From Swing Voter to Blue Tiger?

1. From Swing Voter to Blue Tiger? Korean Americans and the 2012 United States Presidential Elections Taeku Lee UC-Berkeley Korea Economic Institute Washington, DC11 December 2012

2. The 2012 Election Eye on the Asian American vote A new political Realignment?

5. Presidential Election Voting, by Race (exit poll data, 1992-2012)

6. Demographic Background Fastest growing group in US Growth expected to continue Specific patterns for Koreans

7. Immigration from Asia, 1820-2000 Source: Immigration and Naturalization Services

8. U.S. Population Change, 2000 - 2010

9. Asian American Population Projected Growth, 2000 - 2050 (POPULATION IN MILLIONS) Census Bureau population projections and estimates as of July 1 2010

10. 10 Percent of 5 Percent “Other Asians” includes Laotians (1.9%), Pakistanis (1.7%), Cambodians (1.6%), Hmong (1.4%), Thai (1.1%), Taiwanese (0.6%), Indonesian (0.4%), Bangladeshi (0.4%), among others.

11. Korean American Population Dynamics

12. The Geography of Korean America

14. National Asian American Survey 2008 and 2012 surveys Representative, extensive

16. 2008 National Asian American Survey http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/icpsrweb/ICPSR/studies/31481

17. 2012 National Asian American Survey • 6,257 completed telephone interviews. • In the field from July 31 to October 20, 2012. • Eleven interview languages • English, Cantonese, Hindi, Hmong, Khmer, Korean, Japanese, Mandarin, Tagalog, Thai, and Vietnamese. • Oversamples of SE-Asians, NHPIs. • Comparison samples of whites, blacks, Latinos. • 827 Asian Indians, 743 Chinese, 633 Koreans, 599 Filipinos, 537 Vietnamese, 525 Japanese, 319 Hmong, 305 Cambodians, 251 other Asians, 419 Native Hawaiians, 152 other Pacific Islanders, 350 Whites, 309 African Americans, 308 Latinos

19. 2012 National Asian American Survey • 6,257 completed telephone interviews. • In the field from July 31 to October 20, 2012. • Eleven interview languages • English, Cantonese, Hindi, Hmong, Khmer, Korean, Japanese, Mandarin, Tagalog, Thai, and Vietnamese. • Oversamples of SE-Asians, NHPIs. • Comparison samples of whites, blacks, Latinos. • Primary analysis is of sub-sample of 633 Korean-Ams. • Results weighted (sex, education, state, ethnicity, citizenship} • 47% of Korean-Am sample vote registered.

20. Democratic but Undecided? High support for Obama High degree of uncertainty

21. From People to Politics

22. NAAS Pre-Election

23. NAAS Two-Way Marginal

24. Pre-election Preferences, Over Time

25. Republican Convention Democratic Convention

26. Breaking Down the Vote Modest demographic differences Large differences on key election issues Pattern of party voting and uncertainty

27. 2012 Vote by Nativity, Gender, Interview Language

28. 2012 Vote by Education and Household Income

29. Key Election Issues

30. Proximity on Key Issues

31. Party Identification by Group

32. Party Identification and Vote Choice

33. Favorability Ratings

34. Expected 2012 Vote by Reported 2008 Vote

35. Issues and Agenda Economy salient, but mixed effects Strong views on health care, immigration, deficit Divided views on Korea

36. “Most Important Problem”

37. Great Recession’s Effects

38. “Very Serious” Problems

39. ACA – Health Care Reform

40. Immigration Policy

41. Deficit Reduction

42. Korea-Specific Issues

43. Beyond Voting and Elections Multiple modes of engagement Transnational activities Basis for pan-Asian commonality

44. Beyond Voting

45. Looking Homeward

46. Basis of Commonality

47. Summary • Korean Americans are a work in progress: • Patterns of Democratic voting and liberal positions on policy issues; • Persistence of uncertainty. • Prospects for pan-Asian and trans-Pacific ties.

48. Funders and Partners Thank YOU! Questions?