America’s Energy Challenges

America’s Energy Challenges Steven E. Koonin Under Secretary for Science US Department of Energy June 2011 http://www.energy.gov/QTR

Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2009: ~94.6 Quads https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/

Energy Essentials Supply • Fewer, long-lived centralized facilities with distribution networks • Change has required decades • Power and fuels are commodities with thin margins • Markets with government regulation and distortion • Technology alone does not a transformation make • Transport and Stationary are disjoint • Transport is powered by oil • Power • Requires boiling large amounts of water • Sized for extremes (storage is difficult) • Numerous sources with differing… • CapEx and OpEx • Emissions • Base/Peak/Intermittency As a whole, energy is • A big and expensive system • In private hands • Governed by economics, modulated by government policies Demand • Many distributed players, shorter-lived assets • User benefit (economics, convenience, personal preference) • Determined by price, standards, behavior • Little attention to system optimization for stationary use

Energy supply has changed on decadal scales US energy supply since 1850 Source: EIA

U.S. Energy Challenges Energy Security Competitiveness Environment Federal Deficit Global Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing (2009) Daily Spot Price OK WTI Share of Reserves Held by NOC/IOC

Administration Goals Transport • Reduce oil imports by 1/3 by 2025 (~3.7 M bbl/day) • Put 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015 Stationary • By 2035, generate 80% of electricity from a diverse set of clean energy sources • Make non-residential buildings 20% more energy efficient by 2020 Environmental • Cut greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, and 83% by 2050

Six Strategies Supply Demand Stationary • Deploy Clean Electricity Modernize the Grid • Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency • Deploy Alternative Fuels • Progressively Electrify the Fleet • Increase Vehicle Efficiency Transport

Trends in Car and Light-Duty Truck Average Attributes showing changes in customer preferences, data from (EPA2010)

Cumulative retail price equivalent and fuel consumption reduction relative to 2007 for spark ignition powertrain without hybridization (NRC2010)

Progressively Electrify the Fleet • Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV) • Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) • Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) • Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Challenges with Batteries and Motors

Battery Evolution: R&D to Commercialization The energy storage effort is engaged in a wide range of topics, from fundamental materials work through battery development and testing Advanced Materials Research High Energy & High Power Cell R&D Full System Development And Testing Commercialization • High energy cathodes • Alloy, Lithium anodes • High voltage electrolytes • Lithium air couples • High rate electrodes • High energy couples • Fabrication of high E cells • Ultracapacitor carbons • Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems • 10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV systems • Advanced lead acid • Ultracapacitors Lab and University Focus Industry Focus

Status: $8,000-$11,000 for PHEV 40-mile range battery Status: Current cost of electric traction system is $40/kW 2014 PHEV: Battery that has 40-mile all-electric range and costs $3,400 2015 Power Electronics: Cost for electric traction system no greater than $12/kW peak by 2015 Hybrid Electric SystemsPetroleum Displacement via Fuel Substitution and Improved Efficiency 2012 2014 2010 Administration Goal:1 Million EVs by 2015 System Cost Types of Vehicles and Benefits PHEV Battery Cost per kW·h Power Electronics Cost per kW $1,000 - $1,200 $22 Toyota Prius HEV 2008 50 MPG $700 - $950 $19 Chevy Volt PHEV >100 MPGe Goal = $17 Goal = $500 Nissan Leaf EV All Electric Goal = $300 Targets and Status Goal = $12 2015

Deploy Advanced/Alternative Fuels Platforms / Pathways Feedstocks Products Cellulosic Sugar Platform Co or By Products Power Enzymatic Hydrolysis Fermentation Sugars • FeedstockProduction& Logistics • Energy crops • Agricultural byproducts • Waste Streams • Algae • Coal • Natural Gas Pyrolysis Oil Platform • Ethanol • Methanol • Butanol • Olefins • Aromatics • Gasoline • Diesel • Jet • Dimethyl Ether • Heat and Power LiquidBio-oil Upgrading Fast Pyrolysis Syngas Platform Filtration & Clean-up Raw syngas Gasification R E F I N I N G Lipid (Oil) Platform Transesterification Algal and other Bio-Oils Catalytic Upgrading Other enzymatic/biochemical methods

Biomass can provide significant carbon Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass ↑ 1000 Annual US Carbon (Mt C) 15% of Transportation Fuels

Categories of US Energy Consumption Buildings use about 40% of total US energy

U.S. Refrigerator Properties

Lighting Image: False color image of workstation 35 with overhead lights at 100% and undercabinet light off. Calibration bar is in candelas per meter squared. Source: http://gaia.lbl.gov/btech/papers/3831.pdf

Solid-State Lighting Goal : reduce 22% of nation’s total electrical energy usage by half Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic Science Applied R&D Wide Bandgap Semiconductors Heteroepitaxial systems Sandia Labs & Lumiled Collaboration: Cantilever Epitaxy reduces dislocation densities 100X (R&D 100 Award) • Key Enabler for Manufacturing • Lumileds(originally with HP) • General Electric • Cabot Superior Micropowders • Dow Corning • Veeco • Emcore • Cree • Bridgelux(under discussion) Theory and modelingof defect energies Synthesis : Chemical Vapor Deposition Modeling Essential Tool Development N Ga Mg H Emcore Discovery 125 system Sandia Labs & RPI demonstrates an 18% increase in light output efficiency by modifying heteroepitaxial interface Fundamental understanding helps eliminate Defects

The U.S. Grid • The numbers • > 200,000 miles of transmission lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power • Over 3,500 utility organizations • Desiderata • Reliability • Efficiency • Security • Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables • Two-way flow of information and power • Growth to handle growing demand • Challenges • Active management is required to balance generation, transmission, and demand at all times • Excursion from ideal operation can be catastrophic

Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs

Superconducting Wire: From Science to the Grid Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic Science Applied R&D Invented single crystal-like flexible templates by the kilometer: Maximize current flow (understand vortex dynamics) • Two companies are now manufacturing kilometers of superconducting cables based on the IBAD and RABiTS processes • These are deployed in three demonstration projects in the grid. Develop segregation& growth mechanisms (new materials) Ion Beam Assisted Deposition (IBAD) Rolling Assisted Bi-axially Textured Substrate (RABiTS) Understand “quantum effects” in film growth Albany, NY Modify properties with nanostructures Developed epitaxial buffers: Columbus, OH Long Island, NY

Six Strategies Supply Demand Stationary Modernize the Grid • Increase Building and Industrial Efficiency • Deploy Clean Electricity • Deploy Alternative Fuels • Progressively Electrify the Fleet • Increase Vehicle Efficiency Transport

Deploy Clean Electricity Nuclear Energy Wind Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Concentrating Solar Power Other technologies • Natural gas • Hydro • Solar thermal (parabolic troughs) • Geothermal Carbon Capture and Storage

US Gas Supply by Source Unconventional gas sources will grow Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release

US Renewable Generation (GWh) Renewables are small, but growing rapidly, especially wind Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release

Renewable Electricity Costs (2009) Coal/gas-fired ~ 3-6 cents Nuclear ~ 7 cents Source: 2009 Renewable Energy Data Book (EERE)

GaAsepi-stacks for solar microcells release; transfer print AlAs release layers GaAs wafer regrow etch in HF Low Cost Solar Cells: From Fundamental Synthesis Research to Commercialization Manufacturing/ Commercialization Basic Science Applied R&D EERE Solar America Initiative: Established new materials strategies & manufacturing methods for low-cost, high performance photovoltaic modules John Rogers, Ralph Nuzzo (co-founders) Micro-Contact Printed Solar Cells Industrial collaborations Basic research focused on materials-centric aspects of a micro-transfer printing process for single crystalline silicon and other semiconductors, dielectrics and metals

DOE SunShot Program Power Electronics Balance of Systems (BOS) PV Module $3.80/W Installed Systems Price ($/W) $1/W $1/W Target 2004 Systems Prices 2010 Systems Prices BOS Soft Costs Reductions Module Efficiency Improvements Manufacturing Cost Reductions BOS Improvements Power Electronics Cost Reductions

Areas of DOE Research Focus

Training the next generation of innovators Survey of 500+ DOE-supported nuclear science PhD’s (1999-2004) 1/3 government service or at national research labs 1/3 science and technology industries 1/3 educate and train the next generation of skilled workers http://science.energy.gov/~/media/np/pdf/Accelerating_Innovation_9_01142011.pdf

We must integrate diverse players with diverse roles • Universities • Knowledge, people, education, credible voices • National labs • Large facilities and programs, multidisciplinary RD&D • For-profit sector • High-risk innovation, take technology to scale • Optimize under economics and regulation • Government • Consistent policies, precompetitive R&D

Questions?/Comments? http://science.energy.gov/s-4 http://www.energy.gov/QTR

DOE-QTR Scope The DOE-QTR will provide a context and robust framework for the Department’s energy programs, as well as principles by which to establish multiyear programs plans and budgets. It will also offer high-level views of the technical status and potential of various energy technologies. The primary focus of the DOE-QTR process and document will be on the following: • Framing the energy challenges • A discussion of the roles of government, industry, national laboratories, and universities in energy system transformation • Summary roadmaps for advancing key energy technologies, systems, and sectors • Principles by which the Department can judge the priority of various technology efforts • A discussion of support for demonstration projects • The connections of energy technology innovation to energy policy http://www.energy.gov/QTR

DOE-QTR Timeline Nov 2010 PCAST made recommendations for DOE to do QER 3/14 – 4/15 Public comment period for DOE-QTR Framing Document 4/20 First batch of public comments released on project website Through mid-June Hold workshops and discussions of each of the Six Strategies End July/Aug Submit DOE-QTR to White House for approval Before Dec 2011 Release DOE-QTR http://www.energy.gov/QTR

DOE-QTR Logic Flow • Energy context • Supply/demand • Energy essentials • Energy challenges • Oil security • US Competitiveness • Environmental Impact • Players and Roles • Private/Gov’t • Within gov’t • Econ/Policy/Tech • Acad/Lab/Private • Technology Assessments • History • Status • Potential • Technology Roadmaps • Milestones • Cost • Schedule • Performers DOE portfolio principles Six strategies DOE priorities and portfolio Balanced within and across strategies Program plans and budgets http://www.energy.gov/QTR

America’s Energy Challenges