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Considerations for a Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL

Considerations for a Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL. Charles Griffiths NCEE. Issues to Address. Interaction of the various models Baseline Issues that came up repeatedly Conveying the economic subtleties Things that we are missing Have we accomplished our goals?

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Considerations for a Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL

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  1. Considerations for a Benefit-Cost Analysis of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL Charles Griffiths NCEE

  2. Issues to Address • Interaction of the various models • Baseline • Issues that came up repeatedly • Conveying the economic subtleties • Things that we are missing • Have we accomplished our goals? • General comments

  3. State WIPS Cost Model Trading Model Ecosystem Services 6 CBPO Models Other Benefits (e.g. groundwater and sediment) Property Benefits Benefits - Costs Stated Preference Survey Recreation Fishing Benefits NOAA Ecological Models Commercial Fishing Benefits

  4. Baseline • Nothing included in the WIP input deck • Meeting the Tributary Strategies • Would not meet the TMDL • Would not be met until after 2025 • What would have been accomplished under the Tributary strategies by 2025.

  5. Repeated Issues of Concern • We are focusing on the average effect by we might be more worried about extreme events • Correctly specifying the timing is important • Point/Non-point trades for BMPs • Terrestrial benefits • Upstream benefits are important and may be missed due to lack of data. • Can people understand water quality measures or do we need more defined economic endpoints.

  6. Subtle Economic Points • The impacts on an undistorted secondary market (i.e., no externalities) should not be included in the benefit-cost analysis • Employment effects are not included in the benefit-cost analysis (unless is chronic underemployment or we are using regional standing), but additional wage expenditures are opportunity costs. • There is a potential overlap between benefit categories so you cannot simply add estimated benefits to get the total

  7. What have we missed • Fish species • Ecosystem Services • Nonuse value and other stated preference information (initially)

  8. David Simpson’s questions CBPO & NCEE are charged with conducting CBA; are we on the right track? What wheels have you already invented? How can we help each other moving forward? Improving water quality benefits analysis more generally.

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