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Key elements of the National Fire Danger Rating System for South Africa

Key elements of the National Fire Danger Rating System for South Africa. The nature of a National Fire Danger Rating System. Adoption of a model: Candidate Models. - McArthur Forest Model - McArthur Grassland Model - US Model - Lowveld Model.

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Key elements of the National Fire Danger Rating System for South Africa

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  1. Key elements of the National Fire Danger Rating System for South Africa

  2. The nature of a National Fire Danger Rating System

  3. Adoption of a model: Candidate Models - McArthur Forest Model - McArthur Grassland Model - US Model - Lowveld Model

  4. Similarities and differencesbetween candidate models

  5. Selection of a Fire Danger Rating Model • McArthur Forest Model: Unable to deal with green-up and curing. • McArthur Grassland Model: Green-up and curing requires estimates. • Lowveld Model: Unable to deal with green-up and curing and has no basis in theory. • US NFDRS Model: Ability to model fuel moisture content, model green-up and curing and provides many indices that address different aspects of fire danger.

  6. Support for Integrated Veldfire Management • The Act requires that the model must underpin a system that will assist in the identification of dangerous activities, and of the precautions that should be taken, for each rating • Model should be able to support a range of activities related to fire management under conditions of low or moderate fire danger (e.g. being able to decide whether or not to initiate prescribed burns based on the risk of a prescribed burn becoming uncontrollable).

  7. Support for Integrated Veldfire Management • Burning Index • Energy Release Component • Keetch-Byram Drought Index • Spread Component • Ignition Component

  8. Fire Danger Ratings

  9. Veldfire Risk Assessment • A need to identify areas of uniform risk • RISK = Likelihood + Consequence • Determine vegetation types for the 6 biomes in South Africa. • Classified veldfire risk for each vegetation type. • Overlay municipality boundaries over vegetation type map.

  10. Likelihood of Fire

  11. Consequence of Fire(Australian Std. 1999)

  12. Levels of Risk (Australian Std. 1999)

  13. Risk Classification of Municipalities

  14. Fire Danger Regions of South Africa • The Act requires the country to be divided into fire danger regions. • 53 weather forecasting districts collapsed into 42 fire danger regions on the basis of similar levels of risk. • Each region is to be such that the fire danger is sufficiently uniform to allow for a single rating which is meaningful for the entire region.

  15. Fuel models to be used in each region Fuel model B - California Chaparral:Many of the fuel model properties embedded within the fuel model adequately represent the fynbos vegetation characteristics found in South Africa. Fuel Model C - Pine-Grass Savanna:Grasslands are a predominant fuel complex in South Africa, and these grasses experience cycles of green-up and curing. Fuel model C has a significant load of fine dead and live herbaceous (grass) fuel, and as such it should simulate green-up and curing through the year.

  16. Fuel model allocation to fire danger regions

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