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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014 Proposed Methodology

Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014 Proposed Methodology. Background. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998. The Commission conducted a study of felony embezzlement cases to examine the relationship between the amount embezzled and sentencing outcomes

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Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014 Proposed Methodology

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  1. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014 Proposed Methodology

  2. Background

  3. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 • The Commission conducted a study of felony embezzlement cases to examine the relationship between the amount embezzled and sentencing outcomes • The Commission analyzed a sample of felony embezzlement cases sentenced under truth-in-sentencing laws between January 1, 1995, and June 30, 1997

  4. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 • The primary data source was Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports, specifically the narrative section describing details of the offense • Dollar amount • Duration of the embezzlement act • Type of victim • Offender’s relationship with the victim

  5. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 Analysis revealed a relationship between dollar amount embezzled and whether or not the offender received a sentence of more than six months Percentage of Embezzlers Receiving Incarceration >6 Months by Amount Embezzled

  6. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 Commission approved a modification to Section A of the Larceny guidelines to increase the likelihood that offenders who embezzle larger amounts will be recommended for incarceration more than six months (Section C)

  7. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 Analysis conducted only on those cases resulting in probation or a jail sentence of up to 6 months revealed a correlation between the amount embezzled and the sentence outcome Type of Disposition by Amount Embezzled

  8. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 Commission approved a modification to Section B of the Larceny guidelines to increase the likelihood that offenders who embezzle larger amounts will be recom-mended for a jail sentence of up to 6 months (versus probation without incarceration)

  9. Embezzlement Study 1997-1998 Analysis of cases resulting in prison terms revealed that, in over half of the upward departures, judges cited a large dollar amount as the reason for the lengthier sentence Commission approved a modification to Section C of the Larceny guidelines to increase the length of sentence recommended for offenders who embezzle larger amounts

  10. Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 • The Commission conducted a study of larceny and fraud cases to examine the relationship between the amount of money or property stolen and sentencing outcomes • The Commission studied a sample of felony larceny and fraud cases sentenced in CY1998 and CY1999 • Sample excluded embezzlement because it had been examined in the previous study • Certain other offenses were also excluded, such as motor vehicle theft and forging public record

  11. Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 • Study sample • 200 grand larceny • 600 other larceny and fraud • Supplemental data collected on factors of interest that were not contained in the automated data • Narratives from the Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) reports • Court records • 51 cases had to be dropped (cases actually involved motor vehicle theft or the wrong VCC was used to identify the offense) • Final sample was 749 cases (309 larceny; 440 fraud)

  12. Data Collection Form Sample Case

  13. Data Collection Form Sample Case

  14. Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 • Dollar Value of Money or Property Stolen • in Felony Larceny Cases

  15. Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 • Based on the results of the analysis, the Commission could consider adding a factor to the sentencing guidelines to account for the value of money or property stolen in larceny/fraud cases • Factors gathered through supplemental data were tested to try to improve the predictive ability of the guidelines model

  16. Larceny and Fraud Study 1999-2000 • Although many variations of the factors were tried, models with factors that were statistically significant were only marginally better than the existing guidelines model • The best models involved both dollar amount and a factor related to restitution and/or victim type • Adding such factors would have added a layer of complexity for users when scoring Commission took no action

  17. Proposed Methodology for 2013-2014 Study

  18. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology Offenders will be identified from the Sentencing Guidelines database Identification of Offenders for the Study: Felony Sentencing Events with Larceny or Fraud as the Most Serious Offense FY2011 – FY2013* Total = 21,568 * FY2013 data is incomplete

  19. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology • A large sample is preferred, as some cases will be eliminated in subsequent stages • Supplemental data may reveal a conviction for an excluded offense • Wrong VCC • Available data may be insufficient to include the offender • Strategy is similar to the original Larceny/Fraud Study in 1999-2000 Selection of Study Sample:

  20. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology • Sample will be based on a stratified random sampling technique to under-sample grand larceny cases and over-sample other types of larcenies • To ensure adequate number of cases for non-grand larceny in the sample • Sample will include embezzlement • Length of time since previous study • Judges frequently cite dollar amount when sentencing above the guidelines Selection of Study Sample:

  21. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology Selection of Study Sample For the analysis, the sampled cases will be weighted to reflect each subgroup’s actual proportion in the population

  22. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology Identification of Offenses for the Study

  23. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology Identification of Offenses for the Study

  24. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology Dollar value of money or property stolen Type(s) of items Damage of items Insurance coverage for items Location of offense Duration of offense Number of victims Type of victim(s) Offender relationship to victim Money/items recovered Status of restitution at time of sentencing Restitution ordered at sentencing Supplemental Data Collection

  25. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Methodology Pre-Sentence/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) Reports • About 35% of cases will have a PSI Commonwealth’s Attorneys’ files Victim Impact Statements Court records Probation Office records Data Sources

  26. Larceny and Fraud Study 2013-2014Proposed Work Plan October 2013 – June 2014 Data collection June 2014 – August 2014 Data analysis September 2014 Present preliminary results November 2014 Present proposal for guidelines revision (if supported by data) 2014 Annual Report

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