Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) on Food and Agriculture

1. Global Information and Early Warning System(GIEWS)on Food and Agriculture OVERVIEW OF METHODOLOGY ON CROP AND FOOD SUPPLY ASSESSMENTS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, Italy March 2004 FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

2. Introduction At the request of national governments, the FAO/GIEWS usually jointly with WFP, conducts Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAMs) for countries facing widespread and serious food emergencies. Typically 20-25 countries are annually covered by these missions. Most are in Africa but recent examples also include the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Afghanistan and Iraq. The FAO methodology followed for these assessments is briefly outlined in this presentation. Further details are available from: GIEWS, FAO, Rome, Italy. E-mail: GIEWS1@fao.org; www.fao.org/giews; telephone no. (+39) 06 570 53099. The WFP part of these assessments dealing with the vulnerability analysis is available from WFP – Emergency Needs Assessment Guidelines, 1999; Emergency Field Operations Pocketbook, 2002, e-mail: emergency.preparedness@wfp.org; and the FAO Guidelines. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

3. Purpose & Objectives of CFSAMs The primary purpose of CFSAMs is to provide accurate, timely and credible information on imminent food security problems in a country or a region so that appropriate actions can be taken by the governments, the international community and others to minimize the impact of man-made or natural disasters on the affected populations. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

4. THREE MAIN COMPONENTS OF FAO/WFP CFSAMs FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

5. THE FINAL JOINT REPORT Integrated Picture of Food Balance, Gap and Food Assistance Needs FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

6. Table of Content of a Typical CFSAM Report(Adapted from ETHIOPIA 2004 Report) Mission Highlights 1. OVERVIEW 2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT 2.1 Macroeconomic situation 2.2 Population 2.3 Agricultural sector 3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2003 3.1 General 3.2 Rainfall 2003 3.3 Area planted 3.4 Factors affecting yields 3.5 Other crops 3.6 Livestock 3.7 Cereal and pulse production forecast 3.8 Secondary season (Belg) 2002, 2003 and 2004 4. CROP PRODUCTION SITUATION BY REGION 5. FOOD SUPPLY SITUATION 5.1 Agricultural markets and prices 5.2 Grain supply/demand balance 6. EMERGENCY FOOD AID REQUIREMENTS 6.1 Review of Emergency Food Aid in 2003 6.2 Household Food Security Outlook in 2004 6.3 Nutrition 6.4 Relief Food Aid Requirements in 2004 6.5 Food Basket Considerations 6.6 Local Purchases 6.6 Emergency Food Security Reserve 6.8 Implementation Whenever it is relevant, public health issues such as the HIV/AIDS affecting food security and agriculture are also included. FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

7. Economic Analysis FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

8. Macroeconomic Profile of the Country • National Socio-Economic Parameters • Socio-Economic Conditions of the most affected • Agriculture Sector in the National Economy FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

9. Economic Parameters - Domestic • Economic Growth/Decline – GNP/GDP, Purchasing Power Parity, per capita levels • Fiscal Position – Deficit, govt. spending, • Inflation – food price inflation, effect on purchasing power • Unemployment – formal/informal sectors FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

10. Economic Parameters - External • National Trade Balance Position - Currency Position – Exchange rate changes, reserves, etc. • National debt FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

11. Socio-Economic Conditions of the Most Affected • Per Capita or Household incomes • In-kind Wage Earnings • Income Distribution • HIV/AIDS and other factors FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

12. General Development Indicators • Human Development Index • Poverty levels – various definitions FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

13. Agriculture Sector in the National Economy • Size and Share of the Sector • Employment and Livelihood, Dependence on Agriculture • Export Contributions of Agriculture • Ag. & economic policy changes FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

14. Food Production/Balance FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

15. National Food Balance Sheet • Domestic Availability • Total Utilization • Import Requirements FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

16. Table. Country X: Total grain supply/demand balance, January–December 2004 (‘000 tonnes) FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

17. Domestic Availability • Opening stocks • Domestic production • Commercial and concessional imports FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

18. Stocks: Opening and Closing • On-Farm Stocks • Private Stocks • Publicly-Held Stocks • Stocks in Ports and Transit FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

19. Crop Production Estimation • Information – GOs, NGOs, Organizations • Macrolevel – Satellite imagery and data, Rainfall data • Farmer surveys, crop cutting experiments • Factors affecting current production • Market/trader visits – cross-checks • Yield comparison with last, normal, best, worst • Other important sources of food and income FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

20. Import Requirements • Commercial import capacity • Concessional imports • Uncovered deficit • Of which emergency food aid pledged/anticipated FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

21. Commercial Food Imports(Ability and willingness to import by public and private sectors) • Import capacity • Export earnings – historical, current • Import parity prices • Other priorities for imports • Commercial market capacity (effective demand) • Degree of currency control • Foreign exchange for food imports • Degree of grain marketing control • Private versus government trading FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

22. Total Food Utilization • Human consumption • Apparent consumption rates • Population estimates • Feed use • Seed use • Industrial uses • Post-harvest losses • Exports • Closing stocks FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

23. Vulnerability Assessment FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

24. Vulnerability/Needs Assessment (WFP) • Review of emergency food aid • Household food security outlook for next year • Nutrition status • Coping mechanisms • Food aid needs and targeting of assistance • Relief food aid requirements in 2004 • Food basket considerations • Local purchases • Emergency food security reserves • Logistics issues • Implementation and other issues FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

25. Short Term Food Security Strategy • Number of people in need of assistance and the volume and composition of food aid (WFP) • Reconciliation of the national food gap (FAO side) and the total assistance requirement (WFP side) • Recommendations FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy

26. If you have any comments or suggestions on the methodology, special reports, or this presentation, please send them to: GIEWS1@fao.org FAO/GIEWS, Rome, Italy