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Contemporary Developments in Nepal & Options for India

Contemporary Developments in Nepal & Options for India. Dr. Rahul Tripathi & Joel D’Silva South Asia Together – ICG, Goa. Structure of the Presentation. Nepal – Brief Historical Background. Democratic experience and Maoist resurgence. Build up to the recent crisis.

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Contemporary Developments in Nepal & Options for India

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  1. Contemporary Developments in Nepal & Options for India Dr. Rahul Tripathi & Joel D’Silva South Asia Together – ICG, Goa.

  2. Structure of the Presentation • Nepal – Brief Historical Background. • Democratic experience and Maoist resurgence. • Build up to the recent crisis. • India’s dilemmas and options. • Challenges ahead

  3. NepalBrief Historical Background • Evolution of Monarchy • The Rana Regime (1846-1952) • Panchayat Democracy (1960-1990) • Return to parliamentary democracy (1990-2005)

  4. Prithvi Narayan Shah ShumsherJung Bahadur Rana Birendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev

  5. Nature of Nepalese Society • Predominantly Hindu (90%) • Major ethnic groups a. Tibeto-Burman migrants (hills & mountains) b. Indo-Aryans (plains, Terai ) c. Newari (original people – Katmandu Valley) • Prevalence of Indo-Aryan caste hierarchy

  6. Nature of Nepalese Economy • Among the poorest & least developed countries • Agriculture provides 80% of employment & 41% of GDP • Unemployment 50% approx. • Economic growth – 0.8% (1960-1990) and 2.1% (1990-2003)

  7. Democratic Experience & Maoist Resurgence • Turbulent parliamentary Democracy in 1990’s. • Emergence of Maoists in mid-90’s. • 40 point demand on Nationalism (9), People’s democracy (17) & Livelihood (14). • Armed struggle

  8. Girija Prasad Koirala Prachanda Dr. Baburam Bhattarai The Maoists

  9. Spread of Maoism Nepal (1990’s) Nepal (2006)

  10. Build up to the recent crisis • The crisis of Monarchy a. The Palace massacre (2001) b. The ‘activist’ & ‘unpopular’ monarch. c. Clamp down on freedoms • Dismissal of the Government & proclamation of emergency • 7 party alliance (SPA) & Public protests • Restoration of Parliament

  11. Prince Paras King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev Violent Protests

  12. India’s Dilemmas and Options • Nepal's special status with India • The ‘Ugly’ Indian • The ‘Indispensable’ Indian • India’s response a. From ‘twin pillar theory’ to ‘people’s will’. b. Maoist concern

  13. PM Manmohan Singh Shyam Saran Dr. Karan Singh

  14. Challenges Ahead • Political parties – consensus building • Maoists – Joining the mainstream? • King – ‘Uncertain Future’ • India – ‘Ever Balancer’

  15. Picture Sources: National Geographic Outlook Magazine Wikipedia

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