $25 million in 2005 (incomplete data) • 12,000 tons, carcass weight • Imports • $4 million in 2004 • $15 million in 2005 (incomplete data) • 8,500 tons, carcass weight equivalent (using many assumptions) • Source: Global Trade Atlas

  14. What Vietnam trades • Exports: primarily carcasses to Hong Kong (piglets?) • Imports: primarily sausages from USA (may not be all pork) • Many other trade flows possible in future • Look at China, Philippines

  15. What Philippines imports • 2004: • Pig skin with fat--$10 million • Offal--$8 million • Muscle cuts--$8 million

  16. China’s trade • Imports • Mostly organ meat (hearts, etc.) • $291 million in 2004 • $204 million in 2005 • 281,000 tons, carcass equivalent, in 2005 • Exports • Mostly pork meat • $780 million in 2004 • $790 million in 2005 • 583,000 tons, carcass equivalent, in 2005 • Hong Kong, Japan, North Korea biggest markets

  17. Factors in global competitiveness • Genetic base • Feed costs • Disease control • Processing capacity • Labor • Capital • Marketing skills

  18. Feed critical factor for hog production: corn supply and demand

  19. Feed, continued:soymeal imports and use

  20. Vietnam tariffs • Corn: 5% • Soymeal: 5% • Pork • ASEAN: 5% • China: 10% • Rest of world: 30% • Low feedstuff tariffs help livestock industries in Vietnam

More Related