Behavioral science programs relevant to countering terrorism

1. Behavioral science programs relevant to countering terrorism Susan E. Brandon Division of Social, Behavioral & Educational Sciences Office of Science & Technology Policy Executive Office of the President

2. Current Status Opportunities Challenges

3. Office of Science & Technology Policy: Congress established OSTP in 1976 with a broad mandate to advise the President and others within the Executive Office of the President on the effects of science and technology on domestic and international affairs. The 1976 Act also authorizes OSTP to lead an interagency effort to develop and to implement science and technology policies and budgets and to work with the private sector, state and local governments, the science and higher education communities, and other nations toward this end. Current Status National Science & Technology Council (NSTC) Presidential Advisory Science & Technology Council (PCAST)

4. Office of Science & Technology Policy Current Status

5. President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST): Receive advice from the private sector • Co-Chairs: • John Marburger (OSTP) • Floyd Kvamme (Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers) • Reports: • IT Report on Manufacturing and Competitiveness (2004) • Technology Transfer (2003) • S&T of Combating Terrorism (2003) Current Status

6. S&T of Combating Terrorism (2003) • Public Health Preparedness (including “psychosocial effects”) • Helping First Responders • The Psychological Effects of Terrorism

7. National Science & Technology Council Director, OSTP Legend Informal Under development Committee on Environment & Natural Resources Committee on Science Committee on Technology Committee on Homeland and National Security WH: Olsen NSF: Bement NIH: Zerhouni WH: Russell DOC: Bond WH: Olsen DOC: Lautenbacher EPA: Gilman WH: Dale DOD: Wynne DHS: McQueary Research Business Models Technology Dev. Education & Workforce Dev. Global Change Research National Security R&D Large Scale Science Networking Information & Technology Radiological/Nuclear Countermeasures Air Quality Research Aquaculture Disaster Reduction Nanoscale Science, Eng. & Technology International Human Subjects Research Current Status Ecosystems WMD Medical Countermeasures IWG Physics of the Universe Toxics & Risks IWG Plant Genome Standards Water Availability & Quality IWG Dom. Animal Genomics IWG Earth Observations R&D Investment Criteria Research Misconduct Policy Infrastructure Biotechnology Aerospace IWG on Dioxin Oceans Social, Behavioral & Economic Health and the Environment.

8. Social, Behavioral & Economic Subcommittee CHARTER of the SUBCOMMITTEE ON SOCIAL, BEHAVIORAL AND ECONOMIC SCIENCES A. Official Designation The Subcommittee on Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE) is hereby established by action of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) Committee on Science (CS) and the Committee on Homeland and National Security (CHNS). B. Purpose and Scope The purpose of the Subcommittee on Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences is to advise and assist the Committee on Science, the Committee on Homeland and National Security, and the NSTC on U.S. SBE science policies, procedures and plans that relate basic and applied research and development (R&D) efforts to national priority areas, including enhancing homeland and national security and the use of SBE research knowledge for the benefit of all Americans. October 2003 Current Status

9. Countering Terrorism Resources and Research Priorities in the Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences Report of the NSTC Subcommittee on Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences Current Status

10. Social, Behavioral & Economic Subcommittee TERMS OF REFERENCE INTERAGENCY WORKING GROUP ON SBE COUNTER-TERRORISM RESEARCH PRIORITIES Goals The goals of the Interagency SBE C/T Research Priority Working Group (RPWG) are to: Propose a framework (i.e., process) to identify the most critical and cost-effective SBES research to support counter-terrorism efforts. This framework should be designed to ensure that the resources allocated to the SBES research will best support counter-terrorism efforts for the available research budget; Use this framework to identify areas where SBES research is likely to identify sources of terrorism risk or effective responses to risks; andsuggest research area priorities based on their potential for cost-effective terrorism risk reduction. Current Status

11. SBE COUNTER-TERRORISM RESEARCH PRIORITIES Current Status

12. Social, Behavioral & Economic Subcommittee TERMS OF REFERENCE INTERAGENCY WORKING GROUP ON SBE PORTFOLIO ASSESSMENT AND PRIORITY SETTING Goals: The goal of the Interagency Working Group is to identify current agency- specific and jointly funded (a) research projects, programs and initiatives and (b) priorities and opportunities, in the Social, Behavioral and Economic (SBE) sciences. Data collected will include budget information. Current Status

13. Critical Infrastructure Protection Subcommittee PRE- DECISIONAL DRAFT – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION National R&D Plan for Critical Infrastructure Protection June 2004 Version 6.SBE Theme 9 – Social, Economic and Behavioral Issues Current Status

14. The National Strategy for Homeland Security, July 2002 Develop systems for detecting hostile intent. Terrorism ultimately requires individual human beings to carry out murderous actions. These individuals, whether they intend to commandeer an aircraft, detonate a suicide bomb, or sneak illicit material through customs, may behave in a manner that reveals their criminal intent. Current Status

15. OSTP/DHS Strategy for Homeland Defense Accomplishments / Ongoing Activities: • The Intelligence Community is sponsoring research on the detection of deception. • The Center for Advanced Study of Language (University of Maryland) is supported by the Department of Defense to design and implement a research agenda that will help us identify universal verbal (language content-related, including both spoken and written forms) and non-verbal (behavioral and auditory) cross cultural cues in deception. • Research at the University of South Carolina, supported by the DOD Polygraph Institute, combines event-related brain wave measures and fMRI with the goal of developing a model of the underlying memory, attention and salience processes that are engaged when an individual lies. Current Status

16. OSTP/DHS Strategy for Homeland Defense Accomplishments / Ongoing Activities: • The Transportation Security Administration (Hughes Technical Center) is supporting research on the detection of deception and criminal intent. • The Transportation Security Administration is supporting Long-Term Applied Research Grants on how to maximize screener performance at airports and within other transportation systems, so that 1) individuals with intent and capacity to harm can be identified before harm occurs, and 2) dangerous and threatening items can be detected before getting onto airplanes and other modes of transportation. • NSF/ Directorate for Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences supports investigator-initiated research on the neural basis of deception using established neuroimaging technologies (fMRI) and via the development of new technologies, such as diffuse optical imaging (DOI). Current Status

17. OSTP/DHS Strategy for Homeland Defense Accomplishments / Ongoing Activities: • NSF/ Directorate for Computer & Information Science & Engineering supports investigator-initiated research on developing computer systems for automatic analysis of spontaneous facial expressions, with a focus on the scientific study of the role of facial expressions in deception. • DHS Released a Broad Agency Announcement for a university-based Homeland Security Center on the Social and Behavioral Aspects of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism. Among other goals, this Center will develop the understanding and tools necessary to improve the prediction, early detection and prevention of terrorist attacks and terrorist behaviors. Current Status

18. National Institutes of Health Behavioral, Social and Economic Sciences Research Related to Anti-Terrorism While few institutes and centers at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) fund research directly related to terrorism, many fund research whose findings may be relevant for anti-terrorism efforts. Each of the twenty-seven institutes and centers (ICs) of NIH was queried about funded research that related to the four broad categories of research thought to be relevant for activities of the Social, Behavioral, and Education Sciences (SBE) Working Group of the National Science and Technology Council Anti-Terrorism Task Force: · Surveillance/detection · Prevention/preparedness · Consequences/responses · Attribution Current Status

19. NIH: stress research • NIMH supported research after natural and human-caused disasters, including the bombings of the Federal building in Oklahoma City and U.S. embassies in Africa. NIMH also supports basic research in affect and the etiology of various disorders, including Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. • NCI supports general projects relevant to the management of past traumatic stress in cancer patients and survivors. For example, the Long Term Cancer Survivors Initiative, funded in 1998, focused on questions related to the physiological and psychosocial experiences of cancer survivors and interventions to promote positive outcomes. • NINR held a workshop on Illness Prevention and Symptom Management from Chemical and Biologic Agentsto investigate how to disseminate research findings in the area of managing disaster exposure to chemical and biological agents. Current Status

20. NIH: Decision research and communications strategies • NCI: Risk Communication Bibliography contains nearly 400 searchable references to published documents on the communication of public health hazards.A new 5-year grant to be funded in April 2002 aims to identify and reduce cognitive biases created by decision aids. • NIDDK: The National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases supports a number of programs involved in the mass dispersal of information. • NIMH: Building in part on basic behavioral research, a body of more applied research has explored ways to communicate with at-risk populations to shape attitudes, affect, and behavior that improve health and prevent disease. Current Status

21. NIH: Health surveys • NIMH: National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R), National Survey of African Americans and their adolescent components are interviewing more than 26,000 Americans in 2001-2002. • National Health Interview Survey and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) that annually survey large numbers of children, adolescents and adults on a range of health, mental health, insurance coverage and service use issues. • NCI: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute is the most authoritative source of information on cancer incidence and survival in the United States. • NIDCR: Since over 60% of Americans visit a dentist at least once a year. Dental offices are distributed widely throughout urban and suburban sites, and also located in rural regions, which could provide some unique opportunities for dentists to serve in the “front-lines” in health risk appraisal and detection, given appropriate tools and targeted education. • NIA: Two large studies collecting information pertinent to anti-terrorism: Information on Risk of Bioterrorism in The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and Information on Risk of Bioterrorism in The Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID).

22. Department of Homeland Security Executive Secretary Commandant of Coast Guard (1) Legislative Affairs Secretary ---------------------------------- Deputy Secretary Inspector General Public Affairs General Counsel Citizenship & Immigration Service Ombudsman (1) State and Local Coordination Director, Bureau of Citizenship & Immigration Services (1) Civil Rights and Civil Liberties Special Assistant to the Secretary (private sector) Director of the Secret Service Small & Disadvantaged Business Privacy Officer Chief of Staff International Affairs National Capital Region Coordination Current Status Counter Narcotics Shared Services Under Secretary Management Under Secretary Science and Technology Under Secretary Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Under Secretary Border & Transportation Security Under Secretary Emergency Preparedness and Response Note (1): Effective March 1st, 2003

23. Department of Homeland Security Executive Secretary Commandant of Coast Guard (1) Legislative Affairs Secretary ---------------------------------- Deputy Secretary Inspector General Public Affairs General Counsel Citizenship & Immigration Service Ombudsman (1) State and Local Coordination Director, Bureau of Citizenship & Immigration Services (1) Civil Rights and Civil Liberties Special Assistant to the Secretary (private sector) Director of the Secret Service (1) Small & Disadvantaged Business Privacy Officer Chief of Staff International Affairs National Capital Region Coordination Current Status Counter Narcotics Shared Services Under Secretary Management Under Secretary Science and Technology Under Secretary Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection Under Secretary Border & Transportation Security Under Secretary Emergency Preparedness and Response Note (1): Effective March 1st, 2003

24. DHS: Science & Technology Threat Vulnerability & Technology Assessment Biometrics (including acceptance; NAS) Border security; travel identity systems Credibility Assessment “Behavioral aspects of terrorism” National Visual Analytics Center, to provide tools & research to develop tools for managing and representing enormous amounts of diverse data and information Current Status

25. DHS: Information Analysis & Infrastructure Protection National Cyber Security Division, to monitor cyber security incidents and coordinate responses DHS: Border & Transportation Security TSA Screeners Federal marshals (tens of thousands of flights) U.S. Coast Guard Maritime Domestic Awareness (identify elements that threaten U.S. before they reach our ports) Current Status

26. DHS: Emergency Preparedness & Response Grants to states and territories to enhance first responder capabilities National Response Plan (PDD-5), to integrate prevention, preparedness, response & recovery plans National Incident Management system, to create unified structure for Federal, state, local incident responses TOPOFF2 (Top Officials) exercise Citizen Corps, to make communities safer, stronger, better prepared Current Status

27. DHS: Homeland Security Centers Program Homeland Security Center for Behavioral and Social Aspects of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism (Sept. 30 ’04) [Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events; UCSC] [National Center for Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Disease Defense; Texas A&M] National Center for Food Protection and Defense; University of Minnesota] Current Status

28. Other parts of the federal agency world: • CDC (DHHS): Decision making, first responder behaviors and teams; behavioral • issues in bioterrorism • e.g., World Trade Center Evacuation Study (Columbia University) • what did people do? • CIA, S&T • U.S. Geological Survey: using geological tools in combination with social/ • methods; responses to natural, technological and military hazards. • Department of Education, IES: behavioral change and prevention campaigns • e.g., Safe and Drug Free Schools Current Status

29. Other parts of the federal agency world: • National Park Service: economic significance of parks and monuments • e.g., how to care for spontaneous memorials • EPA: effective and rapid risk assessment capabilities • e.g., safe buildings, water security, improvement of risk assessment capabilities • Department of Commerce • e.g., NIST analysis of human behavior in egress • e.g., Bureau of Economic Analysis Current Status

30. Other parts of the federal agency world: • Department of Agriculture: Economic Research Service • e.g., human response to food toxins • NASA: human behavior in extreme environments; health policy; risk assessment; • behavioral components of technology adoption; remote sensing • Department of Defense: biosciences, understanding human decision • making, human dynamics and organization, human factors engineering • e.g., DARPA program on deception detection Current Status

31. Other parts of the federal agency world: • National Science Foundation • e.g., Human Social Dynamics Initiative (includes deception research) • e.g., Small Grants for Exploratory Research (Vulnerability Theory and Decision Making; Scenarios Tracking & Intelligence Collection & Analysis; Emotion & Cognition In Moral Judgment) • Department of Justice: National Institute of Justice • e.g., study to examine patterns of conduct in preparatory and ancillary attack • behaviors; study to examine financial exchanges and support patterns for • terrorist networks; study to examine the overlap between terrorist networks • and criminal networks; study to interview Arab American communities and • leadership for how to build trust in antiterrorism campaigns. Current Status

32. Joint initiatives “Two security evaluation workshops” Select Committee on Intelligence, as part of appropriations/authorization for Intelligence and intelligence-related activities of the U.S. Government (S 1025): with regard to “behavioral, psychological, and physiological” aspects of security evaluations, to (i) catalog, (ii) develop a research agenda; (iii) distinguish short- and long-term research; (iv) recommend. Meetings on Suicide/martyr terrorists: CIA, DHS, NIJ Deception/deception detection: CIA/ITIC: June 2003 CIA S&T: July 2003 CIA/RAND: June 2004 “Intuition” in law enforcement & intelligence: FBI Academy & DOJ; June, 2004 Current Status

33. Putting people and efforts together Current Status

34. Knowing what we do Social, Behavioral & Economic Subcommittee TERMS OF REFERENCE INTERAGENCY WORKING GROUP ON SBE PORTFOLIO ASSESSMENT AND PRIORITY SETTING Goals: The goal of the Interagency Working Group is to identify current agency-specific and jointly funded (a) research projects, programs and initiatives and (b) priorities and opportunities, in the Social, Behavioral and Economic (SBE) sciences. Data collected will include budget information. Challenges

35. Category of Science Concepts of self; self-esteem Behavioral Sciences Child development Learning, cognition, memory Lifespan development Motivational processes (including feeding and sleeping) Reproductive behaviors, parenting Abnormal behaviors, neuroses Affect Psychoses Action and performance Risk perception, decision making Human/machine interactions Biorhythms, homeostasis Sensory processing Behavioral genetics Perceptual processing Computational modeling and theory development Linguistics, language processes Attitudes, beliefs Religion, individual value systems ? Social, Behavioral, & Economic Sciences ?

36. Evaluation, impact analysis Sociological Sciences Economic Sciences Conflict, aggression, affiliation Demography Social control, crime, violence, victims Intra- and inter-group interactions Financial economics, international finance Property rights, intellectual property Stereotyping Immigrant, refugee, and displaced groups International trade theory and policy Institutional economics Systems religions International development and reform Computational modeling and theory development Education, educational systems Health economics Game theory Welfare economics Groups, organizational behaviors Government finance Cultural anthropology Econometrics Environmental and resource economics Computational modeling and theory development Cross-cultural interactions Social organization Collective and convergent behaviors Economics of education Ethnic and racial minorities and majorities Risk analysis, decision analysis Challenges

37. Political / Ethical Sciences SBE Methodologies Citizenship, government, comparative government and international relations, political behavior, political economy, and political institutions Legal and social change, procedural justice Development, application, and extension of formal models and methodology for social and behavioral research, including methods for improving measurement Domestic and international conflict, international political economy, party activism, political tolerance Cults, gangs, prisons, criminal networks Research on methodological aspects of new or existing procedures for data collection, including methodology for survey research and real-time data collection Effects of education, urbanization, globalization, immigration, poverty and wealth, and marginalization of state and nonstate groups Emerging democracies, theocracies and secular states Interactions among science, technology, and society; construction of scientific and technological knowledge and institutions Privacy concerns and impacts, and ethical issues related to identification procedures, data mining, and the use of public or private databases for security Research to evaluate or compare existing data bases and collection procedures, the development of formal models that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries, the collection of unique databases with cross disciplinary applications and implications Computational modeling and theory development

38. Challenges : Some 30 Federal departments and agencies

39. DOE DHS Data Analysis/Knowledge Management & Visualization Challenges Opportunities OSTP /NSTC NIH NSF Self report

40. Knowing who is doing what NIJ DHS Challenges : CIA

41. Challenges Opportunities DHS Martyr bombers (suicide terrorists) NIJ CIA

42. Does anyone know anybody ? • Scientists • NIH • NSF • DHS • DOD • OSTP Challenges :

43. Challenges Opportunities • Training • Engagement • listening • listening • listening • talking

44. Knowing who knows what • Science: • public • scrutinized • shared • published • (commit) • Operators: • secret • secret • secret • secret Challenges :

45. Challenges Opportunities S c i e n c e Text analysis methods Data mining Statistical tools Internet Bunch of guys Power Agency-specific rules

46. Conclusions • Behavioral and social sciences R&D • relevant to counter terrorism R&D • reside in many Federal agencies • Viewed as relevant and important (9/11) • Long-term deliverables dependent on • policy • cultural context • new technologies