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ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES

ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES. Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar. ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES. CONTENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS GEO-DIVISION OF THE WORLD (FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER)

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ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES

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  1. ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES Dr. sc. Goran Granić et al Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar

  2. ENERGY SECTOR IN THE PERIOD 1990 TO 2005 ANALYSIS AND CONSEQUENCES CONTENT POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS GEO-DIVISION OF THE WORLD (FOR THE PURPOSE OF THIS PAPER) WORLD POPULATION ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ENERGY DEMAND ENERGY PRODUCTION RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ENERGY EFFICIENCY NEW TECHNOLOGIES CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING ENERGY TRANSPORTATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION OBSERVATIONS

  3. 1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS EUROPE: BREAKDOWN OF USSR, YUGOSLAVIA, CZECOSLOVAKIA, FALL OF COMMUNIST SYSTEM WAR IN CROATIA, BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA, KOSOVO AND RUSSIA (CHECHNIA) DEMOCRATIC AND ECONOMIC TRANSITION OF EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES EUROPEAN UNION ENLARGEMENT MIDDLE EAST WAR IN KUWAIT TALIBAN REGIME IN AFGANISTAN OVERTHROWN SADDAM HUSSEIN IN IRAQ OVERTHROWN SOUTH AMERICA POLITICAL INSTABILITY OF SOME COUNTRIES USA TERRORIST ATTACK 11 SEPTEMBER 2001 AFRICA LOCAL WARS AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN A LARGE NUMBER OF COUNTRIES CRIMES IN RWANDA

  4. 1. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS CHINA POLITICAL CHANGES PAVED THE WAY TO MARKET- ORIENTED ECONOMY RETURN OF HON KONG ISRAEL AND PALESTINE CONTINUITY OF CONFLICT AND MILITARY ACTIONS GLOBAL PROBLEM TERRORISM POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND WAR ACTIVITIES IN THE ENERGY PRODUCTION AREAS CROATIAN INDEPENDENCE, TRANSITION AND START OF THE EU FULL MEMBERSHIP NEGOTIATIONS

  5. 2. GEO - DIVISION OF THE WORLD • OECD N. America - Canada, Mexicoand USA • OECD Pacific - Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand • OECD Europe - Austria, Belgium, Czech R., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, • Hungary, Island, Ireland, Italy, Luxemburg, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, • Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom • Non-OECD Europe - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulagaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Gibraltar, • FYROM, Malta, Roumenia, Serbia and Montenegro and Slovenia • Former USSR - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belorussia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghisia, Latvia, • Lithuania, Moldavia, Russia, Tadzhikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan • Middle East - Bahrein, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, • Syria, United Arab Emirates and Yemen • Latin America – countries of Central and South America excl. Mexico • Other Asia – Asian countries excl. China, India, Japan and Korea • Africa – all African countries

  6. 3. WORLD POPULATION (million)

  7. 4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 4.1. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (PKM - 109 2000 US$)

  8. 4. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 4.2. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT PER CAPITA (PKM)

  9. 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.1. TOTAL WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION (106 TOE)

  10. 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.2. REGIONS IN TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION

  11. 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.3. TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA (106 TOE)

  12. 5. ENERGY DEMAND 5.4. TOTAL WORLD CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY FORMS (106 TOE)

  13. 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION6.1. WORLD PRODUCTION OF PRIMARY ENERGY (106 TOE)

  14. 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.2. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION PER CAPUTA (kgen/capita)

  15. 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.3. STRUCTURE OF WORLD ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION (TWh)

  16. 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.4. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION BY REGIONS (TWh)

  17. 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.5. ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION PER CAPITA (kWh/capita)

  18. 6. ENERGY PRODUCTION 6.6. PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION INCREASE (106 TOE)

  19. 1.200 1.100,0 1.046,6 1.042,2 1.039,9 1.026,8 1.024,3 1.026,3 1.023,9 980,3 968,5 957,7 956,5 952,9 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 First 20 World total 7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 7.1. CRUDE OIL RESERVES (BILLION OF BARRELS) Source: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review

  20. 200.000 180.606 180.176 177.822 180.000 164.321 159.354 156.112 153.253 152.244 149.396 147.652 160.000 145.957 146.194 134.981 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 First 20 World total 7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS7.2. NATURAL GAS RESERVES (BILLION m3) Source: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review

  21. Discovered reserves of hydrates in land and sea Corroborated reserves 20 x 1015 m3 1 m3 hydrate = 164 m3 natural gas 7. RESERVES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS7.3. RESERVES OF HYDRATES Arctic Ocean Arctic Ocean Atlantic Ocean Pacific Ocean Pacific Ocean Indian Ocean

  22. 8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS8.1. CRUDE OIL Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005

  23. 8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 8.2. NATURAL GAS Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005

  24. 8. PRICES OF PRIMARY ENERGY FORMS 8.3. COAL Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2005

  25. 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 9.1. LARGE POWER PLANTS HYDRO POWER PLANTS: • Utility degree improvement • Significant growth in Central and South America COAL- FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: • Utility degree improvement and installed capacity increase • Efficient SO2 removal and pilot project of CO2 emission mitigation • Significant capacity growth especially in China and India GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER PLANTS: • Utility degree improvement • Significant capacity increase NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS: • Extended lifetime (60 years=, unit capacity increase, evolutinary improvements, dramatic changes in design and configuration of the existing technologies, several initiatives in new reactor development (GIF, INPRO, ITER)

  26. 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT9.1.1. COAL - AND GAS - FIRED THERMAL POWER UNITS 250 Capacity increase in thermal power units in 1990-2003 period, % 200 150 100 50 0 Eastern Croatia Western China India Japan Other Asia & Oceania Middle East Central & South Amerika Africa World total North America Europe Europe and ex-SSSR -50 Source: Energy Information Administration

  27. 400 Africa South and Central America GW Other Asia, Middle East nd Oceania Other Asia India Japan China 300 Japan Eastern Europe and ex-USSR East Europe + ex-USSR North America Western Europe 200 N. America 100 1000 1990 nuclear W. Europe GW 1990 total 800 2003 total 0 2003 nuclear 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 600 400 200 0 Western Eastern China India Japan Other Asia North South and i Africa Europe Europe and and Australia America Central Ex-USSR America 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT9.1.2. NUCLEAR ENERGY – CAPACITY STATUS • Most of nuclear capacities are installed in Western Europe and North America • Between 1990 and 2003 only Japan had a significant growth in nuclear capacities After 1990 there is noticeable stagnation in installed NP capacity growth In future most of new nuclear capacities expected in China as to meet the strong electricity demand Growth Source: EIA Energy Information Administration (EIA)

  28. 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 9.2. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES WIND • Unit capacity increase and investment costs reduction • High growth of construction BIOMASS • Application in electricity production, heat production and transportation • Technological progress realized SUN • Increase in collector installation by annual rate of 13%, and solar cells by 27% • Dominant silicium-based technology (93.7%), GEOTHERMAL ENERGIES • Capacity growth of 44%, electricity generation growth of 48%; thernal capacities growth of 76%, and heat production growth of 70% in previous period SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANTS HYDRO POWER PLANTS • Permanent generation growth • Small steps forward in technological development

  29. €c/kWh 9. CONSTRUCTION AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT 9.2.1. WIND – PRICE GROWTH TENDENCY EWEA target: 75000 MW in Europe by 2010

  30. 10. ENERGY EFFICIENCY Significant progress in energy efficiency improvements in: Changing attitude towards energy efficiency in legal sense, government measures, technological improvements, and awareness-raising and education of expert and general public Utility degree increase in energy generation and transformation Increased use of cogenration Reduction of losses in transportation and distribution Energy efficiency improvements in technological processes Energy efficiency improvements in consumers: coolers, chillers, and their combinations, laundry washers and dryers, dish washers, electric stoves, light sources, and air-conditioning equipment Increased insulation quality and production of new materials in construction industry

  31. 11. NEW TECHNOLOGIES HYDROGEN • Major lines of development of hydrogen production • Fosil fuels – reforming natural gas, coal carburation, incomplete oil derivative oxidation • Water electrolysis by use of RES – solar photovoltaic, solar thermal, hydro, geothermal energy, etc. • Thermal chemical production – water decomposition in chemical reactins with heat • Nuclear energy – water electrolysis and decomposition • Biosystems – biomass carburation, algae biophotolysis Problems of hydrogen storage • Gaseous hydrogen –- composite and other reservoirs • Liquified hydrogen – criogens, absorbent solutions, organic liquifactions • Solid materials –- carbon and hydrides, able to absorb hydrogen • Main areas of hydrogen use • Hydrogen combustion: internal-combustion engines - transport; gas turbines –- aircraft transport, combined energy plants • Fuel cells; decentralized electricity and heat generation, transport and others (develpent of high-temperature – decentralized CHP, low-temperature – for vehicles and small CHP)

  32. 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS12.1. TRANSPORT Freight transport - EU 15 100 4,8 4,8 4,6 5,0 5,5 5,3 6,8 7,1 7,2 7,0 6,9 7,6 7,4 7,5 90 8,8 10,9 13,4 12,9 14,0 80 14,4 16,4 18,1 Share of road transport is increasing, while share if railway and river transport is decreasing – constant trend 24,1 70 30,1 Pipelines 60 River transport (%) 50 Railways 40 74,7 75,5 74,0 72,9 Road transprot 70,6 69,3 60,0 30 52,1 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 1991 1995 2000 2001 2002 Freight transport - USA 100 16,6 16,6 17,8 90 21,6 23,4 24,2 25,0 Share of road transport is increasing, while share of railway and pipeline transport is decreasing. Railway transport is stable. 80 10,4 10,0 10,4 13,1 12,8 70 12,0 12,3 Pipelines 60 River transport 42,2 43,1 41,3 (%) 50 38,2 37,6 Railways 41,5 39,1 40 Road transport 30 20 30,9 30,5 30,3 Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission,"EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004" 27,2 26,2 23,6 22,4 10 0 1970 1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001

  33. 1,6 2,5 100 4,0 4,1 4,6 5,7 5,5 5,9 5,9 1,6 1,2 1,1 1,0 0,9 0,9 1,0 1,0 1,0 8,4 10,4 6,7 6,8 6,3 6,2 6,2 90 6,3 6,3 8,7 9,3 9,2 8,4 8,3 8,3 8,3 11,8 12,7 80 Passenger transport - EU15 70 60 (%) 50 Airways 79,5 40 79,0 78,9 78,8 78,5 78,5 78,8 Trams and metro 76,1 73,8 Railways 30 Buses Pasenger cars 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 1991 1995 1999 2000 2001 2002 100 5,4 0,5 7,7 9,1 9,5 10,9 10,6 0,3 11,2 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,5 90 0,4 3,2 0,4 0,3 0,3 3,1 0,3 3,5 3,4 0,3 2,3 3,0 2,4 80 Passenger transport 70 - SAD 60 (%) 50 Airways 91,3 89,1 Trams and metro 87,2 86,6 85,7 85,0 84,7 40 Railways Buses 30 Passenger cars 20 10 0 1970 1980 1985 1990 1999 2000 2001 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS12.1. TRANSPORT Railway transport decreasing while airways transport is increasing. Share of road and railway transport is decearsing and share of airway transport is increasing. Source: Directorate-General for Energy and Transport, European Commission, "EU Energy and Transport in Figures 2004"

  34. 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS 12.1. TRANSPORT CHANGING REGULATION ON THERMAL PROTECTION IN CROATIA FROM 1970 UNTIL NOW 1970 – Rules on technical measures and requirements for thermal protection of buildings – Official Bulletin of SFRY SFRJ 35/70 – 3 climate zones. 1980 – new requirements in thermal protection of buildings. New, stricter, and amended version of these norms adopted in 1987 and is still in force today as HRN U.J.5.600, HRN U.J5.510, HRN U.J5.520, HRN U.J5.530. LEGAL ENVIRONMENT AND HEAT NEEDS IN BUILDINGS 2 350 300 250 Electricity in households 200 150 Electricity for ventilation Specific energy demand in kWh/m 100 Hot water for consume 50 Heating 0 OLD HOUSES PASSIVE HOUSES LOW-ENERGY HOUSES NEW REGULATION 2005 CRO REGULATION 1987

  35. Number of inhabited apartments by year of construction 12. CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION SECTORS 12.2. DWELLINGS • Currently 83% of buildings in Croatia has unsatisfactory thermal protection in relation to the European standards and more than 50% of buildings was built without any thernal protection • New technical requirements on heat energy savings and thermal protection in buildings – first step in harmonization with Directive 2002/91/EC – needed heat certificate for buildings (as from 01 July 2006 in Croatia) 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 data before 1919 1919.- 1946.- 1960 1961- 1971.- 1981.- 1991- from 1996 incomplete 1945. 1970. 1980 1990 1995 not available apartments

  36. 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING GAS BEFORE 1990 MONOPOLY: NATIONAL OR SUPPLY AREAS COMPETITION: NON EXISTING IN NATIONAL MARKET SUPPLY NATIONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN GAS COMPANIES REGULATION: REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT THERE IS NOT INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP: IN PRINCIPLE STATE-OWNERSHIP PREVAILS CUSTOMERS: CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER

  37. 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING GAS UNTIL 2005 RESTRUCTURING: UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSPORT AND DISTRIBUTION FROM PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY ESTABLISHING TRANSPORT NETWORK OPERATOR ESTABLISHING DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OPERATOR (OR COMBINED OPERATOR) STORAGE AS SEPARATE ACTIVITY COMPETITION: IN PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY NATIONAL MARKETS: MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET REGULATION: INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMESION, TAKE – OVER OF SMALLER COMPANIES CUSTOMERS: POSSIBILITY TO CHOOSE SUPPLIER

  38. 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING ELECTRICITY BEFORE 1990 MONOPOLY: NATIONAL COMPETITION : NONE COMPETITION IN SUPPLY NATONAL MARKETS: TRADING BETWEEN ELECTRIC POWER UNDERTAKINGS REGULATION: REGULATOR IS GOVERNMENT, THERE IS NOT INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP : STATE OWNERSHIP PREVAILS CUSTOMERS : CANNOT CHOOSE SUPPLIER

  39. 13. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES, REFORMS, PRIVATIZATION AND MARKET OPENING ELECTRICITY UNTIL 2005 RESTRUCTURING: UNBUNDLING MARKET-ORIENTED AND MONOPOLY ACTVITIES UNBUNDLING TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION FROM GENERATION AND SUPPLY ESTABLISHING TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATOR ESTABLISHING DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM OPERATOR ESTABLISHING ELECTRICITY MARKET OPERATOR COMPETITION: IN GENERATION AND SUPPLY NATIONAL MARKETS: MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION OF MARKET REGULATIONA: INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY OWNERSHIP: PRIVATIZATION, MULTINATIONAL DIMENSION, TAKE - OVER OF SMALLER COMPANIES CUSTOMERS: POSSIBILITY TO CHOOOSE SUPPLIER

  40. Existing pipelines Pipelines under consideration / construction/ extenstion Product pipelines Proposed priority routes Of European interest 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT 14.1.OIL PIPELINES

  41. 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT 14.2. ELECTRICITY NETWORKS OF UCPTE COUNTRY MEMBERS

  42. 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT 14.3. EXPORT OF NATURAL GAS (billon m3) Export of natural gas (bill m ) 3 Gas pipelines 570,6 548,4 600 518,8 473,8 500 434,5 431,9 419,4 405,7 402,1 398,4 384,0 400 300 LNG 150,6 200 143,3 137,2 124,4 114,0 111,1 100,3 92,7 88,3 83,2 80,9 100 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Export (LNG) Export (via gas pipelines) Izvor: ENI, World Oil and Gas Review Slight but constant rise of exports in relation to production, both through gas pipelines or through LNG.

  43. 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT 14.4. GAS NETWORK PRIORITY PROJECTS Source: Trans European Network

  44. 14. ENERGY TRANSPORT 14.5. POTENTIAL GAS PIPELINES’ CAPACITIES, bill m3

  45. 15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION • Energy sector: • Air emissions, • Soil pollution, • Water pollution, • Waste (incl. nuclear) • As of 1990 noticed is general trend of air emissions reduction (6.3% under Annex I UNFCCC countries) • Transitional economies accomplished noticeable reductions (by 40%) due to economic activity setback • Significant influence of measures set out by conventions - UN FCCC and Kyoto protokol – on economies (espec. transitional countries) Source : UNFCCC: FCC/CP/2004/5

  46. 15. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTIONFUTURE ACTIVITIES • Transport systems efficiency improvement: • Leakage of energy products from from pipelines, gas pipelines and other network systems, • Increased system efficiency but there is multiple increase in transported quantities of energy products, • Pressures due to increased volumes of energy products transport by tankers, • Energy related incidents in road transport. • Energy sector waste management, especially nuclear waste • Greenhouse gas emission mitigation: • UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol implementing mechanisms : • Emissions reduction, • Emission tradings, • Projects in the framework of Joint Implementation... • reducing emission of other pollutants, with and without greenhouse effects, from the energy sector, • energy efficiency. • Finding modalities of financing measures for reducing pollution from the energy sector.

  47. 16. OBSERVATIONS / 1 • Political changes in the past 15 years had significant impact on energy consumption (former communist countries in Europe, USSR, China, etc.) • Wars and crises in most cases related to energy producing countries • Population growth took place only in China, India, other part of Asia and Africa, i.e., in less developed part of the world • Economic growth (increse in GDP) in absolute terms is higher in undeveloped world than in the developed one, but the gap is still wide • A larger portion of energy consumption was realized in undeveloped countries (55%), regardless of the fact that 2 billion people in the world do not have access to modern forms of energy • Energy intensity is improving • Regardless of increased use of renewables, oil and gas made up more than 50% of the energy consumption growth • In electricity consumption China had the higest rise; and less developed countries in absolute terms had increased electricty consumption more than developed ones.

  48. 16. OBSERVATIONS / 2 • In energy production the deficit in developed countries inceases, because primary energy forms production growth has been realized in undeveloped countries. • The higest growth in electricty production was realized in coal, gas-fired thermal power units and nuclear units, by most in China. • Crude oil and gas reserves in the past period grew faster than production. • In oil prices it is essential to point out the period of unrealistically low prices 98/99 and the period of high prices 2004/2005. Demand growth in China and other undeveloped countries is the real reason of price increase but its dominant dimension is in political and economic speculations. • Gas prices were in line with crude oil prices, only the most restictive factor are poorly developed transport network • Coal prices have been relatively more stable except for the period 2004/2005 when demand grew, mostly in China.

  49. 16. OBSERVATIONS / 3 • The past 15 years was the period of application of known technologies minimally improved to meet energy efficiency and environemantal impact requirements • The focus is increasinlgy on energy efficiecy and renewable energy sources • The characteristic of the past 15 years is the opening of electricity and gas markets, legal regulation of the market, restructuration and privatization • Barriers to market development, transport and domination of short term over long term objectives • Transport sector significantly grows without arrangements which could vitaly affect the structure of energy consumption structure • Realistic possibilities of energy efficiency improvements in building sector

  50. 16. OBSERVATIONS / 4 On the basis of the past 15 years the next 15-year developments can be foreseen: • Introduction of new technologies with more dramatic imapct on structural changes in energy supply and demand is not expected • Continuation of economic growth and energy demand growth in undeveloped countries is expected. • Continuation of political insecurity around the energy producing countries is expected • Further pressures on prices of primary energy forms is expected • More significant gvernmental involvement is expected with a view of energy effciency improvements and use renewables Desirable and crucial would be a decision by international community and governments to forge a coalition for technological development in energy sector and investments in technology. More investments in research and development of primary energy forms production and in transprot network construction for network fuels would enhance security of supply.

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