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Recession, Recovery & the Repercussions of Both Springfield, MO September 18 th , 2012

Recession, Recovery & the Repercussions of Both Springfield, MO September 18 th , 2012. U.S. Forecast . U.S. Forecast. A Pall of Uncertainty Hangs Over the Economy Health Care Reform Supreme Court ruling – now what? Dodd-Frank Fiscal Cliff / Taxaggedon Euro November Election.

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Recession, Recovery & the Repercussions of Both Springfield, MO September 18 th , 2012

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  1. Recession, Recovery & the Repercussions of Both Springfield, MO September 18th, 2012

  2. U.S. Forecast

  3. U.S. Forecast A Pall of Uncertainty Hangs Over the Economy Health Care Reform Supreme Court ruling – now what? Dodd-Frank Fiscal Cliff / Taxaggedon Euro November Election

  4. U.S. Forecast A recent paper has created an index that quantifies economic policy uncertainty and analyzes its economic impact: Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty By Scott R. Baker Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis

  5. U.S. Forecast The index has three components: Newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty. Number of federal tax code provisions set to expire in future years Disagreement among economic forecasters (Survey of Professional Forecasters)

  6. U.S. Forecast The economic impact of economic policy uncertainty The results of the statistical analysis in the paper show that higher policy uncertainty causes: Lower private investment Lower industrial production Much lower employment

  7. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

  8. U.S. Forecast Sky Mall™ Policy: An Expensive Policy that Fails to Achieve its Desired Outcome

  9. U.S. Forecast

  10. U.S. Forecast

  11. U.S. Forecast

  12. U.S. Forecast

  13. U.S. Forecast

  14. U.S. Forecast

  15. U.S. Forecast Two Sky Mall™ Policies: Health Care Reform Community Living Assistance Services and Supports ended before it began American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009 Aka Stimulus Act

  16. Why Didn’t the Stimulus Act Work?

  17. Why Didn’t the Stimulus Act Work? The Nun The Nobel Prize Winner Non-starter Stimulus

  18. U.S. Forecast Depleted Wealth Still Weak Labor Market A continuing downward force on consumer spending

  19. U.S. Household Wealth (Trillions of $)

  20. U.S. Economic Outlook

  21. U.S. Forecast

  22. U.S. Forecast

  23. U.S. Forecast

  24. U.S. Forecast What Can the Fed Do? Slowing recovery in economy and labor market June FOMC Operation Twist Extended August FOMC Status quo

  25. U.S. Forecast • Monetary Policy • - September: • Fed Funds rate unchanged until second half of 2015 • QE III • $40 billion per month – open ended • Mortgage backed securities • Is inflation a worry?

  26. U.S. Forecast

  27. U.S. Forecast

  28. A Slippery Subject Greece Greek bailouts, haircut & the election are stays of execution and not pardons Contagion concerns (PIIGS) Euro still facing greatest threat since inception Two possible outcomes for the Euro zone

  29. A Slippery Subject The Euro and the Tacoma Narrows Bridge

  30. U.S. Forecast • Economic Conjoined Twins: • The Housing Market • The Labor Market

  31. U.S. Forecast • What’s Springfield to do? • Recite The Economic Serenity Prayer • Things you can change: • Dynamic educated labor force • Invest in transportation infrastructure • Don’t give up on economic development programs

  32. Thank you • Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D. • Director • Institute for Economic Competitiveness • (407) 823-1453 • Sean@SeanSnaith.com • WWW.IEC.UCF.EDU • www.facebook.com/seansnaith • Twitter: @seansnaith

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